Hurricane Florence - Cat. 1

#721 Postby **cycloneye** » Sun Sep 10, 2006 1:33 pm

SXXX50 KNHC 101834
AF303 0406A FLORENCE HDOB 23 KNHC
1821 3040N 06733W 03047 0062 058 031 104 078 031 03160 0000000000
1821. 3040N 06736W 03048 0063 057 029 102 084 030 03162 0000000000
1822 3040N 06738W 03048 0064 060 026 102 082 026 03162 0000000000
1822. 3040N 06740W 03052 0070 068 026 106 080 027 03172 0000000000
1823 3038N 06741W 03050 0071 068 025 100 092 027 03172 0000000000
1823. 3037N 06740W 03045 0063 072 021 104 078 021 03158 0000000000
1824 3036N 06738W 03048 0062 059 026 106 084 027 03160 0000000000
1824. 3035N 06737W 03049 0061 052 026 102 086 027 03160 0000000000
1825 3034N 06735W 03047 0059 053 027 104 076 028 03157 0000000000
1825. 3033N 06734W 03049 0058 047 027 102 076 028 03157 0000000000
1826 3031N 06732W 03048 0055 040 026 098 084 027 03154 0000000000
1826. 3030N 06731W 03048 0055 038 028 100 080 030 03153 0000000000
1827 3029N 06729W 03048 0053 040 032 094 084 034 03151 0000000000
1827. 3028N 06728W 03052 0052 040 035 096 094 036 03155 0000000000
1828 3026N 06726W 03043 0051 048 034 096 082 036 03145 0000000000
1828. 3025N 06725W 03050 0050 051 033 096 080 034 03150 0000000000
1829 3024N 06724W 03048 0048 048 029 096 082 031 03147 0000000000
1829. 3023N 06722W 03048 0046 041 032 092 088 034 03145 0000000000
1830 3021N 06721W 03048 0044 042 030 084 084 032 03143 0000000000
1830. 3020N 06719W 03048 0042 048 033 082 082 038 03141 0000000000

Thunder44 · #722 Postby **Thunder44** » Sun Sep 10, 2006 1:34 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:
Thunder44 wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:88kt from a dropsone it looks like. That supports 79kt at the surface.

I'm sure they will take another pass of the area.

What drosponde was this?

511
URNT11 KNHC 101747
97779 17454 10304 64600 30400 14054 10088 /3086 41340
RMK AF303 0406A FLORENCE OB 08

That's not a drosponde. And I don't believe that "88" is for windspeeds. The wind speed reported there is 54kts at flight level.

theworld · #723 Postby **theworld** » Sun Sep 10, 2006 1:35 pm

#724 Postby **wxman57** » Sun Sep 10, 2006 1:35 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:
Thunder44 wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:88kt from a dropsone it looks like. That supports 79kt at the surface.

I'm sure they will take another pass of the area.

What drosponde was this?

511
URNT11 KNHC 101747
97779 17454 10304 64600 30400 14054 10088 /3086 41340
RMK AF303 0406A FLORENCE OB 08

The lat/lon on that report 30.4N/64.6W. That's quite a ways northeast of the center. Surface winds reported as 130/40.

#725 Postby **brunota2003** » Sun Sep 10, 2006 1:36 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:
Thunder44 wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:88kt from a dropsone it looks like. That supports 79kt at the surface.

I'm sure they will take another pass of the area.

What drosponde was this?

511
URNT11 KNHC 101747
97779 17454 10304 64600 30400 14054 10088 /3086 41340
RMK AF303 0406A FLORENCE OB 08

that is an ob taken from the plane...it is at flight level and winds are 54 knots, not 88...

#726 Postby **cycloneye** » Sun Sep 10, 2006 1:36 pm

394
URNT11 KNHC 101831
97779 18214 10307 67608 30500 06025 10089 /3074
40550
RMK AF303 0406A FLORENCE OB 11

For those who may not know,This is not a dropsonde.

#727 Postby **CrazyC83** » Sun Sep 10, 2006 1:37 pm

Nimbus wrote:Convection is wrapping again hope the night doesn't bring another 20 mb pressure drop. With the last wobble towards the NE its hard to say which side of Bermuda She will pass on? Be great if she headed out to sea to the south of Bermuda.

