Ex Tropical Depression KAREN: Discussions & Images

[cycloneye]

000
URNT15 KWBC 261934
NOAA3 0112A KAREN HDOB 02 20070926
192500 1304N 05856W 6806 03402 0102 +090 +023 052015 016 018 000 00
192530 1304N 05854W 6696 03537 0103 +081 +024 055014 014 016 000 00
192600 1304N 05852W 6603 03652 0104 +074 +003 055013 013 019 000 00
192630 1304N 05850W 6489 03796 0105 +065 +003 053013 014 021 000 00
192700 1303N 05848W 6404 03903 0103 +061 -020 047012 013 025 000 00
192730 1303N 05846W 6339 03987 0104 +054 -016 048011 012 028 002 00
192800 1303N 05844W 6268 04081 0102 +047 +004 053010 011 021 001 00
192830 1303N 05842W 6168 04211 0100 +044 -068 057011 012 013 000 00
192900 1303N 05840W 6075 04336 0105 +036 -117 055011 011 019 000 00
192930 1303N 05838W 5991 04449 0104 +029 -106 055011 011 018 000 00
193000 1303N 05836W 5924 04538 0104 +021 -095 058010 011 016 000 00
193030 1303N 05834W 5839 04655 0105 +014 -091 064010 011 022 001 00
193100 1303N 05832W 5757 04766 0108 +005 -082 072012 012 021 000 00
193130 1303N 05830W 5708 04839 0114 +000 -095 071012 013 019 000 00
193200 1303N 05828W 5706 04844 0115 +000 -135 073014 015 019 000 00
193230 1303N 05825W 5707 04842 0115 +000 -126 071014 015 017 000 00
193300 1303N 05823W 5706 04841 0112 +002 -146 072015 015 020 000 00
193330 1303N 05821W 5706 04843 0110 +003 -146 074014 015 019 000 00
193400 1303N 05819W 5707 04841 0110 +002 -141 070014 014 018 000 00
193430 1303N 05816W 5707 04841 0106 +004 -117 071015 015 019 000 00

Plane is in the air.Who wants to post the obs.

[cycloneye]

Ok folks,the plane has left Barbados.It will reach Karen around 7:30 PM EDT.Lets discuss here about the data this and future missions towards Karen will bring.

[cycloneye]

000
URNT15 KWBC 261944
NOAA3 0112A KAREN HDOB 03 20070926
193500 1303N 05814W 5708 04839 0102 +005 -130 071014 014 019 001 00
193530 1303N 05812W 5707 04840 0104 +004 -123 070015 015 019 000 00
193600 1303N 05810W 5707 04839 0105 +002 -107 071014 015 019 000 00
193630 1303N 05807W 5708 04837 0105 +005 -176 072015 015 018 000 00
193700 1303N 05805W 5707 04838 0109 +004 -203 069015 016 017 000 00
193730 1303N 05803W 5708 04839 0109 +004 -199 068016 016 018 000 00
193800 1303N 05800W 5707 04840 0108 +005 -197 067016 017 019 000 00
193830 1303N 05758W 5708 04839 0107 +005 -192 063016 017 019 000 00
193900 1303N 05756W 5709 04837 0105 +005 -196 063016 016 018 000 00
193930 1303N 05753W 5709 04837 0106 +005 -202 064016 016 019 000 00
194000 1303N 05751W 5709 04835 0105 +005 -205 066016 016 018 000 00
194030 1303N 05749W 5709 04835 0105 +006 -210 066016 016 017 000 00
194100 1303N 05746W 5709 04835 0103 +006 -210 067016 016 017 000 00
194130 1303N 05744W 5709 04837 0103 +006 -213 069016 016 017 000 00
194200 1303N 05742W 5709 04835 0103 +006 -242 072016 016 016 000 00
194230 1303N 05740W 5710 04833 0102 +006 -232 074016 016 014 000 00
194300 1303N 05737W 5709 04833 0103 +006 -254 076016 016 014 000 00
194330 1303N 05735W 5709 04832 0100 +007 -240 070016 016 014 000 00
194400 1303N 05733W 5710 04830 0098 +007 -227 068015 015 014 000 00
194430 1303N 05730W 5710 04830 0098 +007 -216 069016 016 017 000 00

Well,I will continue posting them for a while.

