Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[jasons2k]

Well, I got lucky this time. I took a gamble Dr. Jim on Fox 26 would be right (slightly warmer than NWS numbers) and did not wrap the Majesty palms. It's a pain, really. I had a low of 30, instead of 28 (or lower) as feared, so everything should be just fine. Now onto watching next week...and hoping it's the last gasp...

[srainhoutx]

29 here Jason with yet again some frost, although not as heavy as yesterday morning. On to a warmup before yet another sharp cool down.

[srainhoutx]

HPC Updated Morning Prelim Disco...

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
859 AM EST WED FEB 17 2010

VALID 12Z SUN FEB 21 2010 - 12Z WED FEB 24 2010


UPDATED PRELIM PROGS USED SOME OF THE NEW 00Z/17 GEFS AND ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEANS TO REPLACE THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF THAT COMPRISED
THE DAYS 3-5 IN THE EARLY PRELIM...AND WENT TO ALL ECMWF/GEFS MEAN
BY WED DAY 7. THIS UPDATED PRELIM CHANGE WAS MADE IN THE LIGHT OF
THE BIG CONTINUITY CHANGES IN THE 00Z/17 DETERMINISTIC ECMWF/GFS
FROM THEIR PREVIOUS 2 RUNS IN THE DAY 5-7 TIME FRAME OVER THE
CENTRAL/WRN CONUS. THE 00/17 ENSEMBLE MEANS OF THE GEFS AND ECMWF
WERE IN GREAT AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER OVER THE ENTIRE LOWER 48
DAYS 3-7....WITH BETTER THAN AVERAGE AGREEMENT EXTENDING WWD INTO
THE PACIFIC OCEAN.

ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI PLOTS SHOW THAT THE GREATEST CHALLENGE OF THE
DAY WILL BE HANDLING THE DETAILS OF SRN STREAM SHORTWAVES
UNDERCUTTING THE STRONG MID AND HIGHER LATITUDE RIDGE OVER THE W
COAST OF NOAM...ESPECIALLY THE LATTER HALF OF THE MEDIUM RANGE
PERIOD. CONCERNING THE NEXT POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT STORM TO AFFECT
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION MON/TUE...THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SURFACE PROGS
OF THE GEFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN ALL SHOW HIGH SPREAD IN THE N OR NW
QUADRANT OF THE SURFACE LOW. IT WOULD TAKE STRONG NRN STREAM
PHASING AS PER THE 00Z/17 CANADIAN TO PULL THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW
NE UP THE OH VLY. HOWEVER...THE STRONG BLOCK OVER THE SRN DAVIS
STRAIT FAVORS A MORE SUPPRESSED TRACK. STAYED TUNED FOR THE NEW
AFTERNOON MODEL RUNS. THE EARLY PRELIM WRITEUP FOLLOWS BELOW.


USED THE 00Z/17 ECMWF FOR THE PRELIMINARY FRONTS AND PRESSURES FOR
DAYS 3-5...WITH AN EVEN BLEND OF THE 00Z/17 ECMWF AND 12Z/16 ECENS
MEAN DAYS 6 AND 7. THE 00Z/17 ECMWF...GEFS MEAN...AND 12Z/16
ECENS MEAN CLUSTERED WELL WITH MOST OF THE MAJOR SYNOPTIC FEATURES
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE PERIOD. THE UKMET SUPPORTS THE ECMWF
WITH BOTH THE CHUNK OF POLAR AIR PULLED INTO THE SOUTHWEST DAY
5...AND THE MORE SUPPRESSED TRACK OF THE MAJOR WAVE CROSSING THE
EAST LATE MON/TUE DAY 5 INTO DAY 6. WE BLENDED THE ECMWF WITH ITS
12Z/16 MEAN THE LAST TWO DAYS TO SUPPRESS THE LATITUDE AT WHICH
THE CYCLONE PASSES OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST DAY 6...AS WELL AS EVEN
OUT THE LATITUDE OF THE NEXT WAVE OF PACIFIC ENERGY APPROACHING
NOAM AMERICA DAY 7. THE 99Z/17 GFS AND GEM GLOBAL LOOKED SUSPECT
WITH THE RUSH OF LOW PRESSURE UP THE OHIO VALLEY MID
PERIOD...CONSIDERING THE BLOCKY FLOW REGIME WHICH HAS HELD MOST OF
THE WINTER. THE SYSTEM CROSSING THE EAST LATE MON/TUE HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO HIGHLY IMPACT SOME OF THE AREAS ALREADY HIT BY MAJOR
SNOWSTORMS THIS SEASON.


CISCO/FLOOD

[Snowman67]

:uarrow: 29 here Jason with yet again some frost, although not as heavy as yesterday morning. On to a warmup before yet another sharp cool down.

27.5F at the house in Tomball this morning.

[Weatherdude20]

27 here in North Richland Hills this morning.

[BrokenGlass]

:uarrow: At least FW mentions it. But again, look at how they are so dependent on the GFS lol. Compared to everyone else.

Use all the tools. If this winter has taught anything, it should have taught that.

