ATL: ETA - Models

[Nuno]

I'm a bit hesitant to lean on any particular run or solution until we see how Eta holds up and where it comes back out over water. Seems to be a good bet that models want to initially take it N or NE but hard to deduce anything else.

[supercane4867]

In case anyone has not checked 00z GFS-para...

[supercane4867]

12z GFS back into the Caribbean heading SW

[AutoPenalti]

In case anyone has not checked 00z GFS-para...

https://i.imgur.com/OsXcDJl.gif

Run of the year.


Throw it out.

[cjrciadt]

In case anyone has not checked 00z GFS-para...

https://i.imgur.com/OsXcDJl.gif

Umm Wow..
I call this the Florida Run-Off run.

[boca]

GFS pushes Eta back to the Caribbean and I’m afraid it will ramp up again and threaten us with a more potent storm.

[SconnieCane]

In case anyone has not checked 00z GFS-para...
https://i.imgur.com/OsXcDJl.gif

"The Ultimate Fujiwhara"

Remember when Laura and Marco were supposed to be "Double Trouble?"

[Spacecoast]

Looks like it's going to go the other way now (West or NW) @ 160 hours.

Seems to be following the 6z AEMI track....
The ensembles are widely dispersed, which seems to accurately reflect the uncertainty (post-CA) of any specific tracks after 72 hrs.
All deterministic runs, or individual ensemble member tracks will be low confidence. The OFCL, and Ensemble mean tracks will be the closest thing to accurate we will have for the next couple of days, IMHO.

[shiny-pebble]

In case anyone has not checked 00z GFS-para...

https://i.imgur.com/OsXcDJl.gif

I actually audibly laughed watching this. Twins!

[supercane4867]

Heading for Louisiana?

[gatorcane]

12Z GFS builds a ridge over Florida:

[TheStormExpert]

We can throw out pretty much every model solution at this point. Let’s just see how things evolve once it emerges in the Gulf of Honduras later this week. May not even leave the NW Caribbean, but who knows. The ensembles haven’t been much better either.

[TheStormExpert]

Another Gulf Coast hit? Why am I not surprised. The ridge over Florida seems much more believable than a trough or weakness with the +NAO.

[ronjon]

12z GFS into Apalachicola at 288 hrs - 988 mb.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=seus&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2020110212&fh=288

[TheStormExpert]

 https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1323297888794017794

[ronjon]

12z CMC and GFS pretty similar with 1001-02 ish low pressure in the Yuc straits at hour 198.

[tronbunny]

In case anyone has not checked 00z GFS-para...

https://i.imgur.com/OsXcDJl.gif

I actually audibly laughed watching this. Twins!

I did too, and my spouse wanted to know what I found funny. Problem is he hasn't studied this stuff and he thinks I'm making fun of his lack of understanding

[TheStormExpert]

12z GFS and CMC are pretty identical. Weak/broad low in the NW Caribbean that tries to shoot NE but gets shunted west around Florida before heading towards the north Gulf Coast.

[Spacecoast]

We can throw out pretty much every model solution at this point. Let’s just see how things evolve once it emerges in the Gulf of Honduras later this week. May not even leave the NW Caribbean, but who knows. The ensembles haven’t been much better either.

I disagree.
Ensembles are specifically designed to provide a wide range of possible solutions, by perturbing the intial observed conditions/ and physics.
Sometimes the ensemble members are tightly clustered around one, or two solutions, which means there is high certainty of those one, or two tracks.
Sometimes the ensemble members are widely dispersed, which is essentially saying anything is possible, and any track forecast will be low confidence, or high statistical spread.
Deterministic runs do not provide this measure of certainty / confidence.

I would be highly suspicious of any tightly clustered ensemble, (or deterministic) runs of Eta after:
1. CA landfall,
2. interacting with mountainous terrian,
3. exiting CA,
4. reforming,
5. potentially interracting with land over cuba,
6. interacting with cold front(s)

That is why the ensembles are screaming "we have no clue what will happen after 96 hrs", which is at this point,is a very accurate statement of the situation.
They will eventually start clustering together, and give us a clearer picture of what will happen (probably after exiting CA).

[SouthFLTropics]

That GFS-Para run reminds me of a ride at the local county fair...WHEEEEEEEEE!!! I normally don't rule out any model run but this one can go in the waste basket.