Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[southerngale]

No 50s here, as forecast. Mid-40s for a high, so far. Yesterday, the high was supposed to be in the 40s, and I didn't get out of the 30s. Chilly, indeed.

So... have our snow chances in the next few weeks increased or decreased with today's model runs?

[Portastorm]

No 50s here, as forecast. Mid-40s for a high, so far. Yesterday, the high was supposed to be in the 40s, and I didn't get out of the 30s. Chilly, indeed.

So... have our snow chances in the next few weeks increased or decreased with today's model runs?

Let's put it this way ... our chances are better if the Europeans are right and the Americans are wrong.

[txagwxman]

ECMWF showing 2 more snow potentials for TX (next Fri) and day 10...still a long ways out. Keep fingers cross, because we are getting late in the year.

[Ntxw]

This is what FW has to say, if it happens I hope it's enough to break the record.

THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL FAVOR THE ECMWF/CANADIAN/UKMET AS THE
GFS APPEARS MUCH TOO SLOW/WEAK WITH A LATE WEEK COLD FRONT. UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN WILL FEATURE INTENSIFYING RIDGING ALONG THE WEST
COAST OF CANADA AND THE US...WITH A MEANDERING POLAR VORTEX ACROSS
FAR NORTH CANADA. STRONG NORTH TO SOUTH FLOW WILL DEVELOP BY LATE
WEEK BETWEEN THE TWO CIRCULATIONS...AND CANADIAN AIR WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE SOUTH AND POOL UNDERNEATH AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE PLAINS
AND MIDWEST. EXPECT A PERIOD OF COLDER THAN NORMAL WEATHER FRIDAY
INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH PERHAPS A POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY WEATHER
FRIDAY AND AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL KEEP PRECIP TYPE ALL RAIN
SINCE IT IS SEVERAL DAYS AWAY AND THE GFS IS NOT ON BOARD.

[iorange55]

BRING IT ON!


I want more, and more, and more. Might as well shatter the record.

[Portastorm]

ECMWF showing 2 more snow potentials for TX (next Fri) and day 10...still a long ways out. Keep fingers cross, because we are getting late in the year.

Yeah, been discussing this point on the local forum ... days getting longer, sun angle stronger ... but we continue to see major signals that an Arctic outbreak may be poised for next weekend. With cross-polar flow that could be enough to override the aforementioned length of days-sun factor.

At least from a week out, either the GFS or Euro is going to very wrong about next weekend given the differences between the two solutions.

[utweather]

Last chance for meaningful snow over central, south, and southeast Tx appears to be 10 day window from now if I read into what the Dodge City NWS is discussing correctly. Hopefully its a repeat of last week but with colder air

FXUS63 KDDC 132141
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
341 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2010

.DISCUSSION...

DAYS 3-7...

CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING EVOLUTION OF SYNOPTIC
SCALE SYSTEMS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, AND CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST
DETAILS IS LOW. A LARGE AREA OF ANOMALOUSLY ACTIVE TROPICAL
THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN ANCHORED OVER THE VERY WARM OCEAN
TEMPERATURES IN THE TROPICAL WESTERN PACIFIC BETWEEN 150W AND THE
DATELINE. ENERGY PROPAGATION FROM THIS CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS
LIKELY HAS MAINTAINED A VERY STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET. SATELLITE
IMAGERY SUGGESTS TROPICAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD
IN THE INDIAN OCEAN SOUTH OF INDIA IN RECENT DAYS. THE REMNANTS OF
A MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION APPEAR TO BE PROPAGATING RAPIDLY
EASTWARD THROUGH THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE, AND THE WHEELER-HENDON
PHASE SPACE PLOT SUGGESTS THE PRESENCE OF A COHERENT FEATURE MOVING
INTO PHASE 8/1. AS THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE EASTWARD,
INCREASING THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY IN THE INDIAN OCEAN THROUGH LATE
FEBRUARY. THIS PATTERN IS SUPPORTIVE OF RIDGING IN WESTERN CANADA
AND TROUGHING IN THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. ATMOSPHERIC ANGULAR
MOMENTUM STILL IS FAR ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY, BUT THE TREND IS SHARPLY
DOWNWARD. AS ATMOSPHERIC ANGULAR MOMENTUM DECREASES QUICKLY IN THE
NEXT WEEK OR SO, EVOLUTION OF A BLOCKY, AMPLIFIED REGIME SEEMS
LIKELY.
THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR WAVES TO BREAK ANTICYCLONICALLY
OVER THE SHARP RIDGE NEAR THE WEST COAST AND TO DIG BACK INTO THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES AS OPPOSED TO PROGRESSING EASTWARD.

