ATL: IOTA - Remnants - Discussion

[Do_For_Love]

Not to downplay the intensity at landfall, which is looking quite scary right now; but, regardless of what it turns out to be, the big story by far will almost certainly turn out to be the flooding rains because this area is normally so susceptible and now this is coming less than 2 weeks after the terrible Eta.

Yes indeed. The water is usually the most damaging impact of tropical systems. Having two in a row like this is just messed up. It almost seems like the first half of the season there was a target on the north gulf coast and now it has shifted to central America.

[Do_For_Love]

It looks like Iota might be trying to clear out a decently large eye on the longwave IR, similar to what's been depicted by the HWRF.

[aspen]

The entire eye is clearing now, not just a small section as before. Convection is rapidly warming in the eye and cooling around it on all sides; previously, it was thin on the NW side.

[Ryxn]

Wow, eye is looking much bigger now. Scary situation for Central America.

[Blown Away]

Not to downplay the intensity at landfall, which is looking quite scary right now; but, regardless of what it turns out to be, the big story by far will almost certainly turn out to be the flooding rains because this area is normally so susceptible and now this is coming less than 2 weeks after the terrible Eta.

Yes indeed. The water is usually the most damaging impact of tropical systems. Having two in a row like this is just messed up. It almost seems like the first half of the season there was a target on the north gulf coast and now it has shifted to central America.

Yeah, if Iota stays on this track it will landfall @20 N of Bilwi, mostly natural lands around the landfall point.

[supercane4867]

[ElectricStorm]

https://emojipedia-us.s3.dualstack.us-west-1.amazonaws.com/thumbs/320/apple/271/eyes_1f440.png

https://i.imgur.com/kyTdjC7.jpg

Cat 4 by morning at this rate...

[aspen]

https://emojipedia-us.s3.dualstack.us-west-1.amazonaws.com/thumbs/320/apple/271/eyes_1f440.png

https://i.imgur.com/kyTdjC7.jpg

Cat 4 by morning at this rate...

It will easily be at least 105-110 kt by 7am tomorrow. I’m not going to stay up for recon, but I’m going to predict that find a 950-955 mbar borderline Cat 2/3.

[Chris90]

Iota is reminding me a bit of Maria '17 with its satellite appearance and intensification. Maria didn't fully clear her eye until she was knocking on the door of Cat 5, and she really took off like a rocket after she passed the 950-960mb stage. Iota's fastest intensification may still be in the future. Horrendous that this storm is going to hit really close to the same area as Eta with a probable similar intensity, only a couple of weeks later.

[skyline385]

I'm looking at the WV that you suggested. I dont see any degradation, sorry, but I dont see it.

You dont see the dry air interacting with the outer spiral bands in the NW quad in this loop?

https://imgur.com/a/c3dr6Zo

I do see what you’re saying but that phenomenon is actually excess mass going away whilst the deepest convection fires up at the surface. When a storm strengthens, all of that excess convection has to go somewhere.

At times in can actually be a sign against EWRC happening anytime soon as if that convection wasn’t exhaling fast enough, it would possibly consolidate inward and eventually work towards the eyewall and choke it as that kind of mass would end up being stronger than the eyewall if not exhaled.

Looks like you got it right, eye is clearing and new spiral bands are extending out again

[aspen]

When should recon arrive? 12-ish?

[ScottNAtlanta]

You dont see the dry air interacting with the outer spiral bands in the NW quad in this loop?

https://imgur.com/a/c3dr6Zo

I do see what you’re saying but that phenomenon is actually excess mass going away whilst the deepest convection fires up at the surface. When a storm strengthens, all of that excess convection has to go somewhere.

At times in can actually be a sign against EWRC happening anytime soon as if that convection wasn’t exhaling fast enough, it would possibly consolidate inward and eventually work towards the eyewall and choke it as that kind of mass would end up being stronger than the eyewall if not exhaled.

Looks like you got it right, eye is clearing and new spiral bands are extending out again

I've been watching these storms for 30+ years...you learn a couple of things along the way

[ScottNAtlanta]

I'm going with at least 100kts when recon gets there in a couple of hours

[ClarCari]

You dont see the dry air interacting with the outer spiral bands in the NW quad in this loop?

https://imgur.com/a/c3dr6Zo

I do see what you’re saying but that phenomenon is actually excess mass going away whilst the deepest convection fires up at the surface. When a storm strengthens, all of that excess convection has to go somewhere.

At times in can actually be a sign against EWRC happening anytime soon as if that convection wasn’t exhaling fast enough, it would possibly consolidate inward and eventually work towards the eyewall and choke it as that kind of mass would end up being stronger than the eyewall if not exhaled.

Looks like you got it right, eye is clearing and new spiral bands are extending out again

Hurricane Rita is a perfect example of this. In her strongest days she had a perfect circular shape for quite some time due to her effecient ventilation. Her EWRC only weakened her to a 4 due to her perfect shape and had shear and dry air from a trough to her west not been a factor, she would have very easily recovered and become a 5 upon landfall. Thankfully that was never the story.

I’m curious how Iota’s will play out. A more stable core may create more devastating impacts than Eta, whose core collapsed pretty easily upon EWRC.

[toad strangler]

déjà vu all over again

[Keldeo1997]

[aspen]

>-20C pixels are showing up inside the eye! This might be a Cat 4 by the time recon arrives.

[CyclonicFury]

That eye just cleared in a hurry.

[mrbagyo]

gorgeous storm (but dangerous)

[underthwx]

gorgeous storm (but dangerous)

In weather terms...Iota is perfection...in human terms...you already said it best mrbagyo.... dangerous...