ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/mikewdross/status/783823641838489600

[Batt2fd]

Link: https://youtu.be/mTgWRH0_pSk

[SoupBone]

I have friends in New Smyrna Beach, FLA (North of Cape Canaveral) who have secured everything as much as possible. They told me yesterday that one could not get even close to a gas station, as many were depleted and those that had gas had lines stacking back for what seemed miles. Store shelves were decimated in the essential supply areas.

They're going to evac, but have been unable to find hotel space. They've finally decided to simply get out early tomorrow morning, driving northwest while working the phone until they find a hotel with availability.

That's all you can really do sometimes. They will eventually find a place to stay. Pass them this advice. Try and pretend it's a vacation. My family has done it for several storms and it works. Yeah people are worried about their homes, but take in some sights, look for interesting places, etc. It helps take the edge off. Make the best of the situation.

[jasons2k]

Update from Jeff Lindner - 7:08PM:

Powerful hurricane Matthew batters the Bahamas…takes aim at FL east coast

Life threatening and devastating hurricane event likely for the E coast of FL

Preparations to protect life and property must be rushed to completion.

Mandatory evacuations in progress along many areas of the FL, GA, and SC coasts

Discussion:
Reports from the latest USAF mission indicate that Matthew has not intensified much since encountering Cuba and continues to attempt to rebuild its inner core. With that said the plane was still recording 100-110kt surface winds with the current intensity set at 100kts (115mph). Since then IR images have shown a massive explosion of deep convection over the NE side of the center which has wrapped nearly all the way around the center. There has also been a significant increase in lightning within the northern eyewall of the hurricane which research has shown proceeds intensification.

Track:

Just about the worst case track is now forecast for the FL east coast which will bring the damaging core of Matthew and possibly the eyewall along nearly the entire coastline from West Palm Beach to Jacksonville. It is very possible that the hurricane will make landfall and track along, just inland, or just offshore of the coast.

The ridge of high pressure NNE of Matthew that has shifted westward has turned Matthew NW and Matthew should maintain a NW heading at nearly the same speed of 8-12mph. On this track the dangerous core of Matthew will approach SE FL late Thursday and then track nearly along the entire length of the FL east coast on Friday and into/near coastal GA and SC late Friday into Saturday. This track will bring devastating impacts to a very large area that will require a significant response. Much of the FL coast N of Cape Canaveral has not experienced a hurricane of this magnitude in modern times.

Onset of tropical storm force winds is likely within about 18-24 hours over SE FL and spreading northward and intensifying to hurricane force winds Thursday night from West Palm Beach northward. The following major population centers are likely to experience the devastating core winds of Matthew: West Palm Beach, Vero Beach, Daytona Beach, Cape Canaveral, St Augustine, Jacksonville and potentially later in the period Savanah and Charleston.

Intensity:
Will need to watch carefully the next several hours as Matthew appears to be ready to intensify on IR and visible satellite images. Conditions are favorable for intensification of the hurricane through the next 48 hours with only the interaction with the coast of FL the one potential negative factor. Matthew is likely to impact the FL east coast as a major category 3 or 4 hurricane which will be the strongest hurricane to potentially strike the US since hurricane Wilma in 2005…yes stronger than both Sandy and Ike.

Impacts:

Severe impacts over a very large multi-state area is likely with human suffering significant by modern standards and widespread and long lasting disruption of commerce and travel.

Wind:
Sustained winds of 120-130mph with gust over 145mph will be possible along the entire eastern FL coast from West Palm Beach to north of Cape Canaveral with the highest winds experienced along the heavily populated barrier island. Winds of this magnitude will result in extensive damage to even strongly built structures and some structures will completely fail. All mobile homes will be completely destroyed and most trees will be snapped or uprooted. Widespread significant roof damage is likely with some complete roof and wall failures. Some structures will be rendered uninhabitable for weeks if not longer.

Hurricane force winds and tropical storm force winds will impact much of the rest of FL stretching all the way westward to the west FL coast including Orlando and metro Miami-Dade.

Storm Surge:
The adjustment of the track slightly west and the higher potential for the track of the eye right along the coast will bring a storm surge of 3-6 feet above ground level to the barrier islands along with battering waves of 10-15 feet. Evacuations of those barrier islands are underway and should be taken seriously as the storm surge will breach and destroy dune protection and undermine structures to the point of total collapse. Unprotected structures near the beach will be destroyed and washed away.

There is a much for significant storm surge potential northward toward the Jacksonville, Savannah and Charleston areas where the offshore coastal shelf is not as steep and the land near the coast is much lower. Additionally, the coast is a strong concave shape which will funnel the wind driven surge inland…however the expected surge impacts along the NE FL to SC coast will be highly dependent on the exact track of the center and how close it will track to that part of the coast.

