Texas Winter 2019-2020

[wxman57]

Perfect bicycle riding weather...

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@RyanMaue — Currently -54°F in Bettles, Alaska -- nearly record cold for both Dec 26th & 27th. About as cold as it can get in December up there.

I like it when it's cold in Alaska. That means it's almost always warm in Texas. Biked 20-25 miles in shorts and short sleeves yesterday and on Christmas. Going for 40+ miles today.

[Common sense]

Perfect bicycle riding weather...

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@RyanMaue — Currently -54°F in Bettles, Alaska -- nearly record cold for both Dec 26th & 27th. About as cold as it can get in December up there.

I like it when it's cold in Alaska. That means it's almost always warm in Texas. Biked 20-25 miles in shorts and short sleeves yesterday and on Christmas. Going for 40+ miles today.

And yet still, no one cares

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Warm one this morning. I always love it when the low temp is the normal high. It's actually warm across the country today so we are not alone. Where is winter??????

Besides a few brief shots here and there some even with winter precip, been asking myself this over and over the last few years. This one is shaping up to turning out worse than last year.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Perfect bicycle riding weather...

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@RyanMaue — Currently -54°F in Bettles, Alaska -- nearly record cold for both Dec 26th & 27th. About as cold as it can get in December up there.

I like it when it's cold in Alaska. That means it's almost always warm in Texas. Biked 20-25 miles in shorts and short sleeves yesterday and on Christmas. Going for 40+ miles today.

Oh Ryan, he blocked me.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Perfect bicycle riding weather...

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@RyanMaue — Currently -54°F in Bettles, Alaska -- nearly record cold for both Dec 26th & 27th. About as cold as it can get in December up there.

I like it when it's cold in Alaska. That means it's almost always warm in Texas. Biked 20-25 miles in shorts and short sleeves yesterday and on Christmas. Going for 40+ miles today.

Oh Ryan, he blocked me.

Maue seems cool. Why did he block you?

[bubba hotep]

Warm one this morning. I always love it when the low temp is the normal high. It's actually warm across the country today so we are not alone. Where is winter??????

We got off to a fast start but things have totally gone off the rails. At least a lot of these systems are cutting and the majority of the country is enjoying this warmth with us lol

[bubba hotep]

00z GFS has DFW at 70F on January 11th... Sad thing is that is the only time the long range GFS is right in recent winters!!!

[ThunderSleetDreams]

00z GFS has DFW at 70F on January 11th... Sad thing is that is the only time the long range GFS is right in recent winters!!!

and the 06z GFS drops DFW 20 degrees for the high on 1/11.... We all know the long range panels are trash, but look at the NPAC upper air progression from 300-384. Large ridge starts to pump into the Bering and is shifting East.

[bubba hotep]

00z GFS has DFW at 70F on January 11th... Sad thing is that is the only time the long range GFS is right in recent winters!!!

and the 06z GFS drops DFW 20 degrees for the high on 1/11.... We all know the long range panels are trash, but look at the NPAC upper air progression from 300-384. Large ridge starts to pump into the Bering and is shifting East.

The upcoming pattern isn't great or horrible for Texas, it's trash for the EC. Looks like +AO/EPO & -PNA. That keeps us probably near normal temp wise with above normal precipitation for January. The MJO remains incoherent, the SPV appears to be stable and slightly stronger than normal, so things appear kind of stagnant. The IOD continues to lose influence, so maybe we can get a true MJO cycle to shake things up in the coming weeks.

[hriverajr]

Perfect bicycle riding weather...

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@RyanMaue — Currently -54°F in Bettles, Alaska -- nearly record cold for both Dec 26th & 27th. About as cold as it can get in December up there.

I like it when it's cold in Alaska. That means it's almost always warm in Texas. Biked 20-25 miles in shorts and short sleeves yesterday and on Christmas. Going for 40+ miles today.

Oh Ryan, he blocked me.

haha what you do to him?

[hriverajr]

I like it when it's cold in Alaska. That means it's almost always warm in Texas. Biked 20-25 miles in shorts and short sleeves yesterday and on Christmas. Going for 40+ miles today.

