Tropical Storm Chris

[shaggy]

I personally believe the current track will be shifted slightly northward and eastward in the Gulf of Mexico due to the evolution of heights (ridging) to the north of Chris and troughing synoptics evolving in the mid-central United States now.

Link

Right now, there is a slightly amplifying trough in the mid-central U.S., which may be progged to erode the mid-level to low-level ridging over the east-central U.S. (Ohio Valley) and southeast United States. Given the synoptics, it may be rather difficult for Chris to get even as far west as southeast to south-central Texas. I see an east-central to central (not far western) Gulf and southern/southeast Florida or middle Keys impact as more likely.

OR it could hit hispaniola(lets hope not) and be destroyed just like debby back in 2000?...

[MiamiensisWx]

This confirms my earlier thoughts that higher flight-level winds would be found further in closer to the deepest convection with the 64KT confirmed at flight levels.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I personally believe the current track will be shifted slightly northward and eastward in the Gulf of Mexico due to the evolution of heights (ridging) to the north of Chris and troughing synoptics evolving in the mid-central United States now.

Link

Right now, there is a slightly amplifying trough in the mid-central U.S., which may be progged to erode the mid-level to low-level ridging over the east-central U.S. (Ohio Valley) and southeast United States. Given the synoptics, it may be rather difficult for Chris to get even as far west as southeast to south-central Texas. I see an east-central to central (not far western) Gulf and southern/southeast Florida or middle Keys impact as more likely.

this map is for today, this will not be what is going on 5-7 days from now.

[StormsAhead]

SXXX50 KNHC 012059
AF303 0103A CHRIS HDOB 26 KNHC
2047. 1808N 06039W 00461 0014 146 042 210 202 044 00496 0000000000
2048 1809N 06038W 00453 0015 144 041 210 210 042 00488 0000000000
2048. 1810N 06037W 00457 0015 148 042 210 208 043 00493 0000000000
2049 1811N 06035W 00456 0017 148 042 218 190 043 00493 0000000000
2049. 1812N 06034W 00413 0025 147 041 214 214 043 00451 0000000000
2050 1813N 06033W 00393 0028 149 037 216 216 038 00431 0000000000
2050. 1815N 06032W 00398 0029 147 037 216 216 037 00437 0000000000
2051 1816N 06031W 00397 0031 147 036 218 216 037 00438 0000000000
2051. 1817N 06029W 00396 0032 146 035 218 218 036 00439 0000000000
2052 1818N 06028W 00398 0033 145 034 220 220 035 00442 0000000000
2052. 1819N 06027W 00395 0034 147 035 220 216 037 00440 0000000000
2053 1820N 06026W 00396 0036 144 035 220 220 035 00442 0000000000
2053. 1821N 06025W 00396 0037 144 037 220 218 038 00443 0000000000
2054 1822N 06024W 00396 0038 145 037 220 216 038 00445 0000000000
2054. 1823N 06022W 00397 0039 143 036 220 218 037 00447 0000000000
2055 1824N 06021W 00397 0039 144 038 220 220 039 00447 0000000000
2055. 1825N 06020W 00394 0040 142 039 220 220 040 00444 0000000000
2056 1827N 06019W 00398 0041 137 035 216 216 037 00450 0000000000
2056. 1828N 06018W 00394 0043 136 039 218 218 039 00448 0000000000
2057 1829N 06016W 00400 0041 136 035 212 212 037 00455 0000000000

[MiamiensisWx]

OR it could hit hispaniola(lets hope not) and be destroyed just like debby back in 2000?...

The synoptics playing out don't support that heavily, in my opinion.

[max]

Please tell me we aren't watching a rapid strengthing like Hurricane Wilma or quicker. I hope not. I don't think it will but just saying.

It better not.

Its practicly impossible to get strengthening faster than wilma's record for most rapid strengthening in the world...but steady-quick strengthening is certainly not out of the question

Thank god its impossible for strengthing to happen quicker than Hurricane Wilma but I hope it doesn't match it or close.

[WindRunner]

[max]

Why didn't the NHC wait for RECON? That is odd, unless they don't wish to alarm people....if he is booming we should know! He looks OK on sat pics...

