ATL: ISAIAS - Models

[SFLcane]

Although GFS is a little stronger, condition are not favorable in the Bahamas. Can see the shear on RH, which also helps advect the dry air into the circulation, pretty much killing it

https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/5fc02303919379ebb8581ed511d90964d0c6884cac1f15ac2c1c796f926c1801.png

All the models have pretty much latched on to this idea in the sw atl. For now a short lived weak tc seems reasonable.

[AxaltaRacing24]

But dry air is a HUGE problem.

I don't get it though. If dry air is such a huge problem this season, why is there forecast to be so many storms?

I don’t know? Honestly there seems to a lot more dry air around than normal this season so far. Kind of reminds me of 2013 in a way.

Honest question.

If there were fewer storms this month, like in 2017 for example, would have you been saying the same thing?

because conditions were just as dry and hostile (if not more) during that July and well into august.

i just feel like people are using storms that shouldn't have even been there in the first place to doubt the season in JULY.

[SoupBone]

I know this is the models thread, but here's a quick read on SAL.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/misc/sal/info.html

[StruThiO]

I don’t know? Honestly there seems to a lot more dry air around than normal this season so far. Kind of reminds me of 2013 in a way.

Ding ding ding there it is! Time to take a shot

[Beef Stew]

Obviously conditions are still highly subject to change, but should 92L end up taking a more northerly path past the Lesser Antilles (as suggested in some of the more recent runs), it could well be plagued by less-than-favorable conditions there. The environment may become more conductive north of Andros, but 92L has to make it there first.

[ConvergenceZone]

But dry air is a HUGE problem.

I don't get it though. If dry air is such a huge problem this season, why is there forecast to be so many storms?

Man you've posted here since 2005, SAL is always a factor this time of the year, subsiding right before peak season begins in mid-August.

Yea, you are right about 2005, which is also why I know that SAL seems stronger this year. I mean how many times do we hear stories about the SAL making it across the Atlantic to the USA?.... Not many.... But It make weather headlines this year....

[sma10]

I don't get it though. If dry air is such a huge problem this season, why is there forecast to be so many storms?

I don’t know? Honestly there seems to a lot more dry air around than normal this season so far. Kind of reminds me of 2013 in a way.

Honest question.

If there were fewer storms this month, like in 2017 for example, would have you been saying the same thing?

because conditions were just as dry and hostile (if not more) during that July and well into august.

i just feel like people are using storms that shouldn't have even been there in the first place to doubt the season in JULY.

Yeah, I think people have just been bedazzled by the season so far. Typically, we should be on, like letter, B right now lol.

[Hd444]

Although GFS is a little stronger, condition are not favorable in the Bahamas. Can see the shear on RH, which also helps advect the dry air into the circulation, pretty much killing it

https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/5fc02303919379ebb8581ed511d90964d0c6884cac1f15ac2c1c796f926c1801.png

All the models have pretty much latched on to this idea in the sw atl. For now a short lived weak tc seems reasonable.

Conditions look pretty good in the sw bahamas. Para gfs/ cmc / navgem all intensity it.

[SoupBone]

I don't get it though. If dry air is such a huge problem this season, why is there forecast to be so many storms?

Man you've posted here since 2005, SAL is always a factor this time of the year, subsiding right before peak season begins in mid-August.

Yea, you are right about 2005, which is also why I know that SAL seems stronger this year. I mean how many times do we hear stories about the SAL making it across the Atlantic to the USA?.... Not many.... But It make weather headlines this year....

My point is that SAL will be here for a few more weeks impacting these systems. It may not kill them off, but it might take the punch out of a few of them. Read the link I posted.

[Hammy]

But dry air is a HUGE problem.

I don't get it though. If dry air is such a huge problem this season, why is there forecast to be so many storms?

I don’t know? Honestly there seems to a lot more dry air around than normal this season so far. Kind of reminds me of 2013 in a way.

