Pouch PGI46L - Near Windwards - (Is invest 95L)

[Vortex]

IMO the important thing to take from this is there is the potential for a very powerful cyclone over the NW carribean...I also think the threat is increasing to areas from New orleans eastward....

[cycloneye]

This shows that after 192 hours, is lalaland as 6 hours ago we were talking about a powerful hurricane slamming South Florida, however it is some entretainment. But guess what, is another run by GFS showing something developing since September 10th.

[ROCK]

nice loop up the EC then south back towards the carolinas....

only the GFS....

[Ivanhater]

Not so fast Vortex...GFS has the cutting off lows in very different places in the long range. Would not take much for the GFS to drop the cut off low and this to miss the trough and a ridge to build back. Similar to Euro and Canadian.

BTW...the trough does not fully pick it up this run and a ridge pushes it back south

[Vortex]

18Z NOGAPS show 46 linking with the broad area of low pressure over the SW carribean and then coming together...exactly my thinking..




https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[cycloneye]

18Z NOGAPS show 46 linking with the broad area of low pressure over the SW carribean and then coming together...exactly my thinking..




https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

Do you have a graphic as I can't open the link?

[KWT]

Yeah the GFS is almost certainly overdoing the upper trough at the moment but thats probably simply because of the resolution flip, as it comes into the higher resolution you'll probably see the system shift westwards...the set-up the GFS is trying to bring in is more of a mid-late October idea, possible but IMO overdoing it...

[SFLcane]

18Z NOGAPS show 46 linking with the broad area of low pressure over the SW carribean and then coming together...exactly my thinking..




https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

Do you have a graphic as I can't open the link?

[ROCK]

IMO the important thing to take from this is there is the potential for a very powerful cyclone over the NW carribean...I also think the threat is increasing to areas from New orleans eastward....

I will disagree....there is not any threat increasing for any one particular area at this time frame....the EURO is completely different. Until it switches (maybe tonight) then I will take a closer look...

[ConvergenceZone]

I think it's like Ivan was mentioning yesterday. The models are going to continue to flip flop back and forth for awhile....

Wow, 38 pages for a Pouch......

[ROCK]

The NOGAPS is also quicker with development...hugs the coast of CA...


BTW- the mighty GFS at 384hr pushes 46 all the way back down the EC and into the Bahamas....

[ROCK]

18Z NOGAPS show 46 linking with the broad area of low pressure over the SW carribean and then coming together...exactly my thinking..




https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

at 144hr thats a good 3 days before the GFS develops anything.....GFS is becoming suspect IMO....

[hurricaneCW]

You gotta love the gfs, especially the 18 runs, they are hilarious. Has a massive trough that digs all the way to the Caribbean, pulls it NE, east of Florida, east of the Carolinas, than loops it back and near the Bahamas and Florida again. It would be incredibly unusual for that solution to verify, we'll see plenty off more odd runs in the future until things begin to consolidate. It will take more than 5 days for things to start coming together. The eastern gulf and Florida remain most at risk.

[ROCK]

You gotta love the gfs, especially the 18 runs, they are hilarious. Has a massive trough that digs all the way to the Caribbean, pulls it NE, east of Florida, east of the Carolinas, than loops it back and near the Bahamas and Florida again. It would be incredibly unusual for that solution to verify, we'll see plenty off more odd runs in the future until things begin to consolidate. It will take more than 5 days for things to start coming together. The eastern gulf and Florida remain most at risk.

I think FL westward to MX is most at risk....

[Vortex]

18Z GFS ensembles a bit further west



http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... cal288.gif

[Ivanhater]

Here is the difference between the GFS and Euro upper air pattern at 240 hours. Quite different.

I think the GFS is too quick picking this up out of the Caribbean because it shows a cut off low pinching off from the trough. My guess would be the GFS will show in the future this system missing the first trough because it is not going to be as deep at the GFS is currently showing.

I think the system will move into the Gulf and from there, anything could happen.

[srainhoutx]

HPC in Final Disco...

THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE WAVE TRAIN FROM THE PACIFIC AND THEN
WESTERN US SPILLS OVER INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN US SAT/SUN.
THE 00Z ECMWF BROKE CONTINUITY AND NOW DEVELOPS A CLOSED 500 MB
HIGH OVER CA SAT. DOWNSTREAM...THE 500 MB TROUGH AMPLIFIES COMING
OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS AND THE ECMWF EVEN DEVELOPS A
CLOSED LOW NEAR THE TX/NM BORDER BY 12Z SUN. NONE OF THE PRIOR RUN
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOWED THIS SOLUTION...WHICH IS ALSO OUT OF
SYNCH WITH TELECONNECTIONS.

FARTHER EASTWARD...SIGNIFICANT STRENGTH/TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH
THE DEVELOPING TROUGH EXIST. GFS ENSEMBLES BECOME ANOMOLOUSLY
AMPLIFIED. ALSO...THE 00 UTC CANADIAN/ECMWF MOVE THE TROUGH OFF
THE COAST FASTER THAN THE 00 UTC GFS/12Z SAT ECMWF/00Z CANADIAN
ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE LATTER CLUSTER DOES LINES UP WELL WITH
TELECONNECTIONS FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC CLOSED LOW...WHICH SHOWS A
BUILDING WEST NORTHERN AMERICA 500 MB RIDGE AND LOW AMPLITUDE
GREAT LAKES/UPPER OH VALLEY TROUGH. HOWEVER...AM CONCERNED THAT
THE WEST-CENTRAL NORTH AMERICAN RIDGE MAY NOT BUILD AS STRONG AS
SOME GUIDANCE SUGGSTS WITH ALL THE FLOW/EMBEDDED SYSTEMS.
THEREFORE...A MORE COMPROMISE RIDGE AMPLITIDE MAY BE LEND A
EAST-CENTRAL US MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SOLUTION MORE IN LINE WITH
A MORE COMPROMISE 06 UTC GFS/00 UTC ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN BLEND.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdepd.html

[ROCK]

HPC in Final Disco...

THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE WAVE TRAIN FROM THE PACIFIC AND THEN
WESTERN US SPILLS OVER INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN US SAT/SUN.
THE 00Z ECMWF BROKE CONTINUITY AND NOW DEVELOPS A CLOSED 500 MB
HIGH OVER CA SAT. DOWNSTREAM...THE 500 MB TROUGH AMPLIFIES COMING
OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS AND THE ECMWF EVEN DEVELOPS A
CLOSED LOW NEAR THE TX/NM BORDER BY 12Z SUN. NONE OF THE PRIOR RUN
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOWED THIS SOLUTION...WHICH IS ALSO OUT OF
SYNCH WITH TELECONNECTIONS.

FARTHER EASTWARD...SIGNIFICANT STRENGTH/TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH
THE DEVELOPING TROUGH EXIST. GFS ENSEMBLES BECOME ANOMOLOUSLY
AMPLIFIED. ALSO...THE 00 UTC CANADIAN/ECMWF MOVE THE TROUGH OFF
THE COAST FASTER THAN THE 00 UTC GFS/12Z SAT ECMWF/00Z CANADIAN
ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE LATTER CLUSTER DOES LINES UP WELL WITH
TELECONNECTIONS FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC CLOSED LOW...WHICH SHOWS A
BUILDING WEST NORTHERN AMERICA 500 MB RIDGE AND LOW AMPLITUDE
GREAT LAKES/UPPER OH VALLEY TROUGH. HOWEVER...AM CONCERNED THAT
THE WEST-CENTRAL NORTH AMERICAN RIDGE MAY NOT BUILD AS STRONG AS
SOME GUIDANCE SUGGSTS WITH ALL THE FLOW/EMBEDDED SYSTEMS.
THEREFORE...A MORE COMPROMISE RIDGE AMPLITIDE MAY BE LEND A
EAST-CENTRAL US MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SOLUTION MORE IN LINE WITH
A MORE COMPROMISE 06 UTC GFS/00 UTC ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN BLEND.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdepd.html

Steve, that was deep man...real deep....

[srainhoutx]

Glad you liked it.

[Wx_Warrior]

This is almost as entertaining as the Redskins vs. Texans game....got me some more popcorn!