Hurricane Ernesto - Cat. 1

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

i'm thinking relocation myself before this is over with

[benny]

I would leave this as a TD until ther eis evidence of SURFACE TS winds. Upgrading this absed upon marginal flight level winds would be something I'd rather strangle myself than do

I totally disagree with you here. We've already had 48 knots in recon... with a huge area above 45 kt. QuikScat showed wind vectors of 45-50 kt... which likely aren't too far off the mark. The storm's intensity is what it is.. even though satellite looks bad, aircraft says it is a storm, period.

[Derek Ortt]

oh I agree it was a TS earlier and BT will almost certainly reflect this

my question is should it be upgraded now when it is in a weakening trend on the idea that this trend is transient

[craptacular]

edit: TheEuropean has been doing it and I'll let him continue.

[TheEuropean]

342
SXXX50 KNHC 251804
AF303 0205A CYCLONE HDOB 14 KNHC
1756. 1244N 06739W 00305 5029 241 012 246 234 012 00287 0000000000
1757 1244N 06737W 00305 5029 246 010 246 230 011 00287 0000000000
1757. 1244N 06735W 00304 5029 242 010 248 224 010 00286 0000000000
1758 1244N 06732W 00306 5028 233 011 246 226 011 00288 0000000000
1758. 1244N 06730W 00305 5029 236 012 246 226 012 00286 0000000000
1759 1244N 06728W 00305 5029 232 013 244 230 013 00287 0000000000
1759. 1244N 06726W 00305 5029 235 013 246 222 013 00287 0000000000
1800 1244N 06724W 00305 5029 231 014 244 228 014 00286 0000000000
1800. 1244N 06722W 00305 5029 227 014 244 226 014 00286 0000000000
1801 1244N 06720W 00305 5029 227 013 240 232 013 00286 0000000000
1801. 1244N 06718W 00304 5029 226 013 240 232 013 00285 0000000000
1802 1244N 06716W 00305 5030 225 014 242 230 015 00285 0000000000
1802. 1244N 06713W 00305 5030 224 014 244 224 015 00285 0000000000
1803 1244N 06711W 00305 5031 226 013 246 224 014 00285 0000000000
1803. 1244N 06709W 00305 5031 222 014 250 208 015 00284 0000000000
1804 1244N 06707W 00305 5031 224 015 244 226 015 00285 0000000000
1804. 1244N 06705W 00305 5031 224 014 246 228 015 00285 0000000000
1805 1244N 06703W 00305 5031 218 014 244 232 015 00284 0000000000
1805. 1244N 06701W 00305 5030 212 015 240 234 015 00285 0000000000
1806 1244N 06659W 00305 5030 209 015 242 236 015 00286 0000000000

[Steve]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

Naked swirl has been ejected!

Steve

[Air Force Met]

i'm thinking relocation myself before this is over with

Its all going to depend on what they find under the convection. If they find winds from the SSE-SSW and just as strong (30-40 knot range)...don't hold your breath on that happening anytime soon. You'll have a better chance of the LLC surviving the shear and starting over than you will a new LLC forming...especially with a 1005mb pressure already with the LLC. The gradient winds will be WAY too strong for anything to work it's way down. Given the 40 knot winds are only 150 miles or so away...and blowing out of the area of the MLC...I am going to venture a guess and say the winds are going to be just as strong in that area.

Rule of Thumb: New LLC's do NOT form in strong pressure gradients within high wind fields. They like to form under heavy convection when the winds are light...usually under 10 knots.

[Noles2006]

Why couldn't they just call it Tropical Depression Ernesto and just say that during the day it acquired TS status, but has since weakened.... is it possible for the NHC to do that?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

That would do a thing to me. Just a little ash!

[Steve]

>>That would do a thing to me. Just a little ash!

Then maybe I'll just cheer for the Pacific Plate to move about 20 feet and crumble everything into ruins. You can't escape that.

Go Plate Techtonics.

Steve

[benny]

well.. better to be honest and say it was a storm but is suffering from shear and barely holding on as a storm. If this thing dissipates without a name... it is going to look bad to probably have an unnamed storm... eek

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Theres a difference between the earth quake in the hurricane. The earth quake your dead. No quastion. I'm just here to talk about weather so I don't really did or went this.

