ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

00z gfs has this accelerating right away from this moment on.. have to wait and see.

[toad strangler]

The last time I saw legit tropical bands (in Port St. Lucie) was in TS Andrea in 2013. This is a good analog I think. Early in the season but an impressive COC for a TS that landfalled in the same region pegged now and threw two distinct severe bands that day well S and E of landfall. I would post a radar shot or two from that one but don't want to confuse anybody.

[psyclone]

Honestly I am surprised with a prediction of a landfalling hurricane in the big bend that us in the Tampa bay area have still yet to see a Tropical Storm Watch.

If it ticks east anymore they'll have to pull the trigger. right now the eastern extent of the gales is near 85 degrees so we've got a couple degrees of longitude to play with..but that margin contracted a bit with this latest track.

[Bocadude85]

Honestly I am surprised with a prediction of a landfalling hurricane in the big bend that us in the Tampa bay area have still yet to see a Tropical Storm Watch.

I agree it is a little strange. According to the 10pm wind probability chart the Tampa area has a higher likelihood of experiencing TS force winds then the Destin area yet Destin is under a TS warning & Hurricane watch.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/212352.shtml?tswind120#wcontents

[SeGaBob]

Surrounded by alerts but none here...

http://www.weather.gov/chs/

[RL3AO]

Someone was correct that the convection is expanding a little further NW. Next recon flight will be interesting to see if we get stronger winds in NW quad.

[BRweather]

approx. 27 minutes to liftoff

[JKingTampa]

Honestly I am surprised with a prediction of a landfalling hurricane in the big bend that us in the Tampa bay area have still yet to see a Tropical Storm Watch.

If it ticks east anymore they'll have to pull the trigger. right now the eastern extent of the gales is near 85 degrees so we've got a couple degrees of longitude to play with..but that margin contracted a bit with this latest track.

Yeah, the system might be moving north, but if the convection keeps pulling it even just slightly more eastward, we will be in the 60-70% probability range. Even if we never get an official watch/warning...I'm still expecting possibly 45 mph winds.

[BRweather]

00z gfs has this accelerating right away from this moment on.. have to wait and see.

also incorrect surface pressure of 1001mb

[JKingTampa]

Also waiting to see if the banding sets back up as it did last night over the Tampa Bay area as this blob of convection finally moves on east out of here. Winds seem to slowly be picking up now.

[Evil Jeremy]

00z gfs has this accelerating right away from this moment on.. have to wait and see.

GFS makes landfall about a degree to the east of it's 18z run in 30 hours. Slightly stronger from last run as well.

You called a not-insignificant east shift for this run back when the 18z cycle was starting. Kudos.

[cdavis6287]

KHOU 11 in Houston just said it would come in at Panama City

No one really knows. Prob east of that location if I had to guess given the upper level circumstances but regardless looks to be rapibly intensifying and its going to be a large swath. I think most of north Fl and panhandle given the bands are going to feel tropical storm force winds and rain.

[Aric Dunn]

00z gfs has this accelerating right away from this moment on.. have to wait and see.

also incorrect surface pressure of 1001mb

was talking about forward motion...

[SeGaBob]

Surrounded by alerts but none here...

http://www.weather.gov/chs/

Never mind they just issued it here.

[txwatcher91]

Something else to keep in mind. A landfall further west around Port Saint Joe would give less time for strengthening. A little further east in the Apalachee Bay Area would give extra time over water. If the system is strengthening all the way to landfall then this extra time over water could make a difference. I'm currently thinking a landfall between the Apalachee Bay and Perry area with the worst weather behind on the east side of the storm.

[BRweather]

00z gfs has this accelerating right away from this moment on.. have to wait and see.

also incorrect surface pressure of 1001mb

was talking about forward motion...

oh I know. I was just making an additional point that it was starting off too weak

[Aric Dunn]

its definitely on the move still rather slow. nne to NE . pretty sure this is coming in the big bend area. unless it starts heading due north.

[psyclone]

Honestly I am surprised with a prediction of a landfalling hurricane in the big bend that us in the Tampa bay area have still yet to see a Tropical Storm Watch.

If it ticks east anymore they'll have to pull the trigger. right now the eastern extent of the gales is near 85 degrees so we've got a couple degrees of longitude to play with..but that margin contracted a bit with this latest track.

Yeah, the system might be moving north, but if the convection keeps pulling it even just slightly more eastward, we will be in the 60-70% probability range. Even if we never get an official watch/warning...I'm still expecting possibly 45 mph winds.

We should get some gusty winds with any squally weather but probably a swing and a miss for sustained ts winds. any additional eastward movement and I'd expect a ts warning down to Englewood. I still think the odds are against it but they've definitely increased some. as Boca mentioned we now have higher odds than the western end of the TS warning area. I was a bit surprised they extended them that far west to begin with...but they like a margin of safety.

[Aric Dunn]

wonder why recon left so early..

[JKingTampa]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

I realize the movement says NNE but I'm starting to get a little concerned about how much east this continues to drift..