Texas Winter 2014-2015

[dhweather]

From: National Weather Service, Fort Worth
Date: Monday, 2 March 2015 13:33 CST



Tom Bradshaw/Mark Fox

Where did that come from?

Skywarn Team website


http://wx5fwd.org/NWSUpdate

[downsouthman1]

From: National Weather Service, Fort Worth
Date: Monday, 2 March 2015 13:33 CST



Tom Bradshaw/Mark Fox

Where did that come from?

Skywarn Team website


http://wx5fwd.org/NWSUpdate

Thanks. Not that I didn't believe. It's just I couldn't find that anywhere & it was driving me nuts LOL.

[dhweather]

I have a gut feeling this is not going to be much, if anything, in Heath.

[Texas Snowman]

Has climbed to 41 in Denison. First time out of the 30s since middle of last week.

[Portastorm]

possibly some ice accumulations on power lines - will develop in these areas by Wednesday evening/night. Some of these areas in Central Texas may experience their most significant winter weather events of the season.

Exactly what I'm thinking.

As am I. If the 12z GFS Skew-T progs are close, it looks like Austin would transition to sleet some time early Thursday morning and lasting until around lunch. Prior to that, possibly as much as a quarter of an inch of freezing rain. Area bridges/elevated roadways/and some roads would be an ice rink.

[downsouthman1]

I have a gut feeling this is not going to be much, if anything, in Heath.

Well NWS is now calling this a more southerly system, which is what the GFS has been showing since last week.

[dhweather]

Has climbed to 41 in Denison. First time out of the 30s since middle of last week.

We just hit 40 in Heath, first time since last Wednesday.

[downsouthman1]

possibly some ice accumulations on power lines - will develop in these areas by Wednesday evening/night. Some of these areas in Central Texas may experience their most significant winter weather events of the season.

Exactly what I'm thinking.

As am I. If the 12z GFS Skew-T progs are close, it looks like Austin would transition to sleet some time early Thursday morning and lasting until around lunch. Prior to that, possibly as much as a quarter of an inch of freezing rain. Area bridges/elevated roadways/and some roads would be an ice rink.

No one wants to see 0.25" ice accumulation anywhere. I don't wish that on anyone.

[SouthernMet]

I have a gut feeling this is not going to be much, if anything, in Heath.

Well NWS is now calling this a more southerly system, which is what the GFS has been showing since last week.

I'm thinking if anything happens in north texas it won't be nearly as significant as the ice potential for FWD's southern counties.

[Portastorm]

A snippet from Bob Rose, LCRA's meteorologist, and his recently updated (midday Monday) blog:

I am becoming quite concerned about the development of winter weather Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Unlike the last two recent winter weather events that contained only light precipitation, this event is forecast to involve heavier precipitation due to the efficient overrunning pattern in place. Some forecast data is calling for precipitation totals of at least a half inch during this period. Should this occur as currently forecast, it will result in large amounts of sleet, freezing rain and snow Wednesday night till about midday Thursday. This amount of precipitation has the potential to cause serious travel problems across the area Thursday morning. As of now, the threat for wintery precipitation looks to occur generally along and north of a line stretching from around Brenham to La Grange to San Antonio to Uvalde. Stay tuned for more updates on this winter weather threat over the next couple of days.

[weatherdude1108]

:uarrow:

It's unfortunate that my local NWS office doesn't have the foresight to be proactive like NWS Fort Worth is on a regular basis. Given the potential of the storm down here, you'd think the public would be alerted to the threat ... but ... no, apparently that's asking too much.

Yeah! I don't understand why they tend to react instead of proact. They need to address it for a worst-case scenario impact IMO so people can plan and act accordingly. I know they jump the gun sometimes with these events, frozen or otherwise. Maybe that is why they wait until the last hour for a confident forecast(?). I agree it is frustrating, especially when you need to travel or have plans!

[dhweather]

I have a gut feeling this is not going to be much, if anything, in Heath.

Well NWS is now calling this a more southerly system, which is what the GFS has been showing since last week.

The RGEM has done very well with this pattern and the last 3 systems, tonight or tomorrow we will be in striking range of it and see what it says. The GFS has had the DFW area getting QPF for several runs, the NAM has not. It varies, as usual, from model to model. If it comes in positively tilted, we may not see anything at all.

[weatherdude1108]

A snippet from Bob Rose, LCRA's meteorologist, and his recently updated (midday Monday) blog:

I am becoming quite concerned about the development of winter weather Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Unlike the last two recent winter weather events that contained only light precipitation, this event is forecast to involve heavier precipitation due to the efficient overrunning pattern in place. Some forecast data is calling for precipitation totals of at least a half inch during this period. Should this occur as currently forecast, it will result in large amounts of sleet, freezing rain and snow Wednesday night till about midday Thursday. This amount of precipitation has the potential to cause serious travel problems across the area Thursday morning. As of now, the threat for wintery precipitation looks to occur generally along and north of a line stretching from around Brenham to La Grange to San Antonio to Uvalde. Stay tuned for more updates on this winter weather threat over the next couple of days.

Hmmm.
The "quite concerned" words always concern me from any meteorological discussion I read. A half-inch is significant enough to break some tree limbs and down some power lines. Ice day number 2 may be in the works.

