ATL: IDA - Remnants - Discussion

[GCANE]

VDM
1006mB
17.88N 79.96W
Moving straight west and waaaay west of forecast track
Expect some big changes in the upcoming models

[toad strangler]

This is a climo track (for the time of year) coming here if I ever saw one. Another great analog for the track and DATE is Camille. Let's hope Ida doesn't read about her on the way in.

Forecasting has improved since then but this is a good example.
Fast moving Camille missed New Orleans just to the east, and even though she was a cat 5 at landfall most of the flooding was in storm surge risk areas there.

The spirit of my post wasn't about landfall location, it was general track. The forecasted track of Ida very similar to noteworthy cyclones of the recent past. Previously mentioned Carla is a good one too. Even though she went way west into the mid TX coast. Still a great analog. And all "Carla Cradle" births.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

VDM
1006mB
17.88N 79.96W
Moving straight west and waaaay west of forecast track
Expect some big changes in the upcoming models

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/c4YZjsZ3/recon-AF301-0109-A-CYCLONE.png [/url]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/Qt6vBzDh/99L1.png [/url]

I disagree with this. In fact, I think this LLC is dying. The lowest pressure wasn't even recorded there, it was off to the NE quite some ways. The overall convection is clearly moving off to the WNW.

[GCANE]

Haven't seen any small outflow boundaries for a while now.
Looks like the dry air may be lessening.
Still, no convection around the CoC though.

[3090]

VDM
1006mB
17.88N 79.96W
Moving straight west and waaaay west of forecast track
Expect some big changes in the upcoming models

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/c4YZjsZ3/recon-AF301-0109-A-CYCLONE.png [/url]Still trying to get its act together. The center will move around inside of the entire mass of the system. Don’t get caught up in the center at this point as far as the future forecast track goes.

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/Qt6vBzDh/99L1.png [/url]

[GCANE]

VDM
1006mB
17.88N 79.96W
Moving straight west and waaaay west of forecast track
Expect some big changes in the upcoming models

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/c4YZjsZ3/recon-AF301-0109-A-CYCLONE.png [/url]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/Qt6vBzDh/99L1.png [/url]

I disagree with this. In fact, I think this LLC is dying. The lowest pressure wasn't even recorded there, it was off to the NE quite some ways. The overall convection is clearly moving off to the WNW.

IR Sat analysis does indeed have the LL CoC NE of the recon surface low.
It is a little closer to the convection.
Still, pretty far west of the forecast track.

upload images

[StAuggy]

GFS run-to-run and the Rossby Wave keeps digging more south with better structure.
Anti-cyclonic Rossby Wave Brake developing nicely in the models.
That 355K PV ring is ominous.
If this gets Cat 3 or higher, steering will tend more to the east.

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/MTwLMT9K/99L1.png [/url]

I think tolokram mentioned this yesterday that the TABD model came in East if the other models
[url]https://i.postimg.cc/xC7bpkB9/gfs-pv355-K-watl-10.png [/url]tcf bank hours saturday

[GCANE]

Seeing about 1000 CAPE on the west edge of the convection.
Looks like we won't see much convective development tonight.
Needs to shake off more of the dry slot to its west.

[Blinhart]

VDM
1006mB
17.88N 79.96W
Moving straight west and waaaay west of forecast track
Expect some big changes in the upcoming models

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/c4YZjsZ3/recon-AF301-0109-A-CYCLONE.png [/url]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/Qt6vBzDh/99L1.png [/url]

I disagree with this. In fact, I think this LLC is dying. The lowest pressure wasn't even recorded there, it was off to the NE quite some ways. The overall convection is clearly moving off to the WNW.

However kind of hard to argue with RECON, I will follow the professionals, VDM's can change constantly.. There could be multiple LLC rotating around one main one (multiple vortices).