Highly unlikely to go back to sea without hitting Bermuda now. Another 20mb drop would likely make Florence a Cat3, yet that is definitely possible.

Most of the time, the afternoons have seen Florence weaken some, only to strengthen in the night.

Thunder44 · #728 Postby **Thunder44** » Sun Sep 10, 2006 1:39 pm

#729 Postby **cycloneye** » Sun Sep 10, 2006 1:44 pm

SXXX50 KNHC 101844
AF303 0406A FLORENCE HDOB 24 KNHC
1831 3019N 06718W 03046 0039 052 034 090 090 037 03136 0000000000
1831. 3018N 06716W 03044 0036 050 037 088 088 038 03130 0000000000
1832 3017N 06715W 03051 0034 052 036 086 086 038 03136 0000000000
1832. 3015N 06713W 03050 0032 051 039 078 078 043 03132 0000000000
1833 3014N 06712W 03050 0030 049 041 078 078 041 03131 0000000000
1833. 3013N 06711W 03042 0026 050 044 086 086 046 03119 0000000000
1834 3012N 06709W 03051 0025 049 038 082 082 039 03127 0000000000
1834. 3011N 06708W 03048 0022 047 041 088 088 044 03121 0000000000
1835 3009N 06706W 03050 0020 050 045 086 086 046 03120 0000000000
1835. 3008N 06705W 03049 0016 049 045 076 076 049 03116 0000000000
1836 3007N 06704W 03045 0015 057 042 088 088 043 03111 0000000000
1836. 3006N 06702W 03047 0012 057 045 086 086 046 03110 0000000000
1837 3005N 06701W 03052 0010 051 049 086 086 051 03113 0000000000
1837. 3003N 06659W 03051 0007 045 043 084 084 047 03108 0000000000
1838 3002N 06658W 03041 0006 047 043 090 090 047 03098 0000000000
1838. 3001N 06657W 03049 0003 045 044 092 092 047 03102 0000000000
1839 3000N 06655W 03051 5000 044 043 092 092 043 03102 0000000000
1839. 2958N 06654W 03049 5003 040 045 090 090 046 03096 0000000000
1840 2957N 06652W 03045 5008 040 046 084 084 046 03088 0000000000
1840. 2956N 06651W 03048 5011 046 046 080 080 047 03088 0000000000

Normandy · #730 Postby **Normandy** » Sun Sep 10, 2006 1:47 pm

It looks too broad to rapidly intensify, it looks more like a large gale center

Stormavoider · #731 Postby **Stormavoider** » Sun Sep 10, 2006 1:48 pm

Looking at THIS It seems to be now moving east of due north.

Thunder44 · #732 Postby **Thunder44** » Sun Sep 10, 2006 1:48 pm

Thunder44 · #733 Postby **Thunder44** » Sun Sep 10, 2006 1:50 pm

871
UZNT13 KNHC 101743
XXAA 60177 99297 70654 07995 99991 26815 10550 00578 ///// /////
92609 21603 12076 85341 19011 14076 70988 10613 15090 88999 77999
31313 09608 81726
61616 AF303 0406A FLORENCE OB 07
62626 EYEWALL 045 SPL 2975N06551W 1730 MBL WND 11066 AEV 20604 DL
M WND 13073 991752 WL150 11056 081 =
XXBB 60178 99297 70654 07995 00991 26815 11900 20000 22850 19011
33816 17639 44696 10012
21212 00991 10550 11982 11055 22969 11072 33939 11571 44929 12077
55918 12074 66907 12081 77850 14076 88696 15091
31313 09608 81726
61616 AF303 0406A FLORENCE OB 07
62626 EYEWALL 045 SPL 2975N06551W 1730 MBL WND 11066 AEV 20604 DL
M WND 13073 991752 WL150 11056 081 =

Drosponde in eyewall, Pressure 991mb, surface wind 50kts, MBL Wind 66kts.

WindRunner · #734 Postby **WindRunner** » Sun Sep 10, 2006 1:52 pm

Quick RECCO explanation:

511
URNT11 KNHC 101747
97779 17454 10304 64600 30400 14054 10088 /3086 41340
RMK AF303 0406A FLORENCE OB 08

Red is FL conditions, with XXXyy where XXX is direction and yy is speed in knots.