Oh Ryan, he blocked me.

Maue seems cool. Why did he block you?

Nah.. he seems to be a bit arrogant.. at least on the internet

[Ntxw]

To me, the pattern will change when the Pacific changes in about 7-10 days. The recent SOI crash signifies some kind of big storm system to track across the US in the late time frame of similar period. MSLP over NA will reverse from being mostly lower pressures to higher pressures. Currently the cold is bottled up in the Arctic circle. At least there is the freezer source, only need a mechanism to open the dam.

The changes will happen first way out there in the open North Pacific starting in the WPO domain (Okhotsk region) then the Gulf Alaska.

[Texas Snowman]

Currently the cold is bottled up in the Arctic circle. At least there is the freezer source, only need a mechanism to open the dam.

I bet we could rig up a certain set of bicycle gears...

[harp]

By the way, the temps in Alaska are brutal. Where does it go? Does it come our way...…? Isn't that typically our source region?

[bubba hotep]

To me, the pattern will change when the Pacific changes in about 7-10 days. The recent SOI crash signifies some kind of big storm system to track across the US in the late time frame of similar period. MSLP over NA will reverse from being mostly lower pressures to higher pressures. Currently the cold is bottled up in the Arctic circle. At least there is the freezer source, only need a mechanism to open the dam.

The changes will happen first way out there in the open North Pacific starting in the WPO domain (Okhotsk region) then the Gulf Alaska.

https://i.imgur.com/xcdtvom.gif

Ensembles are in pretty good agreement that we will see higher heights across the Aleutians as we head towards mid-month. By that time cold will return to our source region and we will see a Western trough in the mean. That gives us a setup that might score something for Texas. The current problem is that there is no accessible cold air to our north. The H5 setup for these next couple of systems would probably produce winter weather threats with colder air.

[bubba hotep]

By the way, the temps in Alaska are brutal. Where does it go? Does it come our way...…? Isn't that typically our source region?

Our source region is typically WCAN more so than Alaska and the pattern that often produces extreme cold in Alaska generates warmth down hear. Over time it looks like WCAN will turn cold opening the door for more significant cold down our way in the long range. This is simplifying things a lot and there are lots of exceptions to these rules of thumb.

[gpsnowman]

By the way, the temps in Alaska are brutal. Where does it go? Does it come our way...…? Isn't that typically our source region?

Our source region is typically WCAN more so than Alaska and the pattern that often produces extreme cold in Alaska generates warmth down hear. Over time it looks like WCAN will turn cold opening the door for more significant cold down our way in the long range. This is simplifying things a lot and there are lots of exceptions to these rules of thumb.

Nothing wrong with a back-loaded winter. In the meantime near normal conditions are on the way for several days starting Sunday. The current warm stretch can suck it. Can I say that??

[bubba hotep]

By the way, the temps in Alaska are brutal. Where does it go? Does it come our way...…? Isn't that typically our source region?

Our source region is typically WCAN more so than Alaska and the pattern that often produces extreme cold in Alaska generates warmth down hear. Over time it looks like WCAN will turn cold opening the door for more significant cold down our way in the long range. This is simplifying things a lot and there are lots of exceptions to these rules of thumb.

Nothing wrong with a back-loaded winter. In the meantime near normal conditions are on the way for several days starting Sunday. The current warm stretch can suck it. Can I say that??

This warm-up was actually pretty enjoyable and I would've been fine with it had it not been over Christmas.

Looks like we will see a brief warm-up end of next week before our next system and then maybe an extended period of normal to below normal temps? My thinking hasn't changed much since earlier in the month but the TPV rotating over towards Alaska wasn't expected. However, it looks like it's stay will be short lived and then we will be moving towards a more favorable pattern. Until the next unexpected wrinkle shows up that will undoubtedly favor warm weather lol

[Astromanía]

So, when was the last snowy winter in texas? maybe we could try to talk about other winters rather than this crap

[bubba hotep]

So, when was the last snowy winter in texas? maybe we could try to talk about other winters rather than this crap

I can't remember jack for DFW but I know that South and Central Texas have cashed in recently