Invest 99L:Off E Coast-Discussions

[cpdaman]

what is the feature dropping southward to the west of our system

upper trough? is this is what is supposed to cut off

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html

what effect will it have on shear short term

[windstorm99]

Jeff Masters 9/5/07....

Carolinas at risk from tropical disturbance 99L
An area of disturbed weather (99L) that formed along an old frontal boundary appears to have developed into a subtropical depression, and may grow into a tropical storm over the next day or two. Strong upper level winds from the west are creating about 15 knots of wind shear over 99L, and satellite loops of 99L show the classic appearance of a weak, sheared system--a nearly exposed low level circulation system, with all the heavy thunderstorm activity pushed to one side by strong upper-level winds. This shear is forecast to remain between 15 and 25 knots over the next two days, which should allow some slow development. A QuikSCAT pass from 6:52am EDT showed that 99L has a vigorous closed circulation with top winds of 25-30 knots (30-35 mph), so in my book this system is already a subtropical depression. The reason I call it subtropical is because there is still clear evidence of a frontal boundary attached to 99L, evident as long band of clouds extending from the south side of the storm (Figure 2). The Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate this system at 2pm EDT, and NHC may wait until then to see if 99L can maintain its strength before naming it a subtropical depression.

The computer models are all unanimous in developing 99L into a tropical storm. The preferred tracks are into North Carolina or South Carolina by Sunday or Monday. The HWRF, SHIPS, and GFDL intensity models are calling for a weak tropical storm, strong tropical storm, and Category 2 hurricane, respectively, when 99L makes landfall Monday in the Carolinas. Residents of the east coast of the U.S., and the Carolinas in particular, should carefully watch the development of 99L.

[LarryWx]

The visible photos show that it is still moving with a mostly eastward component (looks like ENE to me). How far east will it go? The more east it goes, the less threat to the SE below NC regardless of whether or not the ridge is underdone in the model consensus imho simply because it would have to travel that much further west to even reach SC/GA/FL. Keep in mind that it was already near 71.5 W at 12Z.

[Frank2]

I agree, Larrywx - it's just common sense that the future east it moves, the less the chance that it will move westward far enough to reach land...

I'd say that the invest for today will be cancelled, since it's just a fully-exposed center at this time...

['CaneFreak]

Frank, if they were going to cancel the recon for today, dont you think they would have done it by now?

[cpdaman]

what is the feature dropping southward to the west of our system

upper trough? is this is what is supposed to cut off

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html

what effect will it have on shear short term

ok the last few visible frames start to show more convection to the north of the system possibly trying to wrap around

i was wondering above if the feature dropping down was making it more codusive to any kind of lessening or changing of shear

[windstorm99]

This thing continues to drift to the east....It may not comeback all the way to the coast if this continues.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I agree, Larrywx - it's just common sense that the future east it moves, the less the chance that it will move westward far enough to reach land...

I'd say that the invest for today will be cancelled, since it's just a fully-exposed center at this time...

but it looks like a tropical storm to me with the heavy convection near
the center and if shear relaxes this thing can explode...i think
we get ts gabrielle at 5...but im just amateur so my predictions
may be wrong...

[Chacor]

Frank, if they were going to cancel the recon for today, dont you think they would have done it by now?

They might have already done it. There will be no way to know until the TCPOD or TWOAT comes out.

['CaneFreak]

This thing continues to drift to the east....It may not comeback all the way to the coast if this continues.

This is all true, but again it depends on the strength of the ridge.

[Derek Ortt]

why are some saying this is not impressive

This remains a shoe-in hurricane

[Derek Ortt]

some of the models had this getting east of 70, then coming back

Not only is this a shoe-in cane, it is close to a shoe-in EC threat somewhere bewteen the Carolinas and Cape Cod

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

why are some saying this is not impressive

This remains a shoe-in hurricane

100% Agree Derek. I think this will be a cat 3 by saturday.
Carolinas better be checking their hurricane kits, and it's
not to early to speculate on possible evacuations there.

[windstorm99]

why are some saying this is not impressive

This remains a shoe-in hurricane

Derek with this thing continueing to drift off to the east you really see this coming back all the way to the coast?Thats going to have to be one mighty strong ridge.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

why are some saying this is not impressive

This remains a shoe-in hurricane

Derek with thing continueing to drift of to the east you really see this coming back all the way to the coast?Thats going to have to be one mighty strong ridge.

It will be mighty strong I am thinking...the ridges became
really strong stronger than models with dean and felix.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

why are some saying this is not impressive

This remains a shoe-in hurricane

I been wondering that for the last 3 hours. This thing looks super impressive for a system under 20 knots of shear. The LLC is strong, in once the shear slows down it should strengthen.

[MBismyPlayground]

Derrek,
This is what I have been waiting for, your 2 cents on this thing....Now I guess I will have to watch.....Seems I am right between all the prediction points. By the way, our local newspaper really LOVES you....they quote you all the time!

[Stormcenter]

I'm not sold on this becoming anything significant until it actually does.
It does not look impressive at all "right now".

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-avn.html

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


Gulf stream waters are very warm.
TWO mentions that conditions will become
more favorable. So here goes:
24 hours- 60 mph Tropical Storm
48 hours- 85 mph Hurricane
72 hours- 110 mph Hurricane
This weekend: Landfall within 100 nM of carolinas
as a 120 mph Category 3 Major Hurricane.
Cannot rule out GA/SC with models underestimating
ridge.

[Derek Ortt]

yes...

the trough is already passing this system by to the north now

The trough to watch is the one over Nova Scotia