TD INGRID: Discussions & Images - Last Advisory

[HURAKAN]

LATEST:

[windstorm99]

[wzrgirl1]

td by 5 p.m. tomorrow is my guess.....looking good now

[CrazyC83]

Can't tell anything from QuikSCAT as it misses the system.

[SapphireSea]

I expected it to take good shape during tonight D-MAX. Looks like It will get to depression status soon if not already. However it's circulation structure only improved marginally since this morning, so it may lose alot of convection at tommorow's D-MIN before finnaly jumping to TS status. There are still one hindering factor, but because it's less of an issue. I say development outlook is about 80%, but not absolute yet (it could always open back up into a wave, and become a transient feature). The track will probobly be on the S.ern end of the solutions for now. Mean movement is about 275-280 degrees.


Speculated Motion - The following product is NOT issued or endorsed by any official or professional organization, and may or may not be backed by sound data.

It should continue to move generaly W to WNW (see above mean motion) for the next day or so, followed by a turn to about 290-300 degrees in motion which will persist for 48 to 52 hours. A general bend back to 280-285 is likely through 76 hours. After such, there is too much uncertainty on the track it will take next, this all depends on the ridging or troughing synoptic patterns on the W. Atl and the strength of our storm to some extent. I expect it to be at about 18.5n and 58.3W, give or take a 600 mile error. (huge I understand, I actually hope to be correct within 150 miles).

End of Speculation

Too early to take my above predictions with ANY serious consideration. The above is just a good try on my part this early in the game.

[jdjaguar]

Loop: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_1

Looks really good. There's is no question this system is will be a named storm in the next 48-72 hrs if it continues this trend.

Or sooner?

As previously stated... TD by 11 PM..though officially probably not until 11 AM.

Now, being an east coast Floridian...i'm not liking these early tracks one bit.

[CrazyC83]

td by 5 p.m. tomorrow is my guess.....looking good now

If it isn't already a TD...

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

If current trends keep going even the nhc "will" upgade this by 11am once the sun comes up. As it moves more westward into the central Atlantic, it should only get more favorable for development of this system with warmer sst's and less SAL.

[CrazyC83]

If current trends keep going even the nhc "will" upgade this by 11am once the sun comes up. As it moves more westward into the central Atlantic, it should only get more favorable for development of this system with warmer sst's and less SAL.

Looking at the satellite, it is possible that it is TD8 right now. However, QuikSCAT missed so there is no way of knowing if there is a closed circulation.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

If current trends keep going even the nhc "will" upgade this by 11am once the sun comes up. As it moves more westward into the central Atlantic, it should only get more favorable for development of this system with warmer sst's and less SAL.

Looking at the satellite, it is possible that it is TD8 right now. However, QuikSCAT missed so there is no way of knowing if there is a closed circulation.

I agree...My personal option is it is closed. And slowly becoming better organized at the lower levels. But the upper levels and the fact that this is moving into a more favorable shear enviroment over the next 6-12 hours, I would say this could strengthen at a good rate once it gets a hold of its self. Other wise I expect enough ridging to the north to allow this to go west or west-northwest. It is not a hundred percent because of the fact it could stair step. As it becomes more organized that will lessen the chances of it.

[Weatherfreak000]

As i've said the whole time, this is just about as good for E.Atl Development as you can get.

[jaxfladude]

LATEST:

I say it has the "TD look" NHC will wait until 11am WED at the earliest but that looks better than some of the TS and STS this season alone have ever looked at their best...different systems and conditions yes, but
Next QuikSCAT(if it gets the invest next time around) should help the NHC to declare or not declare this TD#8 within the next 48 hours(12-24 IMHO)...

[windstorm99]

[HURAKAN]

LATEST:

[Brent]

Likely TD tomorrow IMO. Probably 11am if this trend persists.

Could be one now.

[canegrl04]

Judging from the latest images,this is TD right NOW

[Nimbus]

Derek wrote:

Had to look very hard, but am able to see inflow being focused near 12N and 43W. Could have a new center start to form there. System is moving nearly due west, south of the guidance projections

As new data comes you have to adjust the models. A degree further south this far out can change everything. If a center is developing under that convection I'm going to be sick.

[terrapintransit]

Take a look at this next wave about to exit....

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/EATL/IR4/20.jpg

[jhamps10]

this looks like a TD to me, if not a weak TS RIGHT NOW!

But I too think we will see NHC wait till morning to get visable shots to upgrade it to TD 8.

[chrisnnavarre]

Derek wrote:

Had to look very hard, but am able to see inflow being focused near 12N and 43W. Could have a new center start to form there. System is moving nearly due west, south of the guidance projections

As new data comes you have to adjust the models. A degree further south this far out can change everything. If a center is developing under that convection I'm going to be sick.

I'll get even sicker if this passes south of PR and turns into the GOM. I just have a feeling this is the one where somebody's luck has run out. I just don't see this one going to Central America.