ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[Bocadude85]

0z GFDL has landfall in Palm Beach County at 6z Friday morning.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfdl&region=14L&pkg=mslp_wind&runtime=2016100600&fh=0&xpos=0&ypos=0

[chaser1]

Also, GFS buries remnants of Matthew down in the Bay of Campeche at least by 222 hours (9 1/2 days). You'd have to think, if you've been thinking like me, that if it can hit that part of the 1995 analog, maybe something comes back up NE to hit Alabama or Florida late in the season to usher in Fall 2016 to the Southeast. Not sure this would completely degenerate unless upper conditions won't allow for continued maintenance or else intensification if it came back north across the Loop Current (ala Opal).

I'm curious to see what the rest of the run does, but I suspect it probably continues to weaken it or just forces it down into Mexico.

Aw c'mon Steve? And here I was thinking we might actually have a chance at a "Trifecta"! LOL

[jhpigott]

Euro running yet?

[Steve]

LOL chaser1. I can't believe how dead the board is. Maybe our general population is on the FL East Coast and people have **** to do. I'm 1000 miles away and kind of excited but need to go to bed. European is initiated. This is at 850mb. I'm thinking this may deal the card for landfall on Friday. I'm not a Euro hugger, but I will tip my hat to it so far for the general way it's handled Matthew. Hopefully it shows a stall and it just goes out to sea or something at this point. I thought last weekend hundreds of millions in the US, but this will tell us if it's that or billions.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 0&ypos=388

[ftolmsteen]

Baynews9's future radar shows Matthew landfalling near Jupiter. I'm not sure how to capture screen so I just provided link to radar. You'll have to click on future radar option.

http://www.baynews9.com/content/news/ba ... radar.html

[Bocadude85]

0z EURO shifts west..just offshore SE Fla at the 24 hour mark

[LarryWx]

Anyone have Euro hours 30,36, and 42? TIA

[sponger]

Ever present thumb ridge on 24 hr Euro.

[jhpigott]

0z EURO shifts west..just offshore SE Fla at the 24 hour mark

Sure is looking more and more like we here in PBC are going to catch the western eyewall

[Steve]

European out to 24 hours doesn't look good. Possible tropical storm conditions tomorrow?

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... t_us_2.png

[FLpanhandle91]

Euro has this thing dropping almost 20mb before landfall and shows 956mb at 500mb heights. That is a beast of a storm.

[Bocadude85]

0z EURO shifts west..just offshore SE Fla at the 24 hour mark

Sure is looking more and more like we here in PBC are going to catch the western eyewall

Yea the 24 hour position is east of Ft. Lauderdale, I would assume PBC would be the landfall location

[Hammy]

What should Titusville expect on this run?

[xironman]

Mid-west trough still sharper, not great for SC

[jhpigott]

0z EURO shifts west..just offshore SE Fla at the 24 hour mark

Sure is looking more and more like we here in PBC are going to catch the western eyewall

Yea the 24 hour position is east of Ft. Lauderdale, I would assume PBC would be the landfall location

Wouldn't take much of a jog west at that point to put the Jupiter area in the N or NE eyewall

[LarryWx]

0Z Euro 48 hour right on coast at St. Augustine. Not having 6 hourly intervals limits usefulness somewhat.

[SunnyThoughts]

48 hours Jacksonville (half storm on coast, half off)

[Steve]

What should Titusville expect on this run?

It's going to pay. Also, St. Aug, Jacksonville, etc. look to take a bad smack from this. I've been kidding northjaxpro and others all late season that this is their year. And it would only be fitting for Matthew to pay that visit. Sorry to see the ECMWF showing it does. I spent a lot of time over there and have great memories. Prayers, thoughts, etc.

[SouthernBreeze]

I see NHC is still sticking with curve out about Charleston, hoping this model keeps that track too

[Alyono]

At 11 PM tonight, the EC has a 939mb monster just 20 miles east of Palm Beach