[tailgater]

Recon heading home but we have Caymans Radar and a buoy to watch. Err no buoy near

[Javlin]

VDM
1006mB
17.88N 79.96W
Moving straight west and waaaay west of forecast track
Expect some big changes in the upcoming models

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/c4YZjsZ3/recon-AF301-0109-A-CYCLONE.png [/url]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/Qt6vBzDh/99L1.png [/url]

I disagree with this. In fact, I think this LLC is dying. The lowest pressure wasn't even recorded there, it was off to the NE quite some ways. The overall convection is clearly moving off to the WNW.

IR Sat analysis does indeed have the LL CoC NE of the recon surface low.
It is a little closer to the convection.
Still, pretty far west of the forecast track.

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/cLFs7F0k/2021al09-mpsatwnd-202108262100-swhr.gif [/url]upload images

Even this here GC is not that far off from the GFS 18Z run has a location 18.7'N and 80.0'W at the 6hr mark which goes back the NW+ motion

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 82618&fh=6

[aspen]

Figuring out where the LLC will finally consolidate is always my least favorite part of tracking TCs. Ida continues this trend.

My bet is that we get some better hot towers very early tomorrow around Dmax, and Ida makes landfall as a 50-55 kt TS.

[ThetaE]

Despite the weak LLC, Ida’s outflow and banding structure has greatly improved throughout the day. In the morning, outflow was limited/squished on the W side, but it has been expanding throughout the day. Seems like the trough over there is weakening.

WV tells that story very clearly. Very very large envelope around Ida. As soon as she sets her core upright....

[catskillfire51]

Recon heading home but we have Caymans Radar and a buoy to watch. Err no buoy near

Theres owen roberts international airport currently reading 18mph and Gerrard smith International reading 16mph.

[underthwx]

Figuring out where the LLC will finally consolidate is always my least favorite part of tracking TCs. Ida continues this trend.

My bet is that we get some better hot towers very early tomorrow around Dmax, and Ida makes landfall as a 50-55 kt TS.

Hi Aspen....when you mention landfall...is that a landfall on Cuba?...

[toad strangler]

Despite the weak LLC, Ida’s outflow and banding structure has greatly improved throughout the day. In the morning, outflow was limited/squished on the W side, but it has been expanding throughout the day. Seems like the trough over there is weakening.

WV tells that story very clearly. Very very large envelope around Ida. As soon as she sets her core upright....
https://i.imgur.com/cza3Msk.gif

Large I'll say. I will see high level outflow on the E coast of FL from Ida. Crazy.

[aspen]

Figuring out where the LLC will finally consolidate is always my least favorite part of tracking TCs. Ida continues this trend.

My bet is that we get some better hot towers very early tomorrow around Dmax, and Ida makes landfall as a 50-55 kt TS.

Hi Aspen....when you mention landfall...is that a landfall on Cuba?...

Yeah that’s my guess for Cuba landfall. The NHC will probably be spot-on IMO. As for its CONUS landfall intensity, that’s too far out.

[cycloneye]

The nest two missions will depart at 4 AM NOAA and 4:15 AM Air Force.

FLIGHT THREE - NOAA 43 FLIGHT FOUR - TEAL 72
A. 27/1200Z A. 27/1130Z,1730Z
B. NOAA3 0309A CYCLONE B. AFXXX 0409A CYCLONE
C. 27/0800Z C. 27/0815Z
D. 17.1N 84.1W D. 17.0N 84.0W
E. 27/1000Z TO 27/1400Z E. 27/1100Z TO 27/1730Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

[ThetaE]

Winds increased by about 5-10kt on the NW side between when the recon mission began and ended, including some brief 35kt FL winds. Still pretty weak, but a notable improvement.

[ThetaE]

Despite the weak LLC, Ida’s outflow and banding structure has greatly improved throughout the day. In the morning, outflow was limited/squished on the W side, but it has been expanding throughout the day. Seems like the trough over there is weakening.

WV tells that story very clearly. Very very large envelope around Ida. As soon as she sets her core upright....
https://i.imgur.com/cza3Msk.gif

Large I'll say. I will see high level outflow on the E coast of FL from Ida. Crazy.

All of the Bahamas are shrouded in cirrus!