ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[maxintensity]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-ir2.html

Run this loop and click trop pts. This is moving a good bit east of NHC forecast. Implications for NE? NC? Stay tuned.

[Meteorcane]

I just wanna ask if Irene is currently strengthening or weakening? Looks like there is some dry air penetrating the storm?

If you speak about pressure (the term that I find is best for determining intensification) it is strengthening at a fair clip.

[Wthrman13]

just want to throw this out there before the storm hits NC.
I have lived here on the southern outer banks for 45 years. it always seems that a storm coming up the coast from the bahamas and florida seems to "bump" or "feel" the coastline. and move east of the forcast by 25-50 miles or so. Usually if it is forcasted to go into Myrtle Beach, it ends up at Cape Fear. Forcasted to hit Cape Fear, ends up at Topsail Island, etc.
Will be interesting if it happens again, and would be an answered prayer for my community as well (g). And of course, this could be a wishcast.
Although I am not in anyway schooled in meteorology, its just something that I have observed over the years. I don't think that the models pick-up on this bumping the coastline thing, if it even exsists at all.
However, if this one does it again, maybe a few people with professional interests in hurricane forcasting will remember this post and consider it.

Hurricanes do interact with land in complex ways, which are still being researched. However, the models take this into account via the lower boundary condition (which handles the terrain features such as mountains, valleys, and hills, etc.), and they all take into account the different surface conditions between the ocean and the land surface. However, they all handle this in slightly different ways, which has implications for the track of the hurricanes in their forecasts. That said, the main factors that influence hurricane tracks are the larger scale flow features in the upper levels of the atmosphere (i.e. troughs and ridges), which are less influenced by terrain on short time scales. Terrain has an influence, but a relatively smaller one when compared to these steering currents.

[Jevo]

0z GFS Initialized

[ConvergenceZone]

This is going to be a historic event.

I agree. This is going to be a headline maker for some time...I know I'll be watching the footage on the weather channel all weekend.

[bexar]

I just wanna ask if GFDL is very reliable with regards to intensity?

[Dave]

[Dave]

000
URNT12 KNHC 260334
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092011
A. 26/03:20:00Z
B. 28 deg 04 min N
077 deg 20 min W
C. 700 mb 2588 m
D. 66 kt
E. 264 deg 8 nm
F. 359 deg 83 kt
G. 272 deg 11 nm
H. 942 mb
I. 13 C / 3047 m
J. 18 C / 3047 m
K. 14 C / NA
L. OPEN SW
M. C30
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 0.05 nm
P. AF304 2409A IRENE OB 06
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 107 KT SE QUAD 03:25:40Z
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[dekeoy]

Air Force Met, I'm in Wilmington, NC. I decided not to evacuate. Bad decision or am I OK?

I do not know where you live...but if inland...you will be OK. However...if told to evacuate...do so.

If you were here for Fran, you'll probably be OK. I'm more concerned about those who have never been through this type of system than those who have. It's nerve racking, it's scary and it's stressfull: however, as long as your plan is complete, you should be fine. There is no need to panic. If all holds true, we'll be on the lesser side of this storm but we'll still take our licks. I'm wondering myself what's in store for us and Ive got my fingers crossed my phone doesn;t ring tomorrow telling me I have to work.

[Chacor]

what are the chances of it reaching cat. 4 within the next day? The way I see it in the latest IR, looks like Irene's presentation is starting to deteriorate again... being sheared on the NW quadrant, or am I wrong?

Even the NHC isn't forecasting a 4. Environmental conditions are not particularly favourable to support a cat 4, although they may support a cat 3. OHC also appears to drop off further down the forecast track.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[maxintensity]

107kts FL in the SE Quad. You would think the NE quad would be a good bit stronger.

[Jevo]

0z GFS +12

[maryellen40]

when are the NYC and NE residents going to start taking this seriously?

[mf_dolphin]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-ir2.html

Run this loop and click trop pts. This is moving a good bit east of NHC forecast. Implications for NE? NC? Stay tuned.

Let's be careful here to not mislead people unintentionally. Yes it may be east of the line now, but it's been on both sides of the track of the last couple of days. Until there is a sustained difference between the track forecast and the actual forecast there are no implications for anywhere.

[bexar]

107kts FL in the SE Quad. You would think the NE quad would be a good bit stronger.

so probably gonna get lowered to 95 in the intermediate advisory?

I am quite puzzled with 942 mB, her with aren't picking up.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[fci]

If you listen to anyone on these boards...you best listen to AIR FORCE MET.. He absolutely knows his stuff. Take heed and take cover.

AFM is great. Listen to what he says.
If I see his name or any other name accompanied with PRO MET, it has my attention.
Be entertained by us gas bags and listen to The Pros!!!

[Texashawk]

Lowest pressure found down to 937. Per latest recon.

[abryant.ma]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-ir2.html

Run this loop and click trop pts. This is moving a good bit east of NHC forecast. Implications for NE? NC? Stay tuned.

Simply looks like an east wobble to me!

[Air Force Met]

what are the chances of it reaching cat. 4 within the next day? The way I see it in the latest IR, looks like Irene's presentation is starting to deteriorate again... being sheared on the NW quadrant, or am I wrong?

Sorry but your wrong on that one. There is good outflow in the NW quad. The SW quad is a little restricted but the overall IR presentation is becoming excellent...especially around the center. For the first time in a long time the center is surrounded by really deep convection and the eye is becoming more and more visible...although there is probably some fishbowl effect going on with the higher cloud tops creeping in over the center now with the latest convective bursts.

[Dave]

727
URNT15 KNHC 260340
AF304 2409A IRENE HDOB 15 20110826
033030 2742N 07652W 6964 02872 //// +095 //// 224098 099 073 007 01
033100 2741N 07651W 6963 02883 //// +103 //// 224094 095 073 007 01
033130 2740N 07650W 6968 02888 //// +108 //// 225093 094 072 006 01
033200 2738N 07648W 6961 02907 //// +108 //// 226093 095 071 006 01
033230 2737N 07647W 6968 02905 //// +101 //// 226093 094 071 007 01
033300 2736N 07646W 6968 02913 //// +110 //// 222091 091 070 005 01
033330 2735N 07645W 6969 02919 //// +106 //// 222093 094 072 004 01
033400 2734N 07644W 6972 02924 //// +103 //// 224094 096 069 001 01
033430 2733N 07642W 6973 02934 //// +107 //// 224094 094 070 003 01
033500 2731N 07641W 6970 02944 //// +104 //// 220096 097 069 001 01
033530 2730N 07640W 6965 02955 //// +101 //// 219099 100 069 002 01
033600 2729N 07639W 6977 02945 9807 +104 //// 222096 097 070 001 01
033630 2728N 07638W 6965 02967 9814 +109 //// 221093 093 068 000 05
033700 2727N 07637W 6969 02968 9822 +109 //// 219092 093 067 000 05
033730 2726N 07635W 6961 02983 9826 +110 //// 220090 090 066 002 01
033800 2725N 07634W 6971 02975 9829 +113 //// 220090 090 064 001 01
033830 2724N 07633W 6965 02988 9844 +105 //// 219088 089 063 003 01
033900 2723N 07632W 6966 02991 9846 +107 //// 219087 087 064 004 01
033930 2721N 07631W 6971 02990 9859 +100 //// 218086 087 063 004 01
034000 2720N 07630W 6967 03000 //// +096 //// 217084 085 062 006 01
$$
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100 kt flt; 73 kt sfmr; SE Quad