[TheEuropean]

715
SXXX50 KNHC 251814
AF303 0205A CYCLONE HDOB 15 KNHC
1806. 1244N 06657W 00304 5030 205 016 242 234 016 00285 0000000000
1807 1244N 06655W 00305 5030 203 015 240 238 016 00285 0000000000
1807. 1244N 06652W 00305 5030 206 015 240 240 015 00286 0000000000
1808 1244N 06650W 00304 5030 202 016 250 218 017 00285 0000000000
1808. 1244N 06648W 00305 5030 201 017 244 230 017 00286 0000000000
1809 1244N 06646W 00304 5030 199 019 244 226 020 00285 0000000000
1809. 1244N 06644W 00305 5030 196 020 246 220 020 00285 0000000000
1810 1244N 06642W 00305 5030 195 020 244 230 021 00285 0000000000
1810. 1244N 06640W 00306 5029 198 021 242 234 021 00287 0000000000
1811 1244N 06638W 00304 5030 198 022 244 228 023 00285 0000000000
1811. 1244N 06636W 00305 5029 194 023 246 224 023 00287 0000000000
1812 1244N 06634W 00305 5029 195 021 246 224 022 00287 0000000000
1812. 1244N 06632W 00305 5028 192 020 242 232 021 00287 0000000000
1813 1244N 06630W 00305 5029 189 020 240 234 021 00287 0000000000
1813. 1244N 06628W 00305 5029 186 022 240 238 022 00287 0000000000
1814 1245N 06626W 00305 5029 188 023 240 238 024 00286 0000000000
1814. 1245N 06624W 00305 5029 189 025 240 238 026 00287 0000000000
1815 1246N 06622W 00305 5029 185 025 240 238 026 00286 0000000000
1815. 1246N 06620W 00304 5029 183 026 240 240 026 00286 0000000000
1816 1247N 06618W 00295 5029 182 025 242 242 026 00277 0000000000

[Scott_inVA]

Curious. While this is underway, the gung-ho Canadian opens up a closed Low with two new vorts...but...not until 84H and after the TC crosses Cuba. That almost appears to be happening now.

Scott

[benny]

Why couldn't they just call it Tropical Depression Ernesto and just say that during the day it acquired TS status, but has since weakened.... is it possible for the NHC to do that?

That would be new to me!

[Andrew92]

Theres a difference between the earth quake in the hurricane. The earth quake your dead. No quastion. I'm just here to talk about weather so I don't really did or went this.

Matt, hurricanes kill too, no question. The storm in your avatar was the biggest killer hurricane for the U.S. in nearly 80 years.

I know you're excited about this developing, and admittedly, I sorta am too. But in reality, if this does develop (BIG if right now), I will be praying that people prepare for the storm, not for someone to get hit. Just like I don't pray for you to get hit by an earthquake or volcano.

Back to the topic.......innnnnnnnteresting debate I must say! Don't mind me, I'm just a spectator trying to learn here too. But what's going on is very fascinating to me.

-Andrew92

[TSmith274]

so I don't really did or went this.

Couldn't have said it better myself.

As for our little depression, people are writing this thing off too soon. Fluctuations in the surrounding environment and in intensity are par for the course. Not every hurricane has a clear path to hurricane status.

[senorpepr]

Theres a difference between the earth quake in the hurricane. The earth quake your dead. No quastion. I'm just here to talk about weather so I don't really did or went this.

What's wrong with Steve rooting for an earthquake or volcano? It's NO different that you hooting and hollering for a hurricane.

[craptacular]

Man o MAN I hope they get over near 13/66...or SE of there...

1815 1246N 06622W 00305 5029 185 025 240 238 026 00286 0000000000
1815. 1246N 06620W 00304 5029 183 026 240 240 026 00286 0000000000
1816 1247N 06618W 00295 5029 182 025 242 242 026 00277 0000000000

They're a little south of there, but fairly close. South winds at 26 knots.

[LeeJet]

Roland Stedham says it might come back as shear goes down.