ATL: JOAQUIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[TheStormExpert]

Alot of towers going up near the core and also in the spiral banding atm looks to me this system is in a RI phase now.

Yeah this thing looks like its about to go full beast mode on visible loop....

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=26&lon=-71&info=ir&zoom=2&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=30&mapcolor=gray

Very ominous looking.

[AutoPenalti]

By the time I wake up tomorrow(today) at 8am, I would either expect:

A) An eye
B) Strong Cat 1
C) Track shifted west
D) Gasps

[SunnyThoughts]

The fact that quite a bit of rain is forecast for parts of the East Coast leading up to the landfall is very troubling as well. We all know how easily trees tend to come down with even tropical storm force winds after their roots are waterlogged for an extended period of time.

[Aric Dunn]

Latest image showing another hot tower building on the SW/W side. Should see the NW side build over the next hour or so.

[Kingarabian]

The convection is so flat to the WNW.

[txwatcher91]

Latest image showing another hot tower building on the SW/W side. Should see the NW side build over the next hour or so.

HWRF simulated satellite is ominous.. Takes what we see and develops a nice eye Wednesday then bombs the storm on Thursday. Take a look at this

[1900hurricane]

Backbuilding convection along the southern eyewall is a strengthening signal if I've ever seen one.

[Aric Dunn]

:uarrow:

The convection is so flat to the WNW.

yes typical of a organizing hurricane as it establishes the inner core. watch for the convection to build very shortly in that area ...

[emeraldislenc]

Wednesday will be an interesting day. It has really intensified fast and it will only continue to grow. The 5 am advisory will be eagerly anticipated!

[Steve]

Gotta love the GFS 20-25" of rain for Northern SC and southern NC. That's crazy. Nothing much happening in the WPAC to get a good feel of the upcoming pattern. It seems as though it could range from a fish storm (after the Bahamian Kingdom) to a stretched out plume of moisture to a legitimate US threat. It's supposed to cool off here when the front gets through to where we are forecasted down to sunny upper 70s. That means a pretty strong high behind the front. That coming down on Joaquin over the top would seem to be why the GFS kicks it so hard left to almost a shortcut storm hit on the east coast. But oddly enough, GFS spins Joaquin into a coastal low which rides up the Southeast, west of the eventual hurricane. Hard to say if it's remnants of 99L or if it's maybe even the western gulf low or an impulse along the front. But it totally spins in the circulation. Run GFS at 500mb. Crazy solution.

[Ivanhater]

BTW..I see a lot of guest on with this evolving situation..Please take the time to register and join the S2K family!

[Hammy]

Given how well it's done with storms that aren't named Erika, if the HWRF gets it right with this then I think the model should gain a good deal of credibility, most recently it was one of the earlier models to show Ida not reach hurricane strength while Euro and GFS were exploding it.

[EquusStorm]

Really going to be an interesting intermediate advisory coming up... one would wonder whether they're gonna be conservative and hold off on pulling the hurricane trigger for a few more hours, or go ahead and bump it up given its increasingly ominous satellite presence.

The official NHC forecast peak will tie it in sustained winds with its name predecessor Juan of 2003, but given the discussions here and model implications, I wouldn't be shocked if it surpasses the 90kt forecast a little, if briefly. Unless something unexpected happens with the core structure or dry air and it stagnates, of course.

[Ntxw]

Yes register, jump in

On another note, is that an outflow boundary on the west side? That would explain the collapsing thunderstorms and warmer cloud tops on that side short term

[WeatherEmperor]

Nhc keeps it a TS at 2am with 70mph winds


Sent from my iPhone6 using Tapatalk

[Aric Dunn]

Yes register, jump in

On another note, is that an outflow boundary on the west side? That would explain the collapsing thunderstorms and warmer cloud tops on that side short term

no that is a boundary that has developed from the upper level outflow and the remaining high level shear right now the outflow is pushing it back but should slow its westward progression over time.

[Aric Dunn]

Nhc keeps it a TS at 2am with 70mph winds


Sent from my iPhone6 using Tapatalk

yeah not enough data currently.

[1900hurricane]

I think it might be a deformation zone aloft. There's a pretty abrupt difference of air motion on either side of it judging by the water vapor loop. Typhoon Dujuan had a similar feature near this point in its development too.

[EquusStorm]

Can't say I'm too surprised. It's still in its organizing phase after all and trying to completely stack before it'll really take off. The satellite presentation is impressive but a tough call as it's right on that TS-H boundary; microwave imagery indicates pretty nice core forming. Nevertheless I do feel it's likely I'll wake up to advisories for the season's third hurricane in the morning.

[Ntxw]

I think it might be a deformation zone aloft. There's a pretty abrupt difference of air motion on either side of it judging by the water vapor loop. Typhoon Dujuan had a similar feature near this point in its development too.

WV shows it's been racing outwards pretty quickly