ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[HURAKAN]

The Escambray Mountains are located in the south-central region of the island, extending about 80 kilometers (50 mi) from east to west, and 80 kilometers (50 mi) from north to south. Their highest peak, Pico San Juan, rises to 960 m (3,150 ft) above sea level. The Escambray range is divided into two sections by the Agabama River. The western part is called the Guamuhaya Mountains, and the eastern part, raising between Trinidad and Sancti Spiritus, is best known as Sierra de Sancti Spiritus. After Pico San Juan, the highest points are Caballete de Casas, Gavilanes, Loma de Banao, Caja de Agua, and Pico Tuerto.

Topes de Collantes is a nature reserve park established in the south-eastern ranges of Escambray Mountains, protecting and showcasing caves, rivers, waterfalls, and canyons. The Valley de los Ingenios is developed at the south-eastern foot of the mountains, and is a UNESCO World Heritage Site.

Link: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Escambray_Mountains

Also found there:

[chris_fit]

Exits around the cape.... pretty much over my head...at 54H

[AdamFirst]

Seems like it will exit the peninsula in the GFS around Indian River/St. Lucie Counties

Shades of Irene, anyone?

[cpdaman]

chris that shows an exit near Jupiter/port st. lucie not cape canaveral

[jhpigott]

Exits around the cape.... pretty much over my head...at 54H

this is starting to look eerily similar to Irene in 99'. I think this may catch some folks in my neck of the woods (NE Palm Beach County) by surprise

[Scorpion]

I agree.. could get some nice gusts here at least. Perhaps all this watching and waiting will be worth it.

[cheezyWXguy]

New GFS... SFL hit... from the south.

Looks to me like Fort Myers...I'm assuming you meant SW Florida, Not SE...

SFT

I would discount much of the run based on initial motion. From hours 00-06, the motion is totally due north, then a slight nnw shift from 06-12. already too far north, as the system's heading is about 300

[btangy]

New GFS coming in looks a lot like the 12Z ECMWF which was considered an E outlier earlier. GFS 500mb heights off the SE US are lower allowing more a weakness for Fay to squeeze through.

[Ground_Zero_92]

Seems like it will exit the peninsula in the GFS around Indian River/St. Lucie Counties

Shades of Irene, anyone?

I hope that does not verify!

[HURAKAN]

I'm tentatively waiting for RECON to arrive. Still about an hour or more away.

[SouthFLTropics]

The Escambray Mountains are located in the south-central region of the island, extending about 80 kilometers (50 mi) from east to west, and 80 kilometers (50 mi) from north to south. Their highest peak, Pico San Juan, rises to 960 m (3,150 ft) above sea level. The Escambray range is divided into two sections by the Agabama River. The western part is called the Guamuhaya Mountains, and the eastern part, raising between Trinidad and Sancti Spiritus, is best known as Sierra de Sancti Spiritus. After Pico San Juan, the highest points are Caballete de Casas, Gavilanes, Loma de Banao, Caja de Agua, and Pico Tuerto.

Topes de Collantes is a nature reserve park established in the south-eastern ranges of Escambray Mountains, protecting and showcasing caves, rivers, waterfalls, and canyons. The Valley de los Ingenios is developed at the south-eastern foot of the mountains, and is a UNESCO World Heritage Site.

Link: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Escambray_Mountains

Also found there:

Off Topic: What a beautiful place...I hope that someday the island is opened up for American visitors. I would love to take a vacation down there...

SFT

[jhpigott]

I'm tentatively waiting for RECON to arrive. Still about an hour or more away.

from the looks of the radar overlay, by the time recon gets out to Fay they may well find her LLC is already inland

[Sanibel]

Weird fluid ENE steady flow breeze here tonight. Normally we have calm at night in summer. We are in Fay's outer band flow now.

[HURAKAN]

FOR COMPARISON PURPOSES:





"The girl was bad, the girl was dangerous."

[txwatcher91]

I would discount much of the run based on initial motion. From hours 00-06, the motion is totally due north, then a slight nnw shift from 06-12. already too far north, as the system's heading is about 300

Nope, GR2 measured a NW to NNW motion for the past hour now, and Cuban radars confirm. Very believable IMO. Also, LLC is moving over the coast now, right over that small mountain.

[Evil Jeremy]

Remember, the 00z run is one of the more important model runs (the other one being the 12z), and this one should be incorporating the new data from the Gulfstream flight increasing the accuracy.

[Sanibel]

No doubt the CDO is moving over the center. The warm SST's are finally manifesting.

[Clipper96]

The Pico San Juan radar may have been knocked out or deliberately turned off - it's now a half hour behind the other Cuba radars.

[btangy]

The initial N-ly motion in the GFS isn't entirely unreasonable since the center may be reorganizing below the recent blowup of convection. You might recall the center was described as being elongated earlier, so the N-most end of the diffuse circulation might be spinning up and becoming the dominant center now and it appears to be very near the coast of Cuba. Of course, it is about to move over land now and may be transient. We'll see in the morning.

[cpdaman]

No doubt the CDO is moving over the center. The warm SST's are finally manifesting.

take a good look, this may be the best she EVER looks