[cycloneye]

Anyone wants to post the google track?

[punkyg]

I would do it, but i don't know how too.

[punkyg]

cycloneye i would this, but i don't where to find it.

[cycloneye]

000
URNT15 KWBC 261954
NOAA3 0112A KAREN HDOB 04 20070926
194500 1302N 05728W 5709 04832 0098 +007 -203 069016 016 018 000 00
194530 1302N 05726W 5710 04832 0096 +007 -188 067016 016 019 000 00
194600 1302N 05723W 5710 04830 0095 +008 -177 067016 017 017 000 00
194630 1302N 05721W 5709 04832 0095 +007 -172 069017 018 016 000 00
194700 1302N 05719W 5709 04829 0094 +007 -179 070018 018 016 000 00
194730 1302N 05717W 5709 04829 0093 +008 -176 069019 019 016 000 00
194800 1302N 05714W 5710 04829 0094 +008 -221 071019 020 016 000 00
194830 1302N 05712W 5710 04829 0092 +008 -179 069020 020 016 000 00
194900 1302N 05710W 5710 04829 0096 +007 -231 073021 021 015 000 00
194930 1302N 05707W 5711 04827 0097 +006 -226 072021 021 017 000 00
195000 1302N 05705W 5711 04826 0098 +004 -155 072021 021 017 000 00
195030 1302N 05703W 5711 04826 0103 +003 -227 075020 021 015 000 00
195100 1302N 05701W 5712 04826 0105 +003 -239 074020 020 015 000 00
195130 1302N 05658W 5712 04826 0105 +002 -215 074019 020 015 000 00
195200 1302N 05656W 5711 04826 0106 +001 -200 074020 020 015 000 00
195230 1302N 05654W 5712 04826 0105 +002 -198 072019 019 017 000 00
195300 1302N 05652W 5712 04827 0107 +002 -215 073019 019 017 000 00
195330 1302N 05649W 5713 04826 0106 +002 -222 073019 019 016 000 00
195400 1302N 05647W 5712 04827 0106 +002 -228 072020 020 015 000 00
195430 1302N 05645W 5712 04826 0105 +002 -209 073020 020 015 000 00

[skysummit]

Anyone wants to post the google track?

I can't continually post it, but here it is:

Karen Recon Google Track

[cycloneye]

I would do it, but i don't know how too.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/URNT15-NOAA.shtml?

[punkyg]

It will update every couple of minutes?

[cycloneye]

It will update every couple of minutes?

Every 10.

[HenkL]

URNT15 KWBC 262004
NOAA3 0112A KAREN HDOB 05 20070926
195500 1301N 05643W 5712 04826 0105 +002 -214 073020 020 017 000 00
195530 1301N 05641W 5712 04824 0106 +001 -215 073020 020 017 000 00
195600 1301N 05638W 5713 04824 0109 +001 -258 073020 020 017 000 00
195630 1301N 05636W 5713 04823 0108 +001 -259 072020 020 016 000 00
195700 1301N 05634W 5713 04823 0107 +002 -251 072020 020 016 000 00
195730 1301N 05632W 5712 04824 0106 +002 -245 072020 020 017 000 00
195800 1301N 05630W 5713 04823 0107 +001 -274 072020 020 015 000 00
195830 1301N 05627W 5712 04824 0105 +002 -287 071019 019 014 000 00
195900 1301N 05625W 5713 04823 0102 +004 -282 069019 019 014 000 00
195930 1301N 05623W 5713 04823 0100 +005 -291 069019 019 014 000 00
200000 1301N 05621W 5713 04823 0100 +005 -297 069019 019 013 000 00
200030 1301N 05619W 5712 04824 0100 +005 -300 069019 019 011 000 00
200100 1301N 05616W 5712 04823 0097 +006 -304 068018 018 010 000 00
200130 1301N 05614W 5712 04824 0097 +006 -314 067018 018 010 000 00
200200 1301N 05612W 5712 04823 0095 +008 -324 064017 018 010 000 00
200230 1301N 05610W 5713 04823 0094 +009 -331 064017 017 010 000 00
200300 1301N 05607W 5712 04824 0096 +008 -336 066017 017 009 000 00
200330 1301N 05605W 5712 04826 0099 +007 -341 068017 017 011 000 00
200400 1301N 05603W 5711 04827 0100 +006 -344 066017 017 010 000 00
200430 1300N 05601W 5711 04827 0104 +004 -346 066017 017 010 000 00