Blue is an extra data section, with format AbbCC where A=4 means the section is indicating surface conditions, bb is tens of degrees for wind direction, and CC is wind speed in knots. This section is often on its own line, though not in this case.

#735 Postby **cycloneye** » Sun Sep 10, 2006 1:54 pm

SXXX50 KNHC 101854
AF303 0406A FLORENCE HDOB 25 KNHC
1841 2955N 06649W 03048 5017 046 048 076 076 049 03081 0000000000
1841. 2954N 06648W 03050 5021 046 050 072 072 051 03080 0000000000
1842 2952N 06647W 03046 5025 052 052 082 082 052 03071 0000000000
1842. 2951N 06645W 03050 5030 061 047 080 080 052 03070 0000000000
1843 2950N 06644W 03049 5033 055 047 082 082 048 03067 0000000000
1843. 2949N 06643W 03042 5034 038 044 086 086 045 03059 0000000000
1844 2948N 06641W 03046 5040 030 049 076 076 051 03057 0000000000
1844. 2946N 06640W 03056 5050 041 065 070 070 072 03057 0000000100
1845 2945N 06638W 03049 5060 047 068 076 076 070 03040 0000000100
1845. 2944N 06637W 03046 5067 061 063 086 086 063 03030 0000000100
1846 2943N 06636W 03046 5075 066 059 092 092 062 03022 0000000100
1846. 2942N 06634W 03053 5079 066 053 096 096 058 03024 0000000100
1847 2941N 06633W 03045 5083 058 039 106 106 042 03013 0000000000
1847. 2939N 06632W 03049 5085 042 030 120 120 031 03015 0000000000
1848 2938N 06630W 03047 5087 030 029 126 126 030 03011 0000000000
1848. 2936N 06629W 03045 5092 028 028 134 134 028 03004 0000000000
1849 2935N 06627W 03051 5096 024 025 140 140 025 03006 0000000000
1849. 2934N 06626W 03045 5101 019 023 144 144 023 02994 0000000000
1850 2933N 06624W 03049 5106 025 016 152 142 017 02994 0000000000
1850. 2932N 06622W 03047 5110 026 015 156 142 016 02988 0000000000

Thunder44 · #736 Postby **Thunder44** » Sun Sep 10, 2006 1:57 pm

#737 Postby **cycloneye** » Sun Sep 10, 2006 1:57 pm

Another VDM comming in minutes.

dwsqos2 · #738 Postby **dwsqos2** » Sun Sep 10, 2006 1:59 pm

473
UZNT13 KNHC 101851
XXAA 60197 99297 70666 07996 99986 24800 35567 00625 ///// /////
92559 21403 01070 85290 17800 02573 70939 10000 05565 88999 77999
31313 09608 81844
61616 AF303 0406A FLORENCE OB 13
62626 EYEWALL 315 SPL 2967N06666W 1848 MBL WND 36071 AEV 20604 DL
M WND 02566 986707 WL150 36071 075 =
XXBB 60198 99297 70666 07996 00986 24800 11850 17800 22720 12200
33704 11800 44696 08000
21212 00986 35567 11979 35572 22970 36073 33962 36069 44864 01072
55850 02573 66696 05563
31313 09608 81844
61616 AF303 0406A FLORENCE OB 13
62626 EYEWALL 315 SPL 2967N06666W 1848 MBL WND 36071 AEV 20604 DL
M WND 02566 986707 WL150 36071 075 =

986 mb; surface winds of 67 knots; MBL winds of 71 knots.

Thunder44 · #739 Postby **Thunder44** » Sun Sep 10, 2006 2:00 pm

Looks like they found a max of 72kts in the NW Quad. So they would also be winds reaching hurricane force on the western side too.

#740 Postby **CrazyC83** » Sun Sep 10, 2006 2:02 pm

Thunder44 wrote:Looks like they found a max of 72kts in the NW Quad. So they would also be winds reaching hurricane force on the western side too.

With the storm moving at about 12kt, that is to be expected with an 80-85kt storm. It matches up well with the 96kt on the NE Quad.

Hurricane Florence - Cat. 1

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