Hurricane FELIX: Caribbean-Discussions

[Aric Dunn]

from that report its a cat4 .. but will see if they upgrade it

[wxman57]

Thank You WXMAN57. Perfect

Just curious, how often do you get updated images? Say you wanted to make a 30 image loop, over how many minutes, hours, would it cover?

I'm having to use the northern hemisphere shots since Felix is so far south. These images are every 30 minutes (15 minutes after and 15 minutes before each hour). North of about 16N I can use the CONUS images which are every 15 minutes.

[KatDaddy]

Thanks for the close up shot of Felix. Very impressive hurricane.

I have not checked the threads in detail so this may have already been posted.

The latest from Jeff Master at WxUndergound:

Felix's threat to other locales
Felix will be devastating wherever is makes landfall, which currently appears to be the Yucatan Peninsula. There are no troughs of low pressure capable of altering Felix's steady course coming, until the storm emerges into the Gulf of Mexico after crossing the Yucatan. At that point, a trough of low pressure strong enough to bring Felix to the Texas coast may move through. It is too early to guess how strong this trough might be, and what the potential risk to Texas is.

[Aric Dunn]

AWESOME

MAX FL WIND 122 KT NE QUAD 17:21:10 Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 132 KT NE QUAD 18:57:10 Z
SFC CNTR WITHIN 5NM OF FL CNTR
STADIUM EFFECT
AL06 2007

[whereverwx]

Here's the latest image:

[Aric Dunn]

i wish people would use image shack for there pictures ... some of these others sites just dont work .. for me

[Derek Ortt]

there has been no nrotherly wobble based upon the recon fix... still nearly due west and only slightly north of the forecast track I released this morning

[sealbach]

it's got a hexagonal shape to the eye

[perk]

Thanks for the close up shot of Felix. Very impressive hurricane.

I have not checked the threads in detail so this may have already been posted.

The latest from Jeff Master at WxUndergound:

Felix's threat to other locales
Felix will be devastating wherever is makes landfall, which currently appears to be the Yucatan Peninsula. There are no troughs of low pressure capable of altering Felix's steady course coming, until the storm emerges into the Gulf of Mexico after crossing the Yucatan. At that point, a trough of low pressure strong enough to bring Felix to the Texas coast may move through. It is too early to guess how strong this trough might be, and what the potential risk to Texas is.

KatDaddy it was posted here several pages back.

[jaxfladude]

Man, what is with all this Cat 5 's(potentially) in the same season in the same decade?

[SoonerMaximus]

Calamity, one of the pro mets was asking earlier, and I would also like to know, where did you find that image? Great detail.

[ConvergenceZone]

:uarrow:
Man, what is with all this Cat 5 's(potentially) in the same season in the same decade?

I agree, and while it isn't certain this will reach cat 5 status, cat 5's used to be considered 'RARE', where as now, we are seeing the frequency of cat5s on a sharp increase...Even if the amount of storms isn't increasing, it seems the potency is....

[Vortex]

Could the ULL forming just OFF SE Florida have any impact on Felix?


http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes

[wxman57]

:uarrow:
Man, what is with all this Cat 5 's(potentially) in the same season in the same decade?

I agree, and while it isn't certain this will reach cat 5 status, cat 5's used to be considered 'RARE', where as now, we are seeing the frequency of cat5s on a sharp increase...Even if the amount of storms isn't increasing, it seems the potency is....

Check out the max potential intensity graphics. Cat 5s were probably not as rare as the database indicates, as the only way they were confirmed prior to the 1950s were if they moved directly over an observing station. Now we have multiple satellites and recon with quite sophisticated measuring equipment. We're better at detecting them.

http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html

[WindRunner]

Well, since so few people seem to be noticing, a dropsonde in Felix's eyewall measured 128kt surface winds . . . subtract 500 from the bolded section for winds >100kts . . .


UZNT13 KNHC 021918
XXAA 52197 99136 70713 04431 99972 23856 08628 00746 ///// /////
92435 21658 11151 85165 19076 13635 70820 104// 14628 88999 77999
31313 09608 81856
61616 AF305 0806A FELIX OB 14
62626 EYEWALL 000 SPL 1366N07141W 1900 AEV 00000 =
XXBB 52198 99136 70713 04431 00972 23856 11963 23494 22959 23462
33873 19666 44870 19456 55850 19076 66829 18461 77822 18602 88815
18600 99717 13201 11705 128// 22695 080//
21212 00972 08628 11954 10148 22932 10647 33916 11654 44909 11648
55902 12156 66894 12643 77873 12640 88864 13146 99857 13136 11850
13635 22825 13117 33814 13134 44789 13119 55757 14148 66695 15130
31313 09608 81856
61616 AF305 0806A FELIX OB 14
62626 EYEWALL 000 SPL 1366N07141W 1900 AEV 00000 =

[RL3AO]

Well, since so few people seem to be noticing, a dropsonde in Felix's eyewall measured 128kt surface winds . . . subtract 500 from the bolded section for winds >100kts . . .

Well. It is getting closer to that magic number of 140.

[ConvergenceZone]

:uarrow:
Man, what is with all this Cat 5 's(potentially) in the same season in the same decade?

I agree, and while it isn't certain this will reach cat 5 status, cat 5's used to be considered 'RARE', where as now, we are seeing the frequency of cat5s on a sharp increase...Even if the amount of storms isn't increasing, it seems the potency is....

Check out the max potential intensity graphics. Cat 5s were probably not as rare as the database indicates, as the only way they were confirmed prior to the 1950s were if they moved directly over an observing station. Now we have multiple satellites and recon with quite sophisticated measuring equipment. We're better at detecting them.

http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html

thanx wxman, I'll check it out...

[whereverwx]

The ever-changing position of the sun is making the eye seem a bit more dramatic.

[CrazyC83]

Looks like Felix the Cat is really mad today...

[HouTXmetro]

unless Felix jogs west he is going North of the next forecated position point.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html