THE EXTENDED PERIOD MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON THIS EVOLUTION FAIRLY
WELL, ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SUBSTANTIAL DIFFERENCES IN DETAILS. THE
ECMWF IS MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE FLOW OVER THE WESTERN PART OF NORTH
AMERICA BY MID WEEK WITH CONSIDERABLY HIGHER HEIGHTS IN WESTERN
WASHINGTON, OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THAN THE GFS. THE HIGHER
AMPLITUDE IS IN AGREEMENT WITH EXPECTED EVOLUTION OF THE ATMOSPHERE
GIVEN THE STRONG NEGATIVE TENDENCY OF ATMOSPHERIC ANGULAR MOMENTUM
AND INCREASING THUNDERSTORMS IN THE INDIAN OCEAN. MOST OF THE
CANADIAN GEM ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALSO SUPPORT THE HIGHER AMPLITUDE
SOLUTION. AS SUCH, THE ECMWF LARGELY WAS USED FOR GRID
MODIFICATIONS.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY BEHIND THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT, AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP TO NEAR 10
DEGREES IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS. LEE TROUGHING AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW
WILL BEGIN TUESDAY NIGHT AND EXTEND INTO WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH TEMPORARILY SUPPRESSES THE RIDGE BEFORE DIVING SOUTHWARD.
WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE THROUGH SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS,
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S WEDNESDAY
BEFORE THE NEXT REINFORCING SURGE OF COLD AIR ARRIVES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. A SHARP MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED
FROM NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO ACROSS KANSAS THURSDAY, AND A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH RIPPLING THROUGH THE FLOW MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT
DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN FAR WESTERN KANSAS EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION SHOULD SPREAD EASTWARD
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. RELATIVELY WARM AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE MAY SUPPORT SOME LIGHT RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY, BUT THE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD CHANGE TO SNOW SOON AFTER IT BEGINS. CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE THURSDAY.

THE ECMWF CLOSES OFF ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER MANITOBA
TUESDAY AND DROPS IT SOUTHWARD INTO EASTERN KANSAS BY SATURDAY
MORNING, AND ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RIPPLES ACROSS KANSAS DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED, THERE
IS ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND BAROCLINICITY TO SUPPORT AT LEAST
SOME CHANCE FOR SNOW THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. A REINFORCING SURGE OF
COLD AIR FRIDAY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COLD THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. A
DECREASE IN AMPLITUDE OF THE FLOW SHOULD OCCUR THE LAST WEEK OF
FEBRUARY, AND A RETURN TO MORE CLIMATOLOGICAL TEMPERATURES IS LIKELY.

[Weatherdude20]

The last Winter Storm we started actually predicting on Sunday the 7th and talking about since around the 4th. It happened Wed night- Thursday night. It is now Saturday night, Im just suggesting we switch our focus to the next upcoming potential for a winter storm Thursday-Sunday. Lol its time we take out the criket soundtrack and get to crackin! It my be quite because its the night before Valentines day, ha, or just a Saturday night, but, for those of you that are here now and are intrested lets get to work ! Haha

[Ntxw]

The last Winter Storm we started actually predicting on Sunday the 7th and talking about since around the 4th. It happened Wed night- Thursday night. It is now Saturday night, Im just suggesting we switch our focus to the next upcoming potential for a winter storm Thursday-Sunday. Lol its time we take out the criket soundtrack and get to crackin! It my be quite because its the night before Valentines day, ha, or just a Saturday night, but, for those of you that are here now and are intrested lets get to work ! Haha