Agreed!

[Extremeweatherguy]

considering there was just a 63 knot FL wind, I would assume that this will be upgraded further at 8pm.

[MiamiensisWx]

this map is for today, this will not be what is going on 5-7 days from now.

By making observations on synoptics and factors on current maps, it can be possible to support an idea on how the synoptics may play out and how it may affect the track/intensity of Chris. Nothing is certain, but that doesn't mean my thoughts and current maps should be discounted.

By the way, please stop trying so hard to support a far western Gulf landfall.

[fci]

cant wait till next year when we can finally get past the "rita" and "katrina" references......This storm is also tracking like a dozen other storms and it may never even get close to the track or intensity of rita!

I think it will take a LONG time before Rita and, especially; Katrina references subside.

i dont want to come across as downplaying their destruction but to compare apples to oranges is getting a bit tiresome.If it was september then the ridge setup would be different and we would be getting "this is just like floyd" post!..

Chris is going to make a name for himself and thats what people need to focus on not what he reminds them of!

I don't want to stray too far from Chris but it is totally normal to reference prior storms.
They are our points of reference.
Like the "so in so looks like" or "this game reminds me of" etc....

It is real hard to discuss a storm or even a situation without comparing it to something else one has experienced!

Then, you end up using the current situation as a refrence for future situations.

It's just human nature!

fci steps off of soapbox......

[kevin]

It may be human nature but personification of storms is kind of silly and leads to false conclusions.

[drezee]

086
WTNT63 KNHC 012106
TCUAT3
TROPICAL STORM CHRIS TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006
505 PM AST TUE AUG 01 2006

BASED ON A RECENT REPORT FROM THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT...THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS IN CHRIS HAVE INCREASED TO
NEAR 60 MPH. A SPECIAL ADVISORY WILL BE RELEASED SHORTLY...
PRIMARILY TO MODIFY THE INITIAL AND FORECAST INTENSITY. NO CHANGES
IN WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE REQUIRED AT THIS TIME.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/KNABB

[drezee]

086
WTNT63 KNHC 012106
TCUAT3
TROPICAL STORM CHRIS TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006
505 PM AST TUE AUG 01 2006

BASED ON A RECENT REPORT FROM THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT...THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS IN CHRIS HAVE INCREASED TO
NEAR 60 MPH. A SPECIAL ADVISORY WILL BE RELEASED SHORTLY...
PRIMARILY TO MODIFY THE INITIAL AND FORECAST INTENSITY. NO CHANGES
IN WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE REQUIRED AT THIS TIME.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/KNABB

[max]

Wow that was quick!

[Canelaw99]

See - if the NHC had listened to us they wouldn't have had to issue this special advisory We've been telling them the 45mph was too low

[El Nino]

So, more than 50 knots !

Talking about unfavourable environment hmmmm ?

[Extremeweatherguy]

this map is for today, this will not be what is going on 5-7 days from now.

By making observations on synoptics and factors on current maps, it can be possible to support an idea on how the synoptics may play out and how it may affect the track/intensity of Chris. Nothing is certain, but that doesn't mean my thoughts and current maps should be discounted.

By the way, please stop trying so hard to support a far western Gulf landfall.

stop trying to support a far western Gulf landfall? what? I have been worried about that possibility, not hoping or wishing or trying to support it. If anything, it seems like you are trying to support a FL landfall.

your exact quote:

I see an east-central to central (not far western) Gulf and southern/southeast Florida or middle Keys impact as more likely.

[cycloneye]

086
WTNT63 KNHC 012106
TCUAT3
TROPICAL STORM CHRIS TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006
505 PM AST TUE AUG 01 2006

BASED ON A RECENT REPORT FROM THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT...THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS IN CHRIS HAVE INCREASED TO
NEAR 60 MPH. A SPECIAL ADVISORY WILL BE RELEASED SHORTLY...
PRIMARILY TO MODIFY THE INITIAL AND FORECAST INTENSITY. NO CHANGES
IN WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE REQUIRED AT THIS TIME.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/KNABB

[HurricaneHunter914]

Wow Chris is now almost at the borderline of becoming a Hurricane.