Texas Winter 2017-2018

[cheezyWXguy]

The 500mb pattern for Feb 5 is not exactly the same as the last winter system. It is getting more consistent though. Watch how it evolves over the next few days, especially the western edge of that broad flat trough as it digs south. The stronger that gets and the further south it digs in the 4 corners area, the better the winter precip chances will be across TX. From run to run, it seems like the GFS is having trouble resolving both of these factors, and likely will continue to struggle for the next week.

Those of you harping on each individual model run's precip display are in for a rough 10 days. Watch the 500mb pattern over the next few days and see if it becomes more consistent. Temps and precip will become clearer in a few days if it does.

[Ntxw]

GFS is harping ~1055mb out of Montana latter next weekend. Euro doesn't send the whole thing but rather a small chunk. Are we setting up GFS vs Euro part II?



Keep in mind lately Euro has botched the MJO and Arctic/Bering blocks.

[Snowman67]

GFS is harping ~1055mb out of Montana latter next weekend. Euro doesn't send the whole thing but rather a small chunk. Are we setting up GFS vs Euro part II?



Keep in mind lately Euro has botched the MJO and Arctic/Bering blocks.

Yup just saw that. 1057 as it crosses the US/Can border. Still a long ways out but interesting nonetheless.

[srainhoutx]

Time to look a bit deeper into other features rather than focusing on the Deterministic and even Ensemble Guidance in the Medium to Longer Range with the extreme Blocking developing along the Northern Pacific into the Arctic. The computer schemes are going to struggle severely with such a strong Block like we have not seen in a longtime. The MJO as well as a very robust Convectively Coupled Kelvin Wave is creating havoc over the Pacific Ocean and that Kelvin Wave suggests a very noisy Eastern Pacific sub tropic jet cross Texas and the Gulf Coast States starting next weekend and likely continuing until mid February.

Our Teleconnection Indices suggest a -AO (Arctic Oscillation), -WPO (Western Pacific Oscillation), -EPO (Eastern Pacific Oscillation), and a + PNA (Pacific North American) as February begins. That typically mean anywhere East of the Rockies can be cold and stormy. What we Know...very cold air will build across our Source Regions of Alaska/NW Canada into the Canadian Prairies where temperatures could reach -50F to near -60F. There appear to be two may storm tracks. One across the Northern tier of the United States and another further South along the Southern Rockies/Southern Plains. The wild card in attempting to forecast what our sensible weather in the future is that noisy sub tropical jet where we may see Baja Upper lows develop inducing Western/NW Gulf Coastal lows to develop pulling down even colder air into Texas/Louisiana particularly around the 7th and again near mid February. My best guess is we likely will see 3 to 4 more freezes, possibly over a multiday period in February. Now that we see the MJO and that CCKW entering into the pattern, I would not rule out some sort of wintry weather event or two before our climatological favored month for Winter Weather of February ends.

[Yukon Cornelius]

After a few pretty warm mornings, we picked up another freeze. 24 this morning.

[orangeblood]

Have a bad feeling this Pesky +PNA is going to rear its ugly head again (Its been doing it all winter), west coast ridge will be just a little too far east and those from the Mississippi River east will be the place to be for wintry weather

[northjaxpro]

Srainhoutx, excellent analysis above regarding the outlook two weeks out and teleconnection indices.

Yeah. I pointed out in a post in the Florida Thread about paying attention to the subtropical jet stream in the next couple of weeks. I also am seeing indications that the STJ could get potentially active soon. I would not be shocked in the least if we see yet another winter storm event in the Deep South within the first 10 to 15 days of February.

[northjaxpro]

Have a bad feeling this Pesky +PNA is going to rear its ugly head again (Its been doing it all winter), west coast ridge will be just a little too far east and those from the Mississippi River east will be the place to be for wintry weather

Yes, this has been the story of this particular winter season for sure. +PNA looks to remain into February.

[wxman22]

[Yukon Cornelius]

Taking to all of the local farmers from around the area, the main consensus from them is that winter is pretty much over. It’s hard to argue with someone whose whole livelihood is based around the Weather. Hopefully for winter weather lovers sake, they are wrong.

[orangeblood]

Have a bad feeling this Pesky +PNA is going to rear its ugly head again (Its been doing it all winter), west coast ridge will be just a little too far east and those from the Mississippi River east will be the place to be for wintry weather

Yes, this has been the story of this particular winter season for sure. +PNA looks to remain into February.

Models are continuing their same pattern...teasing us in the southern plains in the long range with a negative to neutral PNA then trend positive as we get closer. Why should that pattern change is the most important question ?

[Ntxw]

GFS is a pretty potent blast coming. If you consider 5-10 bias it has, coldest of season thus far on way

[bevolon]

I guess i could turn on the sprinklers in the back yard next week! at least it will look like a winter storm hit! LOL!

[orangeblood]

For those in the DFW area, To illustrate our frustration levels with facts...this is the longest stretch of almost no measurable snowfall going back over 75 years to 1942-1945. Man, I hope February can deliver

[Ntxw]

Taking to all of the local farmers from around the area, the main consensus from them is that winter is pretty much over. It’s hard to argue with someone whose whole livelihood is based around the Weather. Hopefully for winter weather lovers sake, they are wrong.

I hope for their sakes, they don't prep their lands thinking winter is over. That would be a big blow.

The cold is coming, that is fairly certain. Precip is our big ?

[Yukon Cornelius]

Taking to all of the local farmers from around the area, the main consensus from them is that winter is pretty much over. It’s hard to argue with someone whose whole livelihood is based around the Weather. Hopefully for winter weather lovers sake, they are wrong.

I hope for their sakes, they don't prep their lands thinking winter is over. That would be a big blow.

The cold is coming, that is fairly certain. Precip is our big ?

Agreed. Precip is needed the most. My wheat is almost nonexistent.

[Ntxw]

Would be the strongest high to date of the season if verified

[gpsnowman]

Man the GFS is not giving up!! Hopefully the Euro starts to see the light this afternoon.

[perk]

Taking to all of the local farmers from around the area, the main consensus from them is that winter is pretty much over. It’s hard to argue with someone whose whole livelihood is based around the Weather. Hopefully for winter weather lovers sake, they are wrong.

I hope for their sakes, they don't prep their lands thinking winter is over. That would be a big blow.

The cold is coming, that is fairly certain. Precip is our big ?

Agreed you have to go with the science where the weather is concerned.

[Ntxw]

For those of you following ENSO this MJO pulse is going to generate a massive WWB west of the dateline. The cause for the extreme NPAC blocking. It will also likely be the wave to terminate this Nina. Thermocline slope is deepening to the west with successive oceanic downwelling kelvin waves. In short for those hoping to see a transition to El Nino to be on look out for future WWBs. Historically speaking will favor a year or two of neutrals.