ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I would discount much of the run based on initial motion. From hours 00-06, the motion is totally due north, then a slight nnw shift from 06-12. already too far north, as the system's heading is about 300

Nope, GR2 measured a NW to NNW motion for the past hour now, and Cuban radars confirm. Very believable IMO. Also, LLC is moving over the coast now, right over that small mountain.

I'm not saying it will yet, intill we get more model data supporting it, but based on motion and the fact that it is already moving northwest to even some radar data showing more like 320 degree's . Also the fact the Gfs is moving more eastward with the new data. I would not be blown away to see this get no more west then 81.8 then northward into southern Florida, then out back into the Atlantic. It would also not blow me away if this was a bigger threat to SC/NC.

[Sanibel]

The D-max is right on time to help it get across Cuba. Should see wind increase.

[cpdaman]

matt you are reading my mind

[Scorpion]

No doubt the CDO is moving over the center. The warm SST's are finally manifesting.

take a good look, this may be the best she EVER looks

I think she'll look better in the Straits if she really is intensifying now.

[txwatcher91]

20min movement, looks NNW to me, also note the nice banding and circular CDO developing.

[expat2carib]

I hated this mean lady from day one she was around here.

Ive seen, felt some storms building up (and freaking out) in the waters around her.

Fay was/is different.........She was sucking energy from the island in 2 days. Lots of Cirrus, Humidity, absolutely no winds at all.....and everybody felt tired afterwards.

Like she punched the Cirrus with a straw and was sucking energy like a bi.....

I have a boat in the Keys....but I.m more concerned for you guys.....and girls

STAY SAFE...... She might be mean!

[JonathanBelles]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Partial Advisory 081808

Tropical Storm Fay is approaching the southern Cuba Coast.



I am not doing a full advisory at this time. I more or less agree with everything the NHC has to say with a slight shift to the right. If you want to know you watches warnings, go to viewtopic.php?p=1775763#p1775763 . I think the faster Fay goes the farther west it goes, thus because of the slow down, I have shifted it east. The exact landfall point is very difficult because one degree of turn can change the point by 50 miles or so. Thus I have made the center line moderatly hard to see, because I think it would be very unwise to focus on that line. I will post a graphic tomorrow with all of the possible effects from Fay. Tropical Storm Force winds will be very widespread with this system and everyone in the peninsula needs to prepare for that. Conditions will begin going down in tonight, and the passage of Fay will occur Tuesday PM, again landfall time will depend on landfall point.

I will be doing a forecast tomorrow afternoon if I have the time. I will be making all last minute preps tomorrow, as should everyone else.

[Clipper96]

based on motion and the fact that it is already moving northwest to even some radar data showing more like 320 degree's . Also the fact the Gfs is moving more eastward with the new data. I would not be blown away to see this get no more west then 81.8 then northward into southern Florida, then out back into the Atlantic. It would also not blow me away if this was a bigger threat to SC/NC.

I concur. This is not a friendly-looking gulf: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html

Also, the upper low isn't getting out of the way anymore.

[NDG]

Funny how 00z gfs is very similar to 12z euro, it brings Fay to a crawl after Wednesday morning.
This would bring devastating flooding to parts of NE FL.

[AJC3]

Updated radar loop. 1445 EDT thru 2345 EDT...

[Sanibel]

I think the center is near 21.75N-80.85W and moving a hair W of NW towards Bay of Pigs. Slightly right of NHC track

[Canelaw99]

I know you can't always go by radar, but it sure looks a smidge more northerly than westerly to me - maybe a NNW heading??? Our local NBC met just said recon will be flying in later tonight but won't fly over land so their center will be an estimate.

[AdamFirst]

I think the center is near 21.75N-80.85W and moving a hair W of NW towards Bay of Pigs. Slightly right of NHC track

Are you looking at a completely different map?

[HURAKAN]

[Sanibel]

The trough is really digging. Look for a sharper turn.

[SouthFLTropics]

The trough is really digging. Look for a sharper turn.

I agree...Maybe JB has been onto something all along...Not just this time...

SFT

[Scorpion]

The Euro and GFS are agreeing on a stall and turn back west. Very interesting. I wonder if it could pull a Jeanne and come back to bite us.

[deltadog03]

Well, I will admit...looks like I will be wrong with my thoughts on where this would go...(which was app. bay) Very nice looking MLC on superres from keywest. heading close to 340.

[SouthFLTropics]

The Euro and GFS are agreeing on a stall and turn back west. Very interesting. I wonder if it could pull a Jeanne and come back to bite us.

That's not funny!!!

[HURAKAN]