I'd like for the GFS to get on board first. As crazy as that model is, it's done an ok job this year long range wise. My concern for the late week storm is that there's very cold air coming behind it that will dry out the atmosphere lowering N TX's chances for snow or ice (though the euro pattern has a very similar look to the previous system we had). I think south Texas has a shot at it. The cold will also likely suppress the southern jet. Of course anything can happen, I'd like to see the ECMWF\Ukmet\GEM show a storm for a few more runs before I have much confidence in it. It looks to get cold though.

[iorange55]

Psh forget it! I'm calling it right now. Another foot of snow next weekend!







Kidding..............maybe.

[Weatherdude20]

Maybe.

I can't believe the amount of oppurtunities we have had for Winter Wx here this season.

And... I thought you were suppose to be negative? Hahaha if thats a negative forecast... Ha

[Ntxw]

Psh forget it! I'm calling it right now. Another foot of snow next weekend!







Kidding..............maybe.

What's funny is that this storm spoiled us lol. 2, 3, 4 inches just doesn't cut it anymore!

[txagwxman]

Yesterday: NWS 53F for DFW, me 46F...actual 44F.
I have to give myself kudos once in a while.

[Weatherdude20]

Actually 45 at Meacham!

[txagwxman]

May see upper 20s Tue north side of Houston (Conroe/Tomball/Magnolia) for a low.

[gofrogs2]

What are the new models saying.

[srainhoutx]

[NOUS42 KNHC 131700 COR
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1200 PM EST SAT 13 FEBRUARY 2010
SUBJECT: WINTER STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD)
VALID 14/1100Z TO 15/1100Z FEBRUARY 2010
WSPOD NUMBER.....09-075 CORRECTED

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS - NO CHANGE
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 71
A. P21/ 40.N 135.0W/ 15/1200Z
B. AFXXX 28WSC TRACK21
C. 15/0600Z
D. 19 DROPS ON TRACK
E. AS HIGH AS POSSIBLE/ 15/1800Z

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK:
A. PSBL WC 130 MISSION P21/ 40N 135W/ 16/1200Z
B. PSBL GIV FLIGHT TRACKTBD/ 16/1200Z

3. NOTE: THE WC130 MISSION FOR 14/1200Z ON TRACK 27
WAS CANX BY SDM AT 13/1600Z. ----ADDED WVW

Code: Select all

Sun Feb 14 02:53:48 2010 GMT
NOUS42 KWNO 140253
ADMNFD
 
SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE
NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS CAMP SPRINGS MD
0252Z SUN FEB 14 2010
00Z NCEP MODEL CYCLE IS RUNNING SMOOTHLY AND IS ON TIME.
00Z GFS RAOB RECAP...
CDB/70316 - REPORT NOT AVAILABLE FOR THE NAM OR GFS.
$$
WOOLDRIDGE/SDM/NCO/NCEP
 



[Ntxw]

NAM and GFS are conflicting with moisture via tomorrow's cold front. Would be interesting to see which is right.

[iorange55]

NAM and GFS are conflicting with moisture via tomorrow's cold front. Would be interesting to see which is right.

Come on flurries! Flurries when coming down a lot under the lights are almost prettier than a real heavy snow.

[Weatherdude20]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

I think widespread the Metro could see up to a dusting, maybe more, I think tomorrow afternoon-evening could catch a few of us off guard, 1-2 snow bands could work through from the northwest, associated with the coldfront, very strong winds will persist and 25-40mph wind gusts are likely and this could cause poor visibilites, and low wind chills, like the Christmas Eve event, except precip will be fairly lighter ! This is something we need to watch as we go through the day tomorrow, if this develops stronger than previously expected than drifting/Blowing snow may be possible, again all these factors are a potenital, but as the cold front approaches, we need to watch closely, for now minor impacts could be possible, but no signifigant accumulations expected.