Florida Weather

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Yesterday's GFS had some really cold temperatures for Florida, as another member mentioned upper 20s
in central Florida, but today's runs have back off on all that. We would have to get a negative NAO for
a real cold snap to move into FL, which is highly unlikely.

[NDG]

12z Euro looks really cold for FL next weekend, it shows at least a moderate freeze for parts of central FL.
At this time it has no support from its ensembles mean of bringing such a freeze to FL, something to watch over the next couple of days.

[AdamFirst]

We had about a two hour period of light to moderate rain plus thick drizzle earlier this evening

As I was driving about there was ponding on the roads - nothing dramatic, but still pretty large puddles.

[NDG]

0z Euro continues with a very cold event next weekend in FL but not as bitterly cold as yesterday's 12z run. The operational GFS and its ensembles mean is no where near as cold as the euro, which its ensembles mean is also not as cold.
I would expect the next runs of the euro to continue trending towards the GFS and its ensembles just as I would expect the GFS to also trend a little colder.

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

via the round and about looooooooong way looks like Saskatchewan might come visit you Tampa Bay Hurricane!

(course he will be off to the Caribbean)

[NDG]

As expected the Euro keeps trending warmer for next weekend.
This advertised big weather pattern change for the eastern US all is going to bring to FL is bring us back to near average temps for this week, our average for the month will stay above average after such a warm first half of the month.

[SFLcane]

WFO Miami..

THE LATE WEEK PERIOD REMAINS UNCERTAIN, THOUGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE
HAS INCREASED SOMEWHAT BASED ON MODEL TRENDS. THE REASON BEING
THAT THE ECWMF SOLUTIONS OFF BOTH THE 21.00Z AND 21.12Z RUNS HAVE
TRENDED TOWARDS THE GFS SOLUTION (AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN) OF A
LESS AMPLIFIED TROUGH AND MILDER TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE EXPECTED
COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY. EVEN SO, ECMWF REMAINS COLDER...BUT THE
TREND IN THIS MODEL HAS CERTAINLY WARMED. THIS HAS BEEN THE TREND
THIS WARM WINTER.STILL, THE EXACT DEGREE OF COOLING REMAINS
UNCERTAIN. ECMWF SHOWS LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S SUN-MON VS. ITS
PAST RUNS WHICH SHOWED 30S AND 40S. GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW WARMER
LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S SUN-MON. HIGHS OFF THE ECMWF ARE IN THE
60S TO NEAR 70 SUN WHILE THE GFS SHOWS LITTLE COOLING WITH HIGHS
REACHING WELL INTO THE 70S. THE LONG AND THE SHORT OF IT IS THAT
THE RISK FOR A SIGNIFICANT SOUTH FL COLD BLAST IS LESSENING WITH
TIME. ALSO, MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR LESS PRONOUNCED MOISTURE
FRI-SAT, SO HAVE KEPT FRI DRY AND HAVE JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FOR SATURDAY.

[NDG]

Talking about the Miami NWS office wishing for colder wx this winter
They are trying to hang on to the last string of any hope for colder wx. They should had dismissed the euro run from a couple of days ago a long time ago, not today, but is all good, just giving them a hard time

[FireRat]

Ha!

That's pretty silly, the Miami forecast.
Yep, the key word is WARM WINTER.
Even in this warm winter however, the nights still offer some pleasant temps to cool-weather fans...at least inland away from the southeast FL beaches.

Right now its 58 degrees outside my home in West Broward, feels awesome!
Hope the rest of south Floridians, especially Miamians are feeling it too!

[Sanibel]

Solid winter weather over the CONUS. It ticked down here a notch but the Caribbean block still hasn't backed-off.

[Patrick99]

These cold fronts are still just.....not that cold. Not even cold enough to be able to turn the AC off.

[HURRICANELONNY]

I don't think I ever read Miami Weather Dicussion that went from a strong cold front to not even making it through S. Fl. this weekend. The NAO has not been all that neg. so I thought when I read the other day that we could get a strong cold front that it probably would not be that strong. But to fizzle out in central Fl. was somthing I did'nt think would happen. Talk about a flip-flop.

Long term (friday night-wednesday)...
forecast confidence has increased quite a bit as the long-range
numerical guidance has come into better agreement through the
weekend. Overall...the GFS and its ensemble mean have been the more
steady solution over the past several model cycles in comparison to
the European model (ecmwf)...which advertised another surge of drier/cooler air
surging south in the wake of a cold front pushing through South
Florida. All are in general agreement now that the next cold front
will not quite make it this far south and show it hanging up
somewhere over central Florida and diminishing. As a result...mostly
dry conditions will continue through the weekend with easterly flow
remaining in place. The pattern will continue into the upcoming week
with gradual moistening/warming trend expected.

[NDG]

The official 8-14 day range Outlook by the CPC, which I agree because the latest GFS ensembles still show a neutral to slight positive NAO to continue over the next couple of weeks:

THERE ARE INCREASED CHANCES OF BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS, THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY,
MOST OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION, THE OHIO VALLEY, AND ALSO OVER NORTHEASTERN
ALASKA. THESE AREAS ARE GENERALLY CONSISTENT WITH PREDICTED BELOW-NORMAL
HEIGHTS AND NORTHERLY ANOMALOUS FLOW. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED
OVER SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA, OREGON, CALIFORNIA, MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST, AND FAR
SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA. THESE PREDICTED AREAS OF FAVORED ABOVE-NORMAL SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY RELATED TO SOUTHERLY ANOMALOUS FLOW AND
ABOVE-AVERAGE 500-HPA HEIGHTS. ELSEWHERE, NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... xus06.html

[Sanibel]

TWC says the trough in the West will shift eastward for February and cause below normal temperatures.

[HURRICANELONNY]

They can't even get the models to agree 4 days out. You think they can figure out a month.

[FireRat]

I wonder what they mean by "Far Southeastern Florida"

Miami only?

Also, have you guys seen the incredible temperature differences being forecast for the next two nights in the inland areas of south Florida vs the beach locations?

46 and 45 for the Belle Glade, Immokalee area, 55 in Homestead, low 60s in Fort Lauderdale and Miami!
Even parts of Western Broward might dip to between 48 and 50 degrees. Over a 10 degree difference in less than 50 miles.
The Everglades will see mid-to-upper 40s while the coast shall not fall below 60...wow.

[TheStormExpert]

The weathers been too unpredictable this winter due to the Nuetral ENSO as usual. I hope that TWC's February temperature outlook comes true.

[gsytch]

It is a chilly 42.9f right now at 630a NOTHING like I expected, and from here through teh weekend it is anticipated to warm up some with nights warming. Next week we may flirt with 80F before another shot of cool air brings us down some. The flow is suppose to change back to above normal sometime in the second half of Feb, going above normal. A year without a winter? hmmmmmm it is still winter when it is in the lower 40's (to me anyway).

[Sanibel]

That 42* didn't make it down here. 74* right now.

[FireRat]

Well, last night was all about location...

It dipped to 49 degrees in my neighborhood (bordering the everglades in west-central Broward co), and already was in the low 50s by midnight. I was out and about during the time and felt the chill, enough to wear a sweater despite the calm winds.
However, to my east you could see the cumulus-like clouds that hung about 8 miles away and towards the beach areas...that's where the warmth was where the sea-breeze was coming in! Really weird night with 10+ degree contrasts in only 20 miles.

Other inland/everglades towns such as Immokalee, dipped to 48 degrees as well.

Might see the same thing tonight as well across South Florida.