ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[NDG]

https://twitter.com/JimCantore/status/1168536254448881664

Is not very often that we see coconut palm trees completely stripped off their hurricane resistent branches/leafs.

[NDG]

AF has a plane up headed for Dorian.

Hopefully 3rd try is the charm.

[supercane4867]

Appears to be stationary

[LarryWx]

My eyeballs are suggesting he’s been drifting ever so slightly to the NW recently. I still say from a FL/GA perspective that that’s better than the Euro’s tracks straight west to the western end of Grand Bahama. Let’s see what happens the next crucial 24 hours.

[hipshot]

Good morning!
That was a late night last night watching Dorian barrel westward until the stall finally verified way too close for comfort here in northern Palm Beach County.
It's breezy here this morning and seems to be picking up especially when the squalls roll through.
It's hard to imagine what our neighbors in the Bahamas have undergone last night and are continuing to go through right now just to my east.
My prayers continue for their safe delivery from this hell on earth.

It looks like Dorian's wind field may be starting to expand potentially having larger impacts on Florida even with an eye track off the coast.
I'd love to hear anyone's insight on what kind of expansion we could see?

Some pages back there was a great radar loop which captured the EWRC and you could definitely see the increase in the size of the eye and the wind field.
My big question is how fast does it continue on this 280 path and will that narrowing trough be strong enough to pull in north or will the trough retreat northward
under the influence of the high to its west.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

My eyeballs are suggesting he’s been drifting ever so slightly to the NW recently. I still say from a FL/GA perspective that that’s better than the Euro’s tracks straight west to the western end of Grand Bahama. Let’s see what happens the next crucial 24 hours.

Its still bearing west..but wobbling. My 9 month old can crawl faster than this storn

[NDG]

Just wow, I guess that's a wrap up on the first EWRC, now a much bigger eye has developed, so cool to see it on radar.

https://i.imgur.com/YlkVnnG.gif

The whole CDO has expanded on IR too. Surprised the wind field hasn't expanded more than it has.

There is really no way to tell because of lack of surface reports and it's been almost 12 hrs since the last recon. Next recon going should give us an idea if the wind field has grown, I am sure it has based on the now bigger eye.

[tronbunny]

Ummmm, does that mean no one can go to/from work between Tuesday 11pm to Wednesday 6am?
Some of us still have to leave for work BEFORE 6am!
https://www.clickorlando.com/weather/hurricane/osceola-county-activates-curfew-ahead-of-hurricane-dorian

[KC7NEC]

Ummmm, does that mean no one can go to/from work between Tuesday 11pm to Wednesday 6am?
Some of us still have to leave for work BEFORE 6am!
https://www.clickorlando.com/weather/hurricane/osceola-county-activates-curfew-ahead-of-hurricane-dorian

You don't now. They can't fire you as its a legal emergency declaration.

[NDG]

11-12 hr radar loop, over all very slow movement has been to the WNW to NW heading, as mentioned before a bigger eye has now developed.

[Yellow Evan]

Think this is beginning to upwell cold SST's given how warm the CDO is rapidly getting.

[KC7NEC]

Ummmm, does that mean no one can go to/from work between Tuesday 11pm to Wednesday 6am?
Some of us still have to leave for work BEFORE 6am!
https://www.clickorlando.com/weather/hurricane/osceola-county-activates-curfew-ahead-of-hurricane-dorian

You don't now. They can't fire you as its a legal emergency declaration.

As of this moment, there are thousands of employees scheduled to work at ALL the theme parks Wednesday morning before 6am.
This would be government interfering in business, with no real call for it. Under current NHC forecasts, the parks are NOT closing.

They don't have to close, and no "Government" is not interfering with business a HURRICANE is. There is a call for it in Oceola County.... its called an EMERGENCY DECLARATION. Having people out and about during the storm is bad for their safety, bad for emergency responders, bad for everyone. If you have a problem with it contact your employer and explain that you live in the affected area and BY LAW you cannot leave your home until after 6 am Wednesday.....Also, this declaration just happened, I won't be surprised if due to it the parks close or open later Wednesday knowing they can't get the employees there

[plasticup]

An NHC predicts movement of roughly 50 miles W-NW by 8am tomorrow so that might bring the core of convection on the coast by then.

50 miles is significant, don't see how it gets that far by then but they are fantastic with track inside 72 hours[/quote]

I agree that they are fantastic within 72 hours but with such an unusually strong storm, weak steering currents, and a narrow window between the forecast and a Florida landfall their advisories right now are of an unusually low confidence. The NHC has said as much themselves. I imagine they are as close to the edge of their seats as anyone.

[tropicwatch]

Buoy on west end of Grand Bahama now reporting sustained winds 45kts gusts to 57kts pressure 990.8mb.

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=SPGF1

[Jr0d]

Ummmm, does that mean no one can go to/from work between Tuesday 11pm to Wednesday 6am?
Some of us still have to leave for work BEFORE 6am!
https://www.clickorlando.com/weather/hurricane/osceola-county-activates-curfew-ahead-of-hurricane-dorian

Definately overkill. Osceola is not even a coastal county. Maybe they are short on funds and want fine a bunch of people.

[jhpigott]

PBI 24 gusting to 32. With current trends, I have my doubts we'll get sustained TS conditions at any point

[Emmett_Brown]

PBI 24 gusting to 32. With current trends, I have my doubts we'll get sustained TS conditions at any point

I think that could change if the wind field of the storm increases in size. That is what I am watching for today. So far, seems pretty much unchanged in size of the wind field so far. Remarkably stable storm considering how strong it is.

[Mouton]

On radar looking like moving to NW to me now. Wobble or eye expansion but looks like it is budging.

[Emmett_Brown]

Looks like recon is in the air according to Tidbits recon page. Can someone with more knowledge confirm? It will be good to get recon back in there.

[1900hurricane]

Think this is beginning to upwell cold SST's given how warm the CDO is rapidly getting.

I've been watching that too. I think it's just eyewall replacement related right now, but I'm not the most confident in that assessment.

 https://twitter.com/1900hurricane/status/1168548664345800706