Hurricane Wilma Recon Discussion Thread

[bigmoney755]

Next pass will contain the eyewall. Looks like they're going for the NE quadrant first.

my god are you saying winds were 128kts flight level and that wasnt even the eyewall?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I expect they will find 145 knots or maybe 150 knots...This thing is really impressive right now...Don't look to much into the western quad.

[Gorky]

2 widn Maxima already.. Thats a large amount of 100kt + winds so far also. The wind field has expanded greatly, which is bad news as far as surge goes...

[mtm4319]

Next pass will contain the eyewall. Looks like they're going for the NE quadrant first.

my god are you saying winds were 128kts flight level and that wasnt even the eyewall?

I would think that isn't the eyewall since that only translates to borderline cat 3-4 winds.

[bigmoney755]

since there is an outer wind maximum that means she is about to start another erc?

[curtadams]

I think that was the eyewall. It's about the right place on the NOAA IR loop.

[CronkPSU]

from another site...

Link is at :
http://www.weathermatrix.net/tropical/2005/recon.shtml

winds at 144 gust to 147...

Time (Z) Lat Lon Altitude Dir Speed Gust Temp Dewp
04:48:00 20.08 -85.63 10014 132 117 124 47 47
04:48:30 20.06 -85.65 10007 135 107 110 50 50
04:49:00 20.03 -85.66 10000 132 101 101 50 50
04:49:30 20.01 -85.68 10017 127 93 95 53 51
04:50:00 20 -85.7 10000 124 97 98 53 51
04:50:30 19.96 -85.7 10007 121 100 102 53 51
04:51:00 19.95 -85.71 10014 119 103 105 53 51
04:51:30 19.91 -85.73 10010 119 109 113 52 50
04:52:00 19.9 -85.75 10000 119 115 116 54 50
04:52:30 19.88 -85.76 10004 119 118 120 53 50
04:53:00 19.85 -85.78 10017 119 123 124 51 50
04:53:30 19.83 -85.8 10004 118 128 129 50 50
04:54:00 19.81 -85.81 10007 118 131 132 49 49
04:54:30 19.78 -85.83 10010 119 135 138 49 49
04:55:00 19.76 -85.85 10023 117 139 140 50 50
04:55:30 19.75 -85.86 9991 116 141 141 50 50
04:56:00 19.71 -85.88 10056 115 143 147 48 48
04:56:30 19.7 -85.9 9971 119 144 145 49 49
04:57:00 19.66 -85.91 10033 118 115 125 51 51
04:57:30 19.65 -85.93 9987 117 103 106 56 55

[CronkPSU]

803
SXXX50 KNHC 210508
AF306 1324A WILMA HDOB 24 KNHC
0458 1938N 08557W 03052 5459 115 078 142 128 080 02598 0000000000
0458. 1936N 08558W 03050 5478 115 068 144 126 071 02576 0000000000
0459 1935N 08559W 03051 5497 117 059 140 130 063 02558 0000000000
0459. 1933N 08600W 03048 5511 116 046 158 132 050 02542 0000000000
0500 1931N 08600W 03052 5519 109 033 178 114 037 02537 0000000000
0500. 1930N 08601W 03050 5526 109 021 192 100 026 02528 0000000000
0501 1928N 08602W 03049 5529 116 012 198 096 014 02525 0000000000
0501. 1926N 08602W 03048 5531 110 005 192 094 008 02522 0000000000
0502 1925N 08603W 03052 5530 355 001 184 096 003 02527 0000000000
0502. 1923N 08604W 03051 5530 317 007 188 092 011 02526 0000000000
0503 1922N 08606W 03050 5526 312 017 190 096 018 02528 0000000000
0503. 1920N 08607W 03049 5521 312 025 186 102 030 02533 0000000000
0504 1919N 08608W 03051 5512 312 042 174 114 048 02544 0000000000
0504. 1918N 08609W 03052 5498 316 059 166 116 062 02558 0000000000
0505 1916N 08610W 03048 5475 314 079 160 120 085 02578 0000000000
0505. 1914N 08611W 03057 5448 315 092 150 128 099 02614 0000000000
0506 1912N 08612W 03041 5416 312 105 136 136 107 02630 0000000000
0506. 1911N 08613W 03052 5382 308 107 130 130 108 02675 0000000000
0507 1909N 08613W 03052 5345 307 112 128 128 113 02713 0000000000
0507. 1907N 08614W 03049 5310 305 111 126 126 112 02744 0000000000




136 knots

[curtadams]

Yep, that was the eyewall. Weak Cat 4.

[jkt21787]

Recon shows 128 kts Max FL winds, heights also higher, meaning a higher pressure. Looks weaker actually.

[skysummit]

Recon shows 136 kts Max FL winds, heights also higher, meaning a higher pressure. Looks weaker actually.

That's crazy. I guess eyes are deceiving.

[CronkPSU]

Recon shows 136 kts Max FL winds, heights also higher, meaning a higher pressure. Looks weaker actually.

you hit the nail on the head when you talked about shear on the western side not allowing it to regain cat 5

[wxmann_91]

Which quadrant.

Since Wilma is moving NW the northern quad would be the strongest.

[mtm4319]

Which quadrant.

Since Wilma is moving NW the northern quad would be the strongest.

NE quadrant, but that was the one that's looking the best right now on satellite.

[wxmann_91]

Which quadrant.

Since Wilma is moving NW the northern quad would be the strongest.

NE quadrant, but that was the one that's looking the best right now on satellite.

It might not be looking best on sat, but sats can lie. It means they haven't sampled the strongest quadrant, winds are probably stronger than that. And likewise, don't expect (or deny likewise) a cat 5 based on sats alone.

[djtil]

930mb...fairly significant weakening underway.

[Foladar0]

Hmm, is it just me or did the eye open on the south?

[Stratosphere747]

VM should be soon...

[jkt21787]

Pressure 930. NO CAT 5

[CronkPSU]

069
URNT12 KNHC 210516
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 21/05:01:20Z
B. 19 deg 26 min N
086 deg 02 min W
C. 700 mb 2477 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 116 deg 128 kt
G. 28 deg 019 nm
H. 930 mb
I. 10 C/ 3051 m
J. 20 C/ 3054 m
K. 9 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C35
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF306 1324A WILMA OB 09
MAX FL WIND 128 KT NE QUAD 04:55:50 Z