ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[jlauderdal]

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/models/noaaport_loop.php?PATH=/var/www/leads_images/satellite/GML/COMP/&NUMBLOOP=25

Hard not to see something going on. I dunno.

thanks for the update donald.

[TropicalSailor]

Recent microwave shows the system is looking pretty ragged and highly asymmetric.



I wouldn't expect much further intensification until more symmetry is gained in the convective pattern. I'm not really sure of the source of the lack of convection on the NW side. It could be from a lack of low-level convergence due to the elongated circulation off to the NE.

Could we expect weak conditions when it comes ashore in areas west of landfall due to this or do you anticipate it filling out to full strength?

[CrazyC83]

00
URNT15 KNHC 010119
AF307 1109A HERMINE HDOB 17 20160901
011000 2418N 08549W 8425 01551 0083 +165 //// 200045 049 039 012 05
011030 2417N 08548W 8423 01544 0091 +145 //// 182052 053 046 077 05
011100 2416N 08546W 8434 01537 0094 +150 +150 186050 053 041 055 00
011130 2415N 08545W 8416 01561 0094 +158 +158 193046 047 028 053 03
011200 2414N 08544W 8432 01548 0081 +166 +166 195045 045 033 014 03
011230 2413N 08543W 8430 01548 0074 +166 //// 197045 047 031 007 05
011300 2413N 08541W 8425 01551 //// +168 //// 194045 046 /// /// 05
011330 2414N 08541W 8430 01545 //// +166 //// 191044 046 027 006 05
011400 2416N 08541W 8431 01548 0077 +167 //// 190045 046 032 007 01
011430 2418N 08541W 8429 01548 0087 +161 +161 190048 049 031 013 00
011500 2420N 08541W 8431 01546 0091 +163 +163 189048 048 032 011 00
011530 2422N 08541W 8431 01544 0088 +162 +162 185047 047 035 009 00
011600 2424N 08541W 8437 01538 0085 +160 +160 186047 052 033 010 00
011630 2426N 08541W 8437 01537 0084 +157 +157 190052 054 030 011 00
011700 2428N 08541W 8433 01537 0086 +159 +159 199053 055 037 026 00
011730 2430N 08541W 8436 01540 0088 +161 +161 190051 055 040 024 00
011800 2432N 08541W 8426 01548 0089 +159 +159 188051 053 039 014 00
011830 2435N 08541W 8424 01550 0084 +162 +162 192051 052 040 014 00
011900 2437N 08541W 8438 01537 0083 +164 +164 194048 051 037 014 00
011930 2439N 08541W 8425 01550 0087 +156 +156 200055 056 037 018 03
$$
;

Wind field enlarging greatly. The 46 kt SFMR seems unlikely there due to hitting an extreme squall.

[RL3AO]

I would agree. It's hard to get much stronger than 50 knots or so with it being so asymmetric.

[SouthDadeFish]

Could we expect weak conditions when it comes ashore in areas west of landfall due to this or do you anticipate it filling out to full strength?

I think the latest NHC forecast is very reasonable. A 60 kt TS would be my forecast as well.

[JaxGator]

May looked somewhat ragged but AF recon is still finding strong winds. That's what interesting.

[Hammy]

Maybe I have 1998 stuck in my head, but could this end up pulling an Earl and strengthen beyond the forecasts despite the elongated/asymmetric nature? Earl looked like an occluded system but was producing 100mph winds and ironically affected the same area.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

I imagine hurricane warnings will be issued tonight or in the morning based on trends this afternoon. The system is still lopsided, but the low-level and mid-level centers should align soon. Winds have increased sharply in the southeast quadrant over the span of these two reconnaissance missions. More organization and intensification should take place tomorrow as the storm moves parallel to the shear vector.

[OuterBanker]

Just saw the 18z gfs. Looks like a make believe worse case scenario. If we're a hurricane it would cause great destruction all the way to new england.

[CrazyC83]

Maybe I have 1998 stuck in my head, but could this end up pulling an Earl and strengthen beyond the forecasts despite the elongated/asymmetric nature? Earl looked like an occluded system but was producing 100mph winds and ironically affected the same area.

I had the same thought. Earl was a weird storm, did it also with a pressure of like 990mb yet produced strong enough convection to reach Cat 2 despite a terrible structure (it was like T2.5 or T3.0 at the time)

[Noles2016]

Maybe I have 1998 stuck in my head, but could this end up pulling an Earl and strengthen beyond the forecasts despite the elongated/asymmetric nature? Earl looked like an occluded system but was producing 100mph winds and ironically affected the same area.

