ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[ConvergenceZone]

What time do you think it will get over the gulf?

I think within the next 3 hours. I also think it will be below cat4 if current weaking keeps up.

Yea, it's weakened for sure in the last hour. In fact, last frame of satellite shows that it's harder and harder to make out the eye. I'm thinking it's probably around 140 mph, but it should ramp up again to a low cat 5 within the next 15 hours or so....

[Derek Ortt]

I'm located in Baton Rouge (LSU). Not a hurricane expert by any means. What's it looking like for me? Should I get the hell out of dodge? Or should I be pretty safe here?

you are far enough northeast that you shouldnt sustain heavy damage. It will be plenty windy though.
Myself, not so lucky. possibly 90-100 mph winds here in Lafayette I reckon. We are ready for it though.

If the track is exactly like the NHC has it, i.e. east side of Vermillion Bay heading NW you are right, but the slightest deviation to the right, which is entirely possible and Baton Rouge would get hit harder than Lafayette. The worst it could get for BR would be the 90-100 mph gusts that have already been mentioned. I know that is a lot, but it won't be totally devastating and most structures can withstand that kind of wind. Just get prepared for lots of downed trees, power lines, shingles ripped off, flooding etc. that you would normally expect with this kind of weather. I lived through hurricane Charley here in Orlando and we had 105 mph wind gusts. It was bad and it seemed like our roof could go at any point but we survived and Orlando was up and running within a week or two. Just lots of headaches related to no power and debris removal.

How are structures built in BR? Do they have hurricane straps?

100 mph winds wind gusts are equivalent to EF1 tornadoes. That will cause significant damage to structures

[carversteve]

Can some post a map to show where the center is right now..TY! Or some sort of visual.

Sure I just posted one, here it is again.

Thank you!! At his speed,not to far off from being over water again!

[6SpeedTA95]

What time do you think it will get over the gulf?

I think within the next 3 hours. I also think it will be below cat4 if current weaking keeps up.

Should be within the next 3 hours I think.

How much weakening has the system undergone in recent hours?

[jinftl]

Wow..Gustav is about to get back over water....making him officially in the GoM and building a Cat 4 surge pushing north in the Gulf.

Can some post a map to show where the center is right now..TY! Or some sort of visual.

Sure I just posted one, here it is again.

[teal61]

18z GFS, ukmet, nogaps, gfdl and hwrf have all shifted east to NO..not good

Huh ?

HWRF.......
http://www.coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/extreme/ ... _anim.html\\

GFDL....

http://www.coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/extreme/ ... _anim.html

[soonertwister]

The cone of uncertainty is not infallible. 48 hrs before Katrina made landfall it wasn't even in SE La.

The cone was over NOLA continuously from 5 am Friday, August 26 until the storm passed NOLA. Care to back up your statements with anything remotely resembling facts?

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/KA ... hics.shtml

[seeker6542]

What time do you think it will get over the gulf?

I think within the next 3 hours. I also think it will be below cat4 if current weaking keeps up.

I agree with the gulf waters time, but not with the weakening. I don't think that area of Cuba will cause it too loose that much intensity.

The eye should be out over water within the hour.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-wv.html

[HurricaneHunter914]

I don't think Gustav is a cat-4 at the moment, but he will be back over water soon and will probably quickly intensify. I pray that NO get's the weakest of Gustav (or no Gustav at all). This is the last thing they need.

[6SpeedTA95]

18z GFS, ukmet, nogaps, gfdl and hwrf have all shifted east to NO..not good

Huh ?

HWRF.......
http://www.coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/extreme/ ... _anim.html\\

GFDL....

http://www.coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/extreme/ ... _anim.html

146 kts at landfall? Good lord I hope that is overdone.

[tallywx]

18z GFS, ukmet, nogaps, gfdl and hwrf have all shifted east to NO..not good

Huh ?

HWRF.......
http://www.coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/extreme/ ... _anim.html\\

GFDL....

http://www.coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/extreme/ ... _anim.html

Yeah, that's not even close to being "to NO."

[mvtrucking]

[/quote]

18Z GFDL is not over New Orleans, it's over Lafayette/Vermilion Bay, right on NHC track. UKMET has been bad all along with Gustav. GFS has been all over the place, too. HWRF has been terrible, but it's not taking Gustav to New Orleans either. Even the generally terrible NOGAPS says Vermilion bay.[/quote]


Any new thoughts on the storm you would care to share this evening Wxman57? Has your final LF remained basically the same? Thanks.

[6SpeedTA95]

GFDL looks much more reasonable at 107kts.

[tolakram]

Closer view

[6SpeedTA95]

18Z GFDL is not over New Orleans, it's over Lafayette/Vermilion Bay, right on NHC track. UKMET has been bad all along with Gustav. GFS has been all over the place, too. HWRF has been terrible, but it's not taking Gustav to New Orleans either. Even the generally terrible NOGAPS says Vermilion bay.[/quote]


Any new thoughts on the storm you would care to share this evening Wxman57? Has your final LF remained basically the same? Thanks.[/quote]
I thought nogaps was nothing more than a statistcal model?

[tallywx]

Isn't the distance from Havana, Cuba to the center about the distance that New Orleans would be from the center if it follows the NHC track? If that's the case...well, all Havana is getting is 55 mph gusts. New Orleans can survive that.

[pablolopez26]

Floater: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/float2.html

Its amazing to note that Gustav started with this little cloud mass.

Just had to post this.

[Weather Watcher]

Where is the eye?

[tolakram]

Isn't the distance from Havana, Cuba to the center about the distance that New Orleans would be from the center if it follows the NHC track? If that's the case...well, all Havana is getting is 55 mph gusts. New Orleans can survive that.

Wind is not the issue, never has been.

[carversteve]

18z GFS, ukmet, nogaps, gfdl and hwrf have all shifted east to NO..not good

Huh ?

HWRF.......
http://www.coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/extreme/ ... _anim.html\\

GFDL....

http://www.coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/extreme/ ... _anim.html

146 kts at landfall? Good lord I hope that is overdone.

What is 146 kts in mph..i love weather, but am challenged beyond that!