[punkyg]

It will update every couple of minutes?

Every 10.

Ok i'll take over you just tell me when your ready for me too.

[cycloneye]

I think I am done posting them. Another member is going to continue.

[HenkL]

You can take over, punkyg.

[punkyg]

000
URNT15 KWBC 262014
NOAA3 0112A KAREN HDOB 06 20070926
200500 1300N 05558W 5711 04827 0105 +004 -347 068017 017 009 000 00
200530 1300N 05556W 5711 04827 0106 +003 -348 069017 017 013 000 00
200600 1300N 05554W 5690 04857 0106 +002 -349 070016 017 013 000 00
200630 1300N 05551W 5636 04934 0101 -001 -350 070015 016 012 000 00
200700 1300N 05549W 5584 05009 0098 -004 -350 066014 014 009 000 00
200730 1300N 05547W 5537 05076 0091 -005 -350 066014 014 010 000 00
200800 1300N 05545W 5494 05140 0266 -008 -347 064014 014 009 000 00
200830 1300N 05543W 5437 05221 0270 -014 -343 063013 013 010 000 00
200900 1300N 05541W 5398 05278 0274 -019 -337 062013 013 011 000 00
200930 1300N 05539W 5364 05329 0276 -022 -328 063012 013 011 000 00
201000 1300N 05537W 5343 05360 0278 -022 -317 069013 013 011 000 00
201030 1300N 05534W 5321 05393 0279 -024 -301 070012 013 010 000 00
201100 1300N 05532W 5300 05422 0280 -026 -288 067012 012 009 000 00
201130 1300N 05530W 5276 05457 0283 -028 -274 066010 011 012 000 00
201200 1300N 05528W 5252 05494 0285 -030 -258 063009 009 010 000 00
201230 1300N 05526W 5232 05525 0287 -033 -188 063009 009 011 000 00
201300 1300N 05524W 5212 05555 0288 -035 -154 063007 008 012 000 00
201330 1259N 05522W 5190 05588 0291 -038 -134 065006 007 012 000 00
201400 1259N 05519W 5173 05616 0292 -041 -111 058005 005 011 000 00
201430 1259N 05517W 5157 05641 0294 -044 -101 058005 005 010 000 00

[punkyg]