[downsouthman1]

A snippet from Bob Rose, LCRA's meteorologist, and his recently updated (midday Monday) blog:

I am becoming quite concerned about the development of winter weather Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Unlike the last two recent winter weather events that contained only light precipitation, this event is forecast to involve heavier precipitation due to the efficient overrunning pattern in place. Some forecast data is calling for precipitation totals of at least a half inch during this period. Should this occur as currently forecast, it will result in large amounts of sleet, freezing rain and snow Wednesday night till about midday Thursday. This amount of precipitation has the potential to cause serious travel problems across the area Thursday morning. As of now, the threat for wintery precipitation looks to occur generally along and north of a line stretching from around Brenham to La Grange to San Antonio to Uvalde. Stay tuned for more updates on this winter weather threat over the next couple of days.

Hmmm.
The "quite concerned" words always concern me from any meteorological discussion I read. A half-inch is significant enough to break some tree limbs and down some power lines. Ice day number 2 may be in the works.

It said 0.5" precip total. It didn't say that that would all be FRZR.

[TXdaddy217]

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... PTHgLA3PIU

The latest forecast for the San Angelo/Abilene area. Predicts the dreaded THUNDERSLEET on Wednesday.

[weatherdude1108]

A snippet from Bob Rose, LCRA's meteorologist, and his recently updated (midday Monday) blog:

I am becoming quite concerned about the development of winter weather Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Unlike the last two recent winter weather events that contained only light precipitation, this event is forecast to involve heavier precipitation due to the efficient overrunning pattern in place. Some forecast data is calling for precipitation totals of at least a half inch during this period. Should this occur as currently forecast, it will result in large amounts of sleet, freezing rain and snow Wednesday night till about midday Thursday. This amount of precipitation has the potential to cause serious travel problems across the area Thursday morning. As of now, the threat for wintery precipitation looks to occur generally along and north of a line stretching from around Brenham to La Grange to San Antonio to Uvalde. Stay tuned for more updates on this winter weather threat over the next couple of days.

Hmmm.
The "quite concerned" words always concern me from any meteorological discussion I read. A half-inch is significant enough to break some tree limbs and down some power lines. Ice day number 2 may be in the works.

It said 0.5" precip total. It didn't say that that would all be FRZR.

Oh, ok. I misread that. Sorry. I must have "jumped the gun."

[Portastorm]

What folks in Central, West Central, and South Central Texas need to realize -- and Bob touched on this in his blog -- this system is much more dynamic than any other which has hit us this winter season. It's the same system which spurred severe storms in Southern California and is helping copious amounts of snow to fall on Flagstaff, Arizona. The "energy" from this system will likely be further south and that is why concern should be growing for our part of the state.

At a minimum, the 12z GFS showed .22" of FREEZING rain for Austin. That's more than enough to create havoc here.

[downsouthman1]

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?site=sjt&zmx=1&zmy=1&map.x=226&map.y=89#.VPTHgLA3PIU

The latest forecast for the San Angelo/Abilene area. Predicts the dreaded THUNDERSLEET on Wednesday.

I don't see that.

[downsouthman1]

What folks in Central, West Central, and South Central Texas need to realize -- and Bob touched on this in his blog -- this system is much more dynamic than any other which has hit us this winter season. It's the same system which spurred severe storms in Southern California and is helping copious amounts of snow to fall on Flagstaff, Arizona. The "energy" from this system will likely be further south and that is why concern should be growing for our part of the state.

At a minimum, the 12z GFS showed .22" of FREEZING rain for Austin. That's more than enough to create havoc here.

That's a lot. I hope that's wrong or more of that changes to snow or even sleet.

Edit: But to go along with what you said, I know that any system powerful enough to cause temps that have been in the 30s everyday for almost 1 week to become over 70 degrees for 1 day prior to the winter storm, must be very dynamic.

[srainhoutx]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
250 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

HOUSTON-TRINITY-MADISON-WALKER-SAN JACINTO-POLK-BURLESON-BRAZOS-
WASHINGTON-GRIMES-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CROCKETT...TRINITY...GROVETON...
MADISONVILLE...HUNTSVILLE...SHEPHERD...COLDSPRING...LIVINGSTON...
CORRIGAN...ONALASKA...CALDWELL...LAKE SOMERVILLE...
COLLEGE STATION...BRYAN...BRENHAM...NAVASOTA
250 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

...WINTER WEATHER POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY
WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES BEHIND IT DUE TO A VERY COLD AIRMASS.
TEMPERATURES MAY REACH AND THEN DROP BELOW FREEZING DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DURING
THIS TIME DUE TO LIFT FROM THE COLD FRONT AND A STRONG JET STREAM.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ENDING LATER THURSDAY MORNING. BEFORE IT
ENDS...SOME PRECIPITATION MAY FALL WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES
RESULTING IN A MIX OF RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN. AS THE COLD AIR GETS
DEEPER...THE RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN MAY TRANSITION INTO A MIX OF
SLEET. RIGHT NOW THE BEST TIME FOR FROZEN PRECIPITATION WILL BE
FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM THURSDAY MAINLY FROM A COLLEGE STATION TO A
LIVINGSTON LINE. AREAS FROM MADISONVILLE TO CROCKETT MAY HAVE A
HIGHER CHANCE OF A WINTTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION SINCE TEMPERATURES
MAY FALL BELOW FREEZING SOONER.

OVERALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 TENTHS OF AN
INCH. ICE AND SLEET AMOUNTS WILL BE DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE SINCE
THERE ARE TIMING ISSUES WITH HOW LONG THE AREA WILL BE BELOW
FREEZING. AT THIS TIME ICE AND SLEET AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 1
TENTH OF AN INCH. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. OVERALL THE MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE
ICING OF ELEVATED SURFACES SUCH AS BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. A TENTH
OF AN INCH OF ICE COULD STILL MAKE FOR HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS
ON ROADS.