2013 had WAY more shear than what's out there and the waves that came off barely had anything resembling a moisture envelope let alone anything this large--not to mention after awhile half the waves weren't even making it off the African coast in the first place and just fizzed over land. I think the problem (and I addressed this in the CFS discussion) a lot of people started thinking 2005 repeat and it's not meeting that--the pace of development we've seen simply isn't going to sustain itself on a nonstop basis, and we even saw that after Fay dissipated and some here are already forgetting we did have a ten day lull between.

I think most of us got spoiled by having near rapid-fire development from mid-May to early June.

[ConvergenceZone]

I don't get it though. If dry air is such a huge problem this season, why is there forecast to be so many storms?

I don’t know? Honestly there seems to a lot more dry air around than normal this season so far. Kind of reminds me of 2013 in a way.

Honest question.

If there were fewer storms this month, like in 2017 for example, would have you been saying the same thing?

because conditions were just as dry and hostile (if not more) during that July and well into august.

i just feel like people are using storms that shouldn't have even been there in the first place to doubt the season in JULY.

I just feel like the dry air is more prevalent this year. Maybe it's just being talked about more.... Like in my previous post I mentioned how the SAL making it to the USA made weather headlines this year, and that doesn't happen very often. I think the Gulf may be VERY active, but I'm still waiting for a sign that the dry air is on it's way out in the Atlantic, and we are less than a week away from August.... Hey, I can be wrong, I've been wrong plenty of times before

[AutoPenalti]

I don't get it though. If dry air is such a huge problem this season, why is there forecast to be so many storms?

I don’t know? Honestly there seems to a lot more dry air around than normal this season so far. Kind of reminds me of 2013 in a way.

I've received an important image regarding this comment. https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/733554252567281754/737531594566533161/101029758_606581713541441_3459063323285258240_n.png

By the way, SAL is a yearly issue. But I mean, there's no point in explaining something to someone who doesn't actually want to learn ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Okay, that’s funny and all but was that really necessary?

[caneseddy]

CMC starts to intensify it north of the islands and eventually has a hurricane scraping the Outer Banks heading out to sea

[Hammy]

Anybody else starting to doubt the Euro? I've been checking between the models and it seems it's the only one that is developing the southern portion of the wave--despite the greatest low level spin seemingly being on the north.

[SoupBone]

CMC starts to intensify it north of the islands and eventually has a hurricane scraping the Outer Banks heading out to sea

Yeah and super fast too. That thing would be trucking it.

[caneseddy]

Anybody else starting to doubt the Euro? I've been checking between the models and it seems it's the only one that is developing the southern portion of the wave--despite the greatest low level spin seemingly being on the north.

Right now I’m doubting all the models until something actually does form, if at all

[Hammy]

Anybody else starting to doubt the Euro? I've been checking between the models and it seems it's the only one that is developing the southern portion of the wave--despite the greatest low level spin seemingly being on the north.

Right now I’m doubting all the models until something actually does form, if at all

It would be funny if they're all wrong and it just splits into two systems.

[NotSparta]

Anybody else starting to doubt the Euro? I've been checking between the models and it seems it's the only one that is developing the southern portion of the wave--despite the greatest low level spin seemingly being on the north.

At the same time, the south side has convection while the north is struggling with that. S and W has warmer SSTs so it's not a big surprise to see more convection there but it would probably favor the southern part more

[caneseddy]

CMC starts to intensify it north of the islands and eventually has a hurricane scraping the Outer Banks heading out to sea

Yeah and super fast too. That thing would be trucking it.

No kidding. Already has it scraping the Outer Banks by next Tuesday

[caneseddy]

Anybody else starting to doubt the Euro? I've been checking between the models and it seems it's the only one that is developing the southern portion of the wave--despite the greatest low level spin seemingly being on the north.

At the same time, the south side has convection while the north is struggling with that. S and W has warmer SSTs so it's not a big surprise to see more convection there but it would probably favor the southern part more

To my untrained eyes it looks like the most recent runs are initializing with the southern part now. Correct me if I’m wrong