Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[gofrogs2]

Yes what r u talking aobut i swear it showed tons of rains but mid fortys.

[gofrogs2]

Why what is it shwoing to you guys.

[Ntxw]

Why what is it shwoing to you guys.

If that were true, easily 3-5 inches of snow\sleet in DFW at 5:1 ratio (typical lowest snow ratio) BTW we are referring to next Weds-Thurs time frame, not this week. Multiple Models have hinted at a potential storm\cold threat for that time frame.

[Ntxw]

:uarrow: Looks very similar to a 'Pattern Changer' ( a bit different track ) in December to me...

Don't mess with our heads Srainhoutx! You're feeding the ever growing frenzy that's barely been fed! That's a blockbuster you're comparing to

[gofrogs2]

How arent temps in the fortys.

[Ntxw]

How arent temps in the fortys.

850mb 0c (freezing) line (blue line) is well south of the metroplex heading into the northern sections of central and S\E Texas. That's the interpretation of this run.

[DFW Stormwatcher]

Why taken varbatim it shows a rain with temps 10 - 12 degrees above freezing he doesnt know what hes talking about.

eeek, I know it's a joke but he's always been pretty accurate, not to mention he's a professional. I'm sure I just took that the wrong way, I know you've been on the board for awhile. Always in for a good snowstorm:) This is already a legendary winter, another snow dump would be more than any of us could've hoped for

[Nederlander]

Look at the '0' line dude.. That's the mark for freezing weather

[Texas Snowman]

If that verifies, DFW will seriously break the seasonal snowfall record.

If not shatter it...

[srainhoutx]

:uarrow: Looks very similar to a 'Pattern Changer' ( a bit different track ) in December to me...

Don't mess with our heads Srainhoutx! You're feeding the ever growing frenzy that's barely been fed! That's a blockbuster you're comparing to

Let's see what the RECON data shows tonight. Got to use all the 'tools in the toolbox'...


http://wxweb.meteostar.com/models/noaap ... UMBLOOP=10

[gofrogs2]

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sampl ... ?text=KFTW

tell me iam not crazy.

[Ntxw]

We should take it as a grain of salt this far out. Key to getting a correct forecast this far out is to look at the trends and patterns and the way it sets up. For days, the major global models and ensembles have all pointed a finger in a colder\snowier direction. Run to run details aren't to be taken heavily.

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sampl ... ?text=KFTW

tell me iam not crazy.

You shouldn't pay attention to that too much. It shifts run per run. There's a lot more to making snow/sleet than is it cold enough at the surface. The model has a climatology input to it and will get into more details as we shift closer, usually within 3-4 days out.

[Texas Snowman]

We should take it as a grain of salt this far out. Key to getting a correct forecast this far out is to look at the trends and patterns and the way it sets up. For days, the major global models and ensembles have all pointed a finger in a colder\snowier direction. Run to run details aren't to be taken heavily.

True, but we did see model support for "Snowmageddon" several days out.

And wasn't the Christmas Eve blizzard forecast by models several days in advance. I remember OUN NWS being particularly bullish on that event...Fort Worth, not so much.

[Nederlander]

I'm happy for dallas and all.. But it really sucks when its 33 degrees and pouring rain here in s/e tx.. Its very depressing watching everyone else get snow and us not.. We've had three hurricanes and a tropical storm in 5 years and we deserve some snow.. But mother nature doesn't work that way I guess.. Lights out for wintry precip in s/e TX..

[iorange55]

We should take it as a grain of salt this far out. Key to getting a correct forecast this far out is to look at the trends and patterns and the way it sets up. For days, the major global models and ensembles have all pointed a finger in a colder\snowier direction. Run to run details aren't to be taken heavily.

Nice icon

[Nederlander]

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KFTW

tell me iam not crazy.

Check out the 25th-26th time frame

[srainhoutx]

00Z NAM @ 54 hours...

[txagwxman]

I'm happy for dallas and all.. But it really sucks when its 33 degrees and pouring rain here in s/e tx.. Its very depressing watching everyone else get snow and us not.. We've had three hurricanes and a tropical storm in 5 years and we deserve some snow.. But mother nature doesn't work that way I guess.. Lights out for wintry precip in s/e TX..

At least you have gotten snow...NW side of Houston all we had is 1/2" in the last 6 years. Victoria got 14" in 2004, Downtown Houston got 2" last December. Pearland got 3-4" in 2004 and Dec 2009.

As for DFW next week it is still 7+ days away, so don't hang ur hat on that forecast yet. All I know is I like the pattern. If the trough in the Great Lakes can dig a little deeper, and the trough dig deeper across the SW next week, then the game is on.

[wxman22]

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KFTW

tell me iam not crazy.

Not that it really maters being this far out...but if you look at the minimum temps at hour 192 you can see there in the upper 20's which means the temperature rapidly drops as cold air rushes in so what may be rain at first changes over to snow as the temperature falls...FWIW

[setxweatherfreak]

I have a question for anyone that can answer this..my parents live near Lawton, Ok - the last few days they have heard some rumors that they are expecting another MAJOR Ice Storm before the end of Feb. - actually predicting to be worse than they had a couple weeks ago - and my parents were without electricity for 8 days - luckly they have a propane fireplace! They are very concerned and they knew I listened to you guys...any insight?? Thanks in advance!