INVEST 91L -Discussions,Analysis and Imagery

[Ed Mahmoud]

A 25 mph TD dropping 3 or 5 inches of rain in 24 to 36 hours and then moving out would do wonders for my orange trees and lawn. This 100ºF (38ºC) temps are a little much for me.

[Extremeweatherguy]

21 knot wnd at flight level on last data message.

how come none of this is being posting in our recon thread?

[Stormcenter]

This thing needs to hurry... it's running out of time.

I have to disagree. It still has a lot of time.

[Dave C]

Bouy to the north starting to show pressure fall
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42001

[Ed Mahmoud]

21 knot wnd at flight level on last data message.

how come none of this is being posting in our recon thread?

URNT11 KNHC 142109
97779 21094 30241 89718 02400 16021 26259 /0007
41520
RMK AF305 01EEA INVEST OB 17

[Ed Mahmoud]

21 knot wnd at flight level on last data message.

how come none of this is being posting in our recon thread?

URNT11 KNHC 142109
97779 21094 30241 89718 02400 16021 26259 /0007
41520
RMK AF305 01EEA INVEST OB 17

Or are you saying I posted this in the wrong thread. Sorry if that was out of line.

[Aric Dunn]

its taking to much time.. everyone hour it does not become better organized gives it a smaller chance of becoming anything but a minimal TS.

I disagree--for once, Aric. The act of reforming to the northeast gives it much more time and allows for greater pressure falls and more ideal strengthening conditions. Already reformation has given it an extra 12 hours--it was supposed to make landfall on Wednesday night--now the NAM is pushing it to Thursday morning--the next run may make it early Thursday afternoon, and if reformation continues, it may not make landfall until Thursday night or even Friday morning. That's possibly an extra 24 hours of ideal strengthening conditions--the kind that could result in an additional 1 mb pressure fall/hr. Right now--the 18Z NAM is progging it for landfall on Thursday morning as a 984 mb system. If that was delayed further by 12-24 hours, we could be looking at anywhere from a 960-975 mb system. Category 3 territory! So this is very bad. I'm certainly not calling for it, but Rita was just to the north of this area, and under the most ideal conditions, it's pressure was falling at its peak at 7 mb/hour. Same with Charlie. It's just worth keeping in mind

everything is possible.. but sometimes systems just dont get there act together.. tonight will be a good chance for it. but if by morning it has not changed or is only slightly better organized than i would say no to a hurricane

[Ed Mahmoud]

21 knot wnd at flight level on last data message.

how come none of this is being posting in our recon thread?


URNT11 KNHC 142109
97779 21094 30241 89718 02400 16021 26259 /0007
41520
RMK AF305 01EEA INVEST OB 17

Or are you saying I posted this in the wrong thread. Sorry if that was out of line.

If this is ok to mention, just saw 28 knot wind at flight level...

[Stratosphere747]

Meh...

Unless something changes, I don't see this having a landfall as late as Friday, which it would need to attain cane status. Of course Claudette surprised many of us down this way. Always reasons to keep a wary eye on it.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Or are you saying I posted this in the wrong thread. Sorry if that was out of line.

No I wasn't yelling at you, I was just wondering what happened to the recon updates that we were getting in the recon thread up until a half hour ago.

update: NVM, they just restarted.

[RL3AO]

26 kt FL

[Starburst]

Found 29 Kts

[Extremeweatherguy]

32mph FL winds were reported by Recon near 24.2N, 89.5W.

Might have an even higher report now according to Starburst of 29 knots (about 33mph or so).

[lrak]

What about the new convection coming off the peninsula? Is that indicative of being close to a LLC, like the blob to the North?

[Brent]

Looks like advisories could start at anytime... apparently according to the TWO the circulation wasn't completely closed, if it can't get closed with THAT satellite appearance I'll be surprised.

[Aric Dunn]

I think it was closed but just not very well defined

there are west winds
I saw them in the obs

[Stratosphere747]

With recon out there and conditions being so close, a STS would not be surprising. Not sure if they would do immediate watches/warnings or wait till 10.

[cycloneye]

With recon out there and conditions being so close, a STS would not be surprising. Not sure if they would do immediate watches/warnings or wait till 10.

Possible the Special Tropical Disturbance Statement.

[rainman31]

It looks to be moving more northwest, but the projected path on the homepage shows it moving into northern mexico.

[lrak]

I still see a good LLC and 23N 90W, that blob coming off Mexico may rap around it tonight and the other blob in the central gulf will dissipate?