000
URNT15 KWBC 262024
NOAA3 0112A KAREN HDOB 07 20070926
201500 1259N 05515W 5151 05646 0293 -044 -099 054004 004 011 000 00
201530 1259N 05513W 5151 05647 0292 -044 -096 055004 005 008 000 00
201600 1259N 05511W 5151 05646 0292 -044 -090 050004 004 006 000 00
201630 1259N 05508W 5150 05647 0292 -044 -080 043004 004 011 000 00
201700 1259N 05506W 5150 05647 0292 -043 -069 034004 004 010 000 00
201730 1259N 05504W 5151 05646 0292 -043 -060 033005 005 010 000 00
201800 1259N 05501W 5150 05649 0292 -043 -055 044006 007 011 000 00
201830 1259N 05459W 5150 05647 0292 -042 -051 054007 008 010 000 00
201900 1259N 05456W 5150 05647 0292 -041 -047 055007 008 010 000 00
201930 1259N 05454W 5151 05646 0291 -041 -048 050006 007 010 000 00
202000 1259N 05451W 5150 05649 0292 -041 -052 058007 008 008 000 00
202030 1259N 05449W 5151 05646 0291 -040 -053 060007 008 009 000 00
202100 1259N 05447W 5150 05646 0291 -039 -054 055008 008 008 000 00
202130 1259N 05444W 5150 05646 0291 -039 -056 055009 010 008 000 00
202200 1258N 05442W 5151 05646 0291 -039 -054 054010 010 008 000 00
202230 1258N 05439W 5151 05647 0292 -039 -053 053010 010 009 000 00
202300 1258N 05437W 5152 05646 0293 -038 -053 054010 010 010 000 00
202330 1258N 05434W 5150 05649 0293 -038 -056 056010 010 014 000 00
202400 1258N 05432W 5152 05647 0294 -038 -063 062008 009 014 000 00
202430 1258N 05430W 5151 05649 0294 -038 -070 061009 010 008 000 00

[punkyg]

000
URNT15 KWBC 262034
NOAA3 0112A KAREN HDOB 08 20070926
202500 1258N 05427W 5152 05647 0294 -038 -069 058008 008 009 000 00
202530 1258N 05425W 5152 05647 0294 -038 -071 058008 008 016 000 00
202600 1258N 05422W 5152 05646 0293 -038 -077 058008 008 012 000 00
202630 1258N 05420W 5151 05649 0293 -038 -083 059008 008 012 000 00
202700 1258N 05418W 5151 05648 0294 -038 -087 058008 008 015 000 00
202730 1258N 05415W 5152 05647 0294 -038 -087 058007 007 015 000 00
202800 1257N 05413W 5152 05647 0294 -038 -089 056007 008 012 000 00
202830 1257N 05410W 5152 05645 0293 -038 -093 057007 008 014 000 00
202900 1257N 05408W 5153 05644 0292 -036 -099 061007 008 014 000 00
202930 1257N 05405W 5152 05645 0292 -036 -100 058008 008 011 000 00
203000 1257N 05403W 5151 05646 0292 -038 -100 055007 008 009 000 00
203030 1257N 05401W 5152 05645 0292 -039 -096 050007 007 008 000 00
203100 1257N 05358W 5152 05645 0292 -039 -096 053007 007 008 000 00
203130 1257N 05356W 5152 05644 0291 -038 -099 057008 008 010 000 00
203200 1257N 05353W 5151 05645 0292 -040 -104 069008 009 007 000 00
203230 1257N 05351W 5152 05644 0291 -039 -105 064008 008 008 000 00
203300 1257N 05348W 5152 05646 0292 -039 -102 063008 008 007 000 00
203330 1257N 05346W 5152 05645 0292 -039 -097 058008 008 005 000 00
203400 1257N 05344W 5151 05646 0292 -040 -091 059007 007 007 000 00
203430 1256N 05341W 5152 05645 0292 -040 -087 058007 008 006 000 00

[Cyclone1]

Advisory 8 is out. Still a TS at 5:00.

[Brent]

TROPICAL STORM KAREN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122007
2100 UTC WED SEP 26 2007

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 43.6W AT 26/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 45NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 75NE 45SE 30SW 45NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 60SE 30SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 43.6W AT 26/2100Z
AT 26/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 43.1W

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 13.2N 45.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 45SE 0SW 45NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 14.6N 47.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 60NE 45SE 0SW 45NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 15.9N 48.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 45NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 45SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 17.0N 50.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 45NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 45SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 19.0N 52.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 45NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 45SW 75NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 21.0N 55.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 23.0N 57.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.4N 43.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/PASCH




628
WTNT32 KNHC 262048
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KAREN ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122007
500 PM AST WED SEP 26 2007

...KAREN REMAINS BELOW HURRICANE INTENSITY OVER THE CENTRAL NORTH
ATLANTIC...

AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 43.6 WEST OR ABOUT 1175
MILES...1890 KM...EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.

KAREN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS THOUGH A SMALL INCREASE WOULD BRING KAREN TO HURRICANE
INTENSITY. A NOAA HURRICANE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL BE
INVESTIGATING THE TROPICAL STORM LATER THIS EVENING.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...12.4 N...43.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/PASCH

TROPICAL STORM KAREN DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122007
500 PM EDT WED SEP 26 2007

KAREN'S INTENSIFICATION...AT LEAST FOR THE TIME BEING...HAS
HALTED. THE INTERMITTENT EYE IS NO LONGER PRESENT AND DEEP
CONVECTION IS MAINLY OCCURRING IN THE NORTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE.
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES REMAIN AT 4.0 AND 3.5 FROM TAFB AND
SAB...THOUGH THE ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST AN
INTENSITY A BIT LOWER AT 50-55 KT. AN 1835Z AMSU CIMSS ESTIMATE
ALSO GIVES A WIND OF 57 KT FOR KAREN. INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT
60 KT... THOUGH THIS MAY BE SOMEWHAT GENEROUS.

KAREN IS MOVING AT 295/10 UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
RIDGE TO ITS NORTH. A TROUGH IN THE UPPER TROPOSPHERE LOCATED WEST
OF KAREN IS PREDICTED TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD AND INDUCE ENOUGH OF A
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE TO TURN KAREN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN
DAYS 3 AND 5. THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST
IN THE 12Z RUNS. THE TRACK FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THAT
GUIDANCE EXCEPT TO PUT LESS WEIGHT ON THE GFS EARLY ON...DUE TO ITS
TOO RAPID INITIAL MOTION...AND THE NOGAPS AT DAYS 4 AND 5...DUE TO
ITS UNREALISTICALLY LARGE VORTEX AND NORTHWARD MOTION.

AS IN MANY CASES...THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS NOT CLEAR CUT. KAREN
REMAINS OVER WARM 28C WATER AND HAS ABUNDANT MOISTURE NEARBY BUT IS
BEING IMPACTED BY MODERATE 15-20 KT WESTERLY SHEAR. THE SHEAR
SHOULD CONTINUE AND PERHAPS BE ENHANCED DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
THE SHIPS AND LGM STATISTICAL GUIDANCE SUGGEST MODEST
INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT DAY...BUT THIS MAY BE OVERLY
INFLUENCED BY THEIR PERSISTENCE PREDICTOR. THE GFDL AND HWRF
DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE ARE LESS IMPRESSED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
INTENSIFICATION. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST BRINGS KAREN TO A
HURRICANE...BUT JUST BARELY...IN A DAY BEFORE A GRADUAL WEAKENING
THEREAFTER. HOWEVER...IF THE SHEAR CONTINUES TO ADVERSELY IMPACT
KAREN'S ABILITY TO MAINTAIN SYMMETRIC CONVECTION...THEN THE CYCLONE
MAY BE SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKER THAN PREDICTED HERE.

THE 12 FOOT SEAS RADII WERE ADJUSTED OUTWARD BASED UPON OBSERVATIONS
FROM NOAA BUOY 41041.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 26/2100Z 12.4N 43.6W 60 KT
12HR VT 27/0600Z 13.2N 45.1W 60 KT
24HR VT 27/1800Z 14.6N 47.2W 65 KT
36HR VT 28/0600Z 15.9N 48.8W 65 KT
48HR VT 28/1800Z 17.0N 50.1W 60 KT
72HR VT 29/1800Z 19.0N 52.5W 55 KT
96HR VT 30/1800Z 21.0N 55.0W 55 KT
120HR VT 01/1800Z 23.0N 57.0W 55 KT

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/PASCH