Possible Storm Surge Inundation Above Ground Level for Advisory 31:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... n#contents

Rainfall:
The shifting of the track westward will bring rainfall amounts of 8-15 inches to the east coast of FL and 12-20 inches to the SC coast as the hurricane slows and begins to turn NE and ENE off the SC coast this weekend. These rainfall amounts will result in devastating flooding.

Actions:
Evacuations of storm surge inundation zones have been ordered along the FL, GA, and the entire SC coast. Follow all advice from local emergency officials.

South Carolina DOT has reversed (contraflow) all 4 lanes of I-26 from Charleston to Columbia for the evacuation of the City of Charleston.

All measures to protect life and property must be rushed to completion in the hurricane warning area and persons should seek sturdy shelters by mid afternoon Thursday in the hurricane warning

Florida Hurricane and Evacuation Information:
http://floridadisaster.org/info/

Georgia Hurricane and Evacuation Information:
http://www.gema.ga.gov/Pages/default.aspx

South Carolina Hurricane and Evacuation Information:
http://www.scdot.org/getting/evacuation.aspx
http://scemd.org/

[floridasun78]

:eek:

 https://twitter.com/mikewdross/status/783823641838489600

two people twitter that models showing it by south fl look like their like that models

[johngaltfla]

I have friends in New Smyrna Beach, FLA (North of Cape Canaveral) who have secured everything as much as possible. They told me yesterday that one could not get even close to a gas station, as many were depleted and those that had gas had lines stacking back for what seemed miles. Store shelves were decimated in the essential supply areas.

They're going to evac, but have been unable to find hotel space. They've finally decided to simply get out early tomorrow morning, driving northwest while working the phone until they find a hotel with availability.

That's all you can really do sometimes. They will eventually find a place to stay. Pass them this advice. Try and pretend it's a vacation. My family has done it for several storms and it works. Yeah people are worried about their homes, but take in some sights, look for interesting places, etc. It helps take the edge off. Make the best of the situation.

Tell them to get on Priceline.com NOW and look in Dothan, Pensacola, or Tallahassee. That's their best bet. Book the room and haul arse in the morning. Those are all 1 tank trips unless they are driving a tank.

[Michele B]

I have friends in New Smyrna Beach, FLA (North of Cape Canaveral) who have secured everything as much as possible. They told me yesterday that one could not get even close to a gas station, as many were depleted and those that had gas had lines stacking back for what seemed miles. Store shelves were decimated in the essential supply areas.

They're going to evac, but have been unable to find hotel space. They've finally decided to simply get out early tomorrow morning, driving northwest while working the phone until they find a hotel with availability.

Personally, I wouldn'T drive "northwest." Why? think about it! What direction is the storm moving in? NORTHWEST!!! Still in its path!

Go OPPOSITE of the storm. If it's moving NORTHwest, go SOUTHwest!

At least that's what I would do, based on what happened here during Charley. LOTS of people ran from Charley....where did they run? NORTHEAST!!! DIRECTLY TO WHERE CHARLEY WAS GOING!!! So when they got there, they were actually NO SAFER than if they'd just stayed home.

BAD advice. There is no guarantee YET that the storm will not take a more westerly path. Heading to the panhandle region would be the safest area for now. Besides, every room within 60 miles of Sarasota is pretty much booked now per our local news at 6 pm.

Agreed, panhandle is safest if you can get there, and not get caught up in lots and lots of traffic.

We are in a little town west of Lake Okeechobee, but not all the way to Sarasota. Went out earlier and so much traffic coming home - ALL going west, obviously running from the storm.

[meriland23]

Is this rapidly strengthening now or weakening, I am getting confused. It was bumped down a hop skip ago and the eye was unstable... curious

[Exalt]

:eek:

 https://twitter.com/mikewdross/status/783823641838489600

two people twitter that models showing it by south fl look like their like that models

The HRRR is a high-res model that's (sadly) EXTREMELY accurate when it comes to predicting 12-15* (sorry) hours out for storms, fairly new, but again very accurate (it did a great job with Hermine for example).

[ZX12R]

Update from Jeff Linder - 7:08PM:

[bWind:
Sustained winds of 120-130mph with gust over 145mph will be possible along the entire eastern FL coast from West Palm Beach to north of Cape Canaveral with the highest winds experienced along the heavily populated barrier island. Winds of this magnitude will result in extensive damage to even strongly built structures and some structures will completely fail. All mobile homes will be completely destroyed and most trees will be snapped or uprooted. Widespread significant roof damage is likely with some complete roof and wall failures. Some structures will be rendered uninhabitable for weeks if not longer./

Bears repeating. What we may be facing.

[Exalt]

Is this rapidly strengthening now or weakening, I am getting confused. It was bumped down a hop skip ago and the eye was unstable... curious

It's doing neither currently, however it's, how many seem to want to put it, poised to rapidly intensify. It's currently reconfiguring its eyewall still post-Cuba landfall, and going through an ERC as it seems (could be the main cause of the unstable eye), which is bad since it's this far out from FL. Post reorganization (which is expected to be completed sometime tonight), it's very likely we'll see very rapid intensification (as per the HRRR).