[Weatherdude20]

:uarrow: At least FW mentions it. But again, look at how they are so dependent on the GFS lol. Compared to everyone else.

Use all the tools. If this winter has taught anything, it should have taught that.

HEY! Thats my saying !

[WacoWx]

I'm growing out my beard in anticipation of this next cold snap. Have I made the wrong decision? I hope not because I base all of my life decisions on all of yalls opinions regarding weather in this thread.

[wxman57]

Well, 12Z GFS shows nothing too interesting next week - just cold rain with the really cold air arriving a day or so later. I'm pretty sure it's still clueless about next week, though.

For you, Portastorm - Austin Meteogram:


Dallas meteogram shows cold rain, too:


The extended range GFS forecast for Dallas-Ft. Worth is no better. Just a couple of light freezes:

[Portastorm]

Wxman57, you're going to have to do better than that! I told you I've had enough cold rain to last a winter. Cold rain doesn't help either one of us ... no bike riding for you and no wintry precip joy for me.

As for WacoWx ... I'm worried about you! I have a good recommendation for a therapist. She's a bit bossy, has dark curly hair, and goes by the name Dr. Van Pelt.

[wxman57]

Wxman57, you're going to have to do better than that! I told you I've had enough cold rain to last a winter. Cold rain doesn't help either one of us ... no bike riding for you and no wintry precip joy for me.

I do see a temperature spike to near 75 for Houston this weekend. Better cycling weather!

Unfortunately, as I said, I think the GFS is out to lunch. I'm afraid I can't declare winter to be over. I suspect the ECMWF will show much colder air down here next week, along with precip.

[msstateguy83]

URL=http://img180.imageshack.us/i/snowf.jpg/][/URL]

[Portastorm]

Wxman57, you're going to have to do better than that! I told you I've had enough cold rain to last a winter. Cold rain doesn't help either one of us ... no bike riding for you and no wintry precip joy for me.

I do see a temperature spike to near 75 for Houston this weekend. Better cycling weather!

Unfortunately, as I said, I think the GFS is out to lunch. I'm afraid I can't declare winter to be over. I suspect the ECMWF will show much colder air down here next week, along with precip.

Well, see ... that would work out for the both of us! You can get your cycling in this weekend and I'll get my winter fix next week. Perfect!

Meanwhile, the 12z run from the Land of Coldplay, the Beatles, and Bass Ale is in and it still appears to show a winter for us next week, if I'm reading it right:

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/UKHEMI_12z/ukloop.html

[WacoWx]

As for [color=#000000]WacoWx ... I'm worried about you! I have a good recommendation for a therapist. She's a bit bossy, has dark curly hair, and goes by the name Dr. Van Pelt.

I like dark curly hair and a girl who knows what she wants. but, there is cause for concern. being < 100miles from the biggest dump in the history of ever has left me jaded and unconsolable. Also, I have been accused of being Taliban twice already, so I got that goin for me...which is nice.

[Tireman4]

As for [color=#000000]WacoWx ... I'm worried about you! I have a good recommendation for a therapist. She's a bit bossy, has dark curly hair, and goes by the name Dr. Van Pelt.

I like dark curly hair and a girl who knows what she wants. but, there is cause for concern. being < 100miles from the biggest dump in the history of ever has left me jaded and unconsolable. Also, I have been accused of being Taliban twice already, so I got that goin for me...which is nice.

Caddy Shack eh WacoWx? LOL

[txagwxman]

Wxman57, you're going to have to do better than that! I told you I've had enough cold rain to last a winter. Cold rain doesn't help either one of us ... no bike riding for you and no wintry precip joy for me.

I do see a temperature spike to near 75 for Houston this weekend. Better cycling weather!

Unfortunately, as I said, I think the GFS is out to lunch. I'm afraid I can't declare winter to be over. I suspect the ECMWF will show much colder air down here next week, along with precip.

Yea Sunday 75-76F.

[Ntxw]

12z ECMWF = monster cutoff low just poised and aimed at Texas through 144hr, with it's own cold air and possible cold air already in place\moving south ahead.

Virtually every model now has a big storm out in the southwest, only difference really is timing. What's eerie is that the system looks a lot similar (at least from this far out) as the previous.

168hr weakens the low over Texas, northern half of Texas could possibly have a winter storm. Based on this run. Hard to tell with such big gaps lacking info. Doesn't look too much different from it's 0z run except maybe energy afterwords in the baja.

[WacoWx]

As for [color=#000000]WacoWx ... I'm worried about you! I have a good recommendation for a therapist. She's a bit bossy, has dark curly hair, and goes by the name Dr. Van Pelt.

I like dark curly hair and a girl who knows what she wants. but, there is cause for concern. being < 100miles from the biggest dump in the history of ever has left me jaded and unconsolable. Also, I have been accused of being Taliban twice already, so I got that goin for me...which is nice.

Caddy Shack eh WacoWx? LOL

BINGO! Big hitter, the Lama.

[gofrogs2]

Iam liking that new gfs run for dfw next week the potential is there for another masive snowstorm. WOW how one run changes things.

[iorange55]

My thought exactly NTXW I was looking at the models, and was like "Wow this looks familar"


Very, very, very strange.