ATL: CRISTOBAL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Alyono]

also, there likely will be NO recon overnight since this is not a TC. No nighttime low level invests

[HurricaneBelle]

Interesting that as soon as those 18z tropical models came out Orlando's WFTV Met is now saying FL is not out of the woods yet, lol.

Well the 18Z GFS now takes it to Florida after slowing it down considerably in the Bahamas, details in the models thread.

[floridasun78]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/ Invest 96L Slowly Organizing – Future Track Still Uncertain

[Steve]

Thanks floridasun78. Awesome Levi video and as usual.

This high over the Gulf South has made it about as hot as is it's been here in NOLA this summer (maybe one or two days were warmer?). I'm looking way up toward you near Ascension Parish, Canada CycloneMike. It's hot baby. Glad to see Levi has the high migrating East which should eventually bring us some SE winds which have been sorely lacking this summer for fisherman. It's been mostly W, WSW and SW winds (alternating with N and NW behind the fronts). Transient or otherwise, this ain't the same pattern we've been in this summer.

[tolakram]

Live 30 frame visible as the sun sets.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=20&lon=-70&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=95&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=30

[floridasun78]

Thanks floridasun78. Awesome Levi video and as usual.

This high over the Gulf South has made it about as hot as is it's been here in NOLA this summer (maybe one or two days were warmer?). I'm looking way up toward you near Ascension Parish, Canada CycloneMike. It's hot baby. Glad to see Levi has the high migrating East which should eventually bring us some SE winds which have been sorely lacking this summer for fisherman. It's been mostly W, WSW and SW winds (alternating with N and NW behind the fronts). Transient or otherwise, this ain't the same pattern we've been in this summer.

i know him by friend he know tropical well he now going school fsu so can work at nhc in miami i may go see him few year

[Slughitter3]

You'll have to forgive me as this is one of my first times posting, I would say I'm nothing more than an enthusiast, and I'm learning a lot from this site, but any thoughts on this scenario??? Just looking sadly familiar.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1935_Labor ... _track.png

[Alyono]

running into strong shear now. Outflow to the west is being flattened

[Weatherboy1]

Some serious convection firing off now - can't imagine this will go all night without a designation.

[Hammy]

Some serious convection firing off now - can't imagine this will go all night without a designation.

They'll likely wait until the next recon tomorrow.

running into strong shear now. Outflow to the west is being flattened

Did the models pick this up at all or was the shear underestimated yet again?

[cycloneye]

Up to 80%-90%


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating the
area of disturbed weather near Puerto Rico and Hispaniola reported
winds of tropical storm force over the open waters north of those
islands. However, the aircraft data and surface observations
indicate that the system still lacks a well-defined surface
circulation. Another Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is
scheduled to investigate the system on Saturday morning, if
necessary.

Showers and thunderstorms associated with the system are gradaully
becoming better organized, but the proximity of the system to
Hispaniola could limit development tonight. Conditions are expected
to become more conducive for development when the disturbance moves
near or over the southeastern Bahamas on Saturday. Gusty winds and
heavy rains are expected across Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands
tonight, and over portions of Hispaniola and the southeastern and
central Bahamas tonight and Saturday. These heavy rains could cause
life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in the
mountainous areas of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico. Interests in the
southeastern and central Bahamas should monitor the progress of this
disturbance, since tropical storm watches or warnings could be
required with little advance notice.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

[Alyono]

Some serious convection firing off now - can't imagine this will go all night without a designation.

They'll likely wait until the next recon tomorrow.

running into strong shear now. Outflow to the west is being flattened

Did the models pick this up at all or was the shear underestimated yet again?

the shear was forecast, but not from the SW. It was supposed to be NW shear

[NDG]

Some serious convection firing off now - can't imagine this will go all night without a designation.

They'll likely wait until the next recon tomorrow.

running into strong shear now. Outflow to the west is being flattened

Did the models pick this up at all or was the shear underestimated yet again?

the shear was forecast, but not from the SW. It was supposed to be NW shear

There has been an UL trough ahead of it all along, why would it not be from SW?
Or do you mean that eventually could be from the NW?

[Alyono]

There has been an UL trough ahead of it all along, why would it not be from SW?
Or do you mean that eventually could be from the NW?

SHIPS was indicating NW shear, not SW shear

[Sanibel]

Slightly better curvature. But does it mean anything?

[tolakram]

Live IR: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=22&lon=-70&info=ir&zoom=2&width=1000&height=800&quality=95&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=10

RAMDIS VIS/IR: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop.asp?data_folder=tropical/tropical_ge_4km_visir2_floater_1&width=640&height=480&number_of_images_to_display=12

[Alyono]

any center that forms now would be exposed. It is along 70W right now

[TheStormExpert]

NHC not buying the GFS and other models sudden westward shift.

[floridasun78]

NHC not buying the GFS and other models sudden westward shift.

i notice that unless their didnt change from 2pm map

[ronjon]

NHC not buying the GFS and other models sudden westward shift.

Of course, waiting on 00z runs to make any changes. They are conservative which is a good thing.