Earl was fun... packed a pretty good little punch...

[JtSmarts]

Maybe I have 1998 stuck in my head, but could this end up pulling an Earl and strengthen beyond the forecasts despite the elongated/asymmetric nature? Earl looked like an occluded system but was producing 100mph winds and ironically affected the same area.

I mentioned Earl earlier today and I've been thinking the same thing as well.

[TimeZone]

It looks like crap honestly. It's running out of time as well. It's been a rather sad looking system for it's entire existence.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 010129
AF307 1109A HERMINE HDOB 18 20160901
012000 2441N 08541W 8430 01543 0087 +158 +158 204054 057 041 021 00
012030 2443N 08541W 8432 01537 0075 +165 +165 193051 053 045 017 00
012100 2445N 08541W 8420 01551 0079 +163 +163 181050 054 049 015 00
012130 2447N 08541W 8445 01527 0073 +165 //// 196050 054 037 005 01
012200 2449N 08541W 8427 01544 0066 +166 +159 194051 052 035 005 00
012230 2451N 08541W 8432 01540 0066 +167 +164 193049 051 035 004 00
012300 2453N 08541W 8429 01542 0067 +169 +168 192049 051 034 005 00
012330 2455N 08541W 8430 01542 0071 +166 +166 193050 051 035 010 00
012400 2457N 08541W 8426 01543 0082 +162 +162 187048 051 036 021 00
012430 2459N 08541W 8429 01539 0079 +167 //// 193039 045 039 022 05
012500 2501N 08541W 8435 01535 0062 +170 +165 194042 045 037 006 00
012530 2503N 08541W 8431 01542 0064 +170 +165 190048 049 036 006 00
012600 2505N 08541W 8430 01540 0064 +169 +168 194044 046 031 004 01
012630 2507N 08541W 8428 01544 0076 +161 //// 192051 052 032 008 01
012700 2509N 08541W 8426 01545 0069 +164 +158 190053 056 033 005 00
012730 2511N 08541W 8429 01542 0064 +168 +168 192049 050 032 005 00
012800 2513N 08541W 8421 01548 0071 +169 +167 190051 052 032 006 00
012830 2516N 08541W 8435 01534 0065 +168 //// 189050 052 029 006 01
012900 2518N 08541W 8429 01542 0068 +163 //// 188049 049 031 004 01
012930 2519N 08542W 8425 01546 0071 +161 //// 186049 050 032 004 01
$$
;

57 kt FL, 49 kt SFMR.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Recon through 9:19pm EDT:

[Evil Jeremy]

I have to imagine NHC will up the intensity to 60mph tonight and convert part of the Hurricane Watch into a Warning. I'm curious how they will handle the east wobble... although it seems it's resumed it's NNE course.

[Dean4Storms]

Yes. The elongation is due to the influence and pull of the trough SW to NE. That should also be the general direction of the storm itself. But as of now, that is not the case.

I don't know where you're getting your info. but Recon found the LLC and it had moved just a tad East of due North or NNE! You should track the overall position of the low level center fixes and not swirling clouds from a sat loop from above in this type situation where their is no clear eye to track!

But at this point, I don't think we can yet say that this measured motion qualifies as being "picked up by the trough". I'm waiting for something definitive.

The Storm stalled when it rounded the ridge that extended from the southern Gulf over Florida out into the Atlantic. The motion Northward now is due to height decreases to the north of it due to the approaching trough and the turn NE will be due to the line of least resistance.

[stormchasr]

Most likely a big rain event based on the ragged look of this thing. Nonstop rain in Orlando already.

[TropicalSailor]

I have to imagine NHC will up the intensity to 60mph tonight and convert part of the Hurricane Watch into a Warning. I'm curious how they will handle the east wobble... although it seems it's resumed it's NNE course.

I'm pretty sure it's still wobbling east a tad here these past two slides on sat. May go back and forth all night.

[Noles2016]

I have to imagine NHC will up the intensity to 60mph tonight and convert part of the Hurricane Watch into a Warning. I'm curious how they will handle the east wobble... although it seems it's resumed it's NNE course.

I'm pretty sure it's still wobbling east a tad here these past two slides on sat. May go back and forth all night.

Careful watching IR... recon is your friend...