Texas Winter 2023-2024

[Stratton23]

i almost never take the CFS seriously, its about as accurate as a broken clock, but Im pretty confident the cold will be coming down all the way into texas, its just a question of how cold, with that US continental trough, its going to be a fun ride in january, high confidence in a below normal to well below normal period ahead

[Stratton23]

That 12z EPS is just beautiful, trending even colder and deeper with the US continental trough, its early but I cant help but get at least somewhat excited at the huge potential of this major pattern

[Itryatgolf]

That 12z EPS is just beautiful, trending even colder and deeper with the US continental trough, its early but I cant help but get at least somewhat excited at the huge potential of this major pattern

Don't get too excited unless it's within 10 days on ensembles and 5-7 on op runs. That's my philosophy anyways.

[Cpv17]

That 12z EPS is just beautiful, trending even colder and deeper with the US continental trough, its early but I cant help but get at least somewhat excited at the huge potential of this major pattern

Don't get too excited unless it's within 10 days on ensembles and 5-7 on op runs. That's my philosophy anyways.

There’s upside down V shaped blocking up above around the 300 hour range on the ensembles. Confidence is increasing for me anyway. Don’t know about that SSWE though. Seems like the chatter for that has slowed down.

[orangeblood]

That 12z EPS is just beautiful, trending even colder and deeper with the US continental trough, its early but I cant help but get at least somewhat excited at the huge potential of this major pattern

Really noisy signals from the members and usually a very good sign…a fairly rare January shaping up compared to the past decade

[Itryatgolf]

That 12z EPS is just beautiful, trending even colder and deeper with the US continental trough, its early but I cant help but get at least somewhat excited at the huge potential of this major pattern

Really noisy signals from the members and usually a very good sign…a fairly rare January shaping up compared to the past decade


https://images.weatherbell.com/meteogram/ecmwf-ensemble/KDFW/indiv_snow/1703764800/1703764800-JscebcJv19w.png

Do you have the 500mb ensembles past day 10 you or someone can post? Thanks in advance

[Deshaunrob17]

The Euro had been too cold with temperatures lately. I’ve noticed that the past two weeks

[dpep4]

i almost never take the CFS seriously

I always take chicken fried steak seriously. Long live Grandy's!

[Cpv17]

i almost never take the CFS seriously

I always take chicken fried steak seriously. Long live Grandy's!

Oh boy, don’t even get me started on CFS. I could start a thread on that alone. The food, not the model lol

[wxman57]

Looking at the 500mb height/vorticity/wind charts for the EC, GFS, and CMC on Tropical Tidbits, they all have a different solution at day 10. They really start diverging around 120 hrs. GFS is way faster with the 500mb trof/low.

[rwfromkansas]

Oh man, now I am thinking of Babe's CFS. Lol.

Regarding weather, it's nice to have a chill in the air even if it's not freezing or snowing.

[cstrunk]

Finally got Imgur to work. Here's a snapshot of the bit of snow we had in Iowa Tuesday. Enjoy - hope to see some in Texas in January!



https://i.imgur.com/PQ6zb3R.mp4

[Tireman4]

Looking at the 500mb height/vorticity/wind charts for the EC, GFS, and CMC on Tropical Tidbits, they all have a different solution at day 10. They really start diverging around 120 hrs. GFS is way faster with the 500mb trof/low.

Winter is over!

[Brent]

Looking at the 500mb height/vorticity/wind charts for the EC, GFS, and CMC on Tropical Tidbits, they all have a different solution at day 10. They really start diverging around 120 hrs. GFS is way faster with the 500mb trof/low.

Winter is over!

That assumes it started

[Iceresistance]

Tiny snowflakes here! Okay for like 2 minutes

I had snow falling on the way to Missouri in Arkansas, for nearly an hour.

[Cpv17]

I still don’t see a strong signal for cold down here on the ensembles (even though the blocking looks pretty good) but they do seem to be loading up our source region in Canada. I see us staying slightly below average over the next couple weeks but I don’t see anything crazy yet. You folks in NTX and OK could get some action. Of course this could all change since it’s far out but I’m just glad at least it looks like it’s gonna start raining down here more. I’m still in a level 2 drought. Hopefully, at least the rain pans out.

[Cpv17]

Well I was just on Twitter and saw some EC guys saying that things actually look good for us here in Texas and I also just saw a video on the TWC app talking about the SSW and the polar vortex returning in January, so at least it’s being talked about on the mainstream now. There has been some talk on Twitter the past couple days saying that the SSW doesn’t look as promising anymore though. Hopefully it pans out. I’m not sold on that happening though.

[Gotwood]

Well I was just on Twitter and saw some EC guys saying that things actually look good for us here in Texas and I also just saw a video on the TWC app talking about the SSW and the polar vortex returning in January, so at least it’s being talked about on the mainstream now. There has been some talk on Twitter the past couple days saying that the SSW doesn’t look as promising anymore though. Hopefully it pans out. I’m not sold on that happening though.

I’m the same we have battered winter fan syndrome lol. I’ll believe it when I see it.

[Stratton23]

We dont need that SSWE even if it doesnt effect us, this big continental US trough combined with the Blocking over alaska and greenland will be more than enough to bring down some very cold air, ensembles are trending colder every run, and i expect this to continue, I see an extended period of below normal to at times well below normal temps and above normal precipitation

[Cpv17]

Well I was just on Twitter and saw some EC guys saying that things actually look good for us here in Texas and I also just saw a video on the TWC app talking about the SSW and the polar vortex returning in January, so at least it’s being talked about on the mainstream now. There has been some talk on Twitter the past couple days saying that the SSW doesn’t look as promising anymore though. Hopefully it pans out. I’m not sold on that happening though.

I’m the same we have battered winter fan syndrome lol. I’ll believe it when I see it.

Lol right? It does seem like the chances for that SSWE are slowly fading away from what I’m hearing. Or at least much more uncertain.