[Raebie]

I have friends in New Smyrna Beach, FLA (North of Cape Canaveral) who have secured everything as much as possible. They told me yesterday that one could not get even close to a gas station, as many were depleted and those that had gas had lines stacking back for what seemed miles. Store shelves were decimated in the essential supply areas.

They're going to evac, but have been unable to find hotel space. They've finally decided to simply get out early tomorrow morning, driving northwest while working the phone until they find a hotel with availability.

Have they also checked airbnb?

[RL3AO]

:eek:

 https://twitter.com/mikewdross/status/783823641838489600

two people twitter that models showing it by south fl look like their like that models

The HRRR is a high-res model that's (sadly) EXTREMELY accurate when it comes to predicting 48-36 hours out for storms, fairly new, but again very accurate (it did a great job with Hermine for example).

It only runs out 15 hours.

[Exalt]

two people twitter that models showing it by south fl look like their like that models

The HRRR is a high-res model that's (sadly) EXTREMELY accurate when it comes to predicting 48-36 hours out for storms, fairly new, but again very accurate (it did a great job with Hermine for example).

It only runs out 15 hours.

My mistake, for some reason I thought it went to 48.

[ConvergenceZone]

This hurricane is about ready to go ballistic in the next few hours. That discussion fomvJeff L posted is downright frightening. If everything he said comes to pass, this will go down as one of the most destructive hurricanes we've ever had, one that will be remembered for decades, and nothing about that is over-hype

[jlauderdal]

two people twitter that models showing it by south fl look like their like that models

The HRRR is a high-res model that's (sadly) EXTREMELY accurate when it comes to predicting 48-36 hours out for storms, fairly new, but again very accurate (it did a great job with Hermine for example).

It only runs out 15 hours.

very short range but effective..lets see how it does

[psyclone]

I have friends in New Smyrna Beach, FLA (North of Cape Canaveral) who have secured everything as much as possible. They told me yesterday that one could not get even close to a gas station, as many were depleted and those that had gas had lines stacking back for what seemed miles. Store shelves were decimated in the essential supply areas.

They're going to evac, but have been unable to find hotel space. They've finally decided to simply get out early tomorrow morning, driving northwest while working the phone until they find a hotel with availability.

That's all you can really do sometimes. They will eventually find a place to stay. Pass them this advice. Try and pretend it's a vacation. My family has done it for several storms and it works. Yeah people are worried about their homes, but take in some sights, look for interesting places, etc. It helps take the edge off. Make the best of the situation.

Tell them to get on Priceline.com NOW and look in Dothan, Pensacola, or Tallahassee. That's their best bet. Book the room and haul arse in the morning. Those are all 1 tank trips unless they are driving a tank.

That is superb advice. driving southwest is a terrible idea, even moreso when they are already so far north. the western side of the peninsula is full of east coast refugees. from new Smyrna they need to go west, preferably on a back road (I'd get on state route 44 west, get over to US 19 north to Tallahassee and get on I-10 west). that would be my plan of attack.

[johngaltfla]

Personally, I wouldn'T drive "northwest." Why? think about it! What direction is the storm moving in? NORTHWEST!!! Still in its path!

Go OPPOSITE of the storm. If it's moving NORTHwest, go SOUTHwest!

At least that's what I would do, based on what happened here during Charley. LOTS of people ran from Charley....where did they run? NORTHEAST!!! DIRECTLY TO WHERE CHARLEY WAS GOING!!! So when they got there, they were actually NO SAFER than if they'd just stayed home.

BAD advice. There is no guarantee YET that the storm will not take a more westerly path. Heading to the panhandle region would be the safest area for now. Besides, every room within 60 miles of Sarasota is pretty much booked now per our local news at 6 pm.

Agreed, panhandle is safest if you can get there, and not get caught up in lots and lots of traffic.

We are in a little town west of Lake Okeechobee, but not all the way to Sarasota. Went out earlier and so much traffic coming home - ALL going west, obviously running from the storm.

Okeechobee is under a Hurricane Warning and West of there a Tropical Storm Warning. I would not move anywhere near points from Sarasota south just in case this storm turns hard left (aka, Katrina) at the last minute. Based on the models and forecasts, you're in for a rough ride and those folks who bugged out to Arcadia could have a long night tomorrow also.

[Weatherboy1]

Well, it took seven hours but house is all shuttered and supplies are all stocked for Matthew here in northern PBC. Did most of my buying two days ago - and very thankful for that! Satellite view looks very impressive - will have to see if Recon obs eventually catch up.

[SFLcane]

Hrrr bringing eyewall into Miami

https://t.co/QS3RHd3HS3?ssr=true