ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[Evil Jeremy]

If this trend keeps up, SFL will be submerged in rain come tomorrow afternoon.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-wv.html

[Scorpion]

The decision to keep schools open seems pretty bad now.

[hiflyer]

So it's dead quiet out here is SE Fla...no air movement...quite still. So get up and check the water vapor
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-wv.html
and then look at long range EYW radar
http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... X&loop=yes
and then at the Pico cuban radar site
http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB ... AXw01a.gif

Thank goodness I don't know anything or I would think 22.27n 80.31w moving NNW at about 11kts......

[Matthew Williams]

Hurakan and for anyone else interested, you can find the eclipse schedule at this website: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/SATS/eclipse.html

[orion]

Why are the satellite images not updating since 0415z?

Here is the eclipse schedule...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/SATS/eclipse.html

edit: Matthew beat me to it!

[Evil Jeremy]

New GFDL is more east for a few days, before moving NW for 1/5 of a day, then moving back NE in line where it was before. Confusing. Anyways, central FL landfall.

[Extremeweatherguy]

FWIW, Joe Bastardi thinks what we are seeing on Key West radar is the center of Fay and he is sticking with his ideas of a landfall at or south of Fort Myers and then crossing the state into the Atlantic. What else is interesting is that he thinks landfall could occur tonight (Monday night), and that since the storm is now better defined, it could be getting stronger by landfall (a.k.a. still a hurricane even though it makes landfall sooner).

[MWatkins]

One note...

Key West radar looking down there will be seeing the mid levels...not the low levels. My guess is the center is still offshore...with a tilted vortex due to weakening shear from the ULL to the west...

MW

[CourierPR]

So it's dead quiet out here is SE Fla...no air movement...quite still. So get up and check the water vapor
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-wv.html
and then look at long range EYW radar
http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... X&loop=yes
and then at the Pico cuban radar site
http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB ... AXw01a.gif

Thank goodness I don't know anything or I would think 22.27n 80.31w moving NNW at about 11kts......

Thanks, I thought I was crazy looking at the loops.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

The back side of whatever's left of the eyewall will be clearing the worst terrain near Pico San Juan within half an hour.

Does this mean that we can quit getting bogged down in the semantics of mountains vs. molehills???!!!

Just teasing, it's late and I'm getting "punchy"!!!

[orion]

For those interested, I now have Key West radar at http://orionweather.net/index.php?content=radar.html

I have a satellite underlay, but you will see there are a few missing 'tiles'.
I also included the NHC forecast track.
Unfortunately, the map doesn't show the outline of Cuba.

That is very cool! ...Would it be easy or hard to use a different satellite underlay?

Not sure, the sat underlay is a placefile I get from Allisonhouse.

[cpdaman]

One note...

Key West radar looking down there will be seeing the mid levels...not the low levels. My guess is the center is still offshore...with a tilted vortex due to weakening shear from the ULL to the west...

MW

how many miles do you think that view would distort by.......i was think about 10-15 not 50

[AJC3]

One note...

Key West radar looking down there will be seeing the mid levels...not the low levels. My guess is the center is still offshore...with a tilted vortex due to weakening shear from the ULL to the west...

MW

Nope. Not a chance, Mike. This feature tracked right over the Pico San Juan radar. It was in the same place on KBYX, and the three cuban radars. It's the center.

[CourierPR]

One note...

Key West radar looking down there will be seeing the mid levels...not the low levels. My guess is the center is still offshore...with a tilted vortex due to weakening shear from the ULL to the west...

MW

MW, what is the current movement?

[senorpepr]

The script is rerunning now. I made a few tweaks--I reduced the isobar contour interval from 1 to 4 hPa. I also made the county outlines the last product displayed, effectively overlaying them on top.

[Jevo]

One note...

Key West radar looking down there will be seeing the mid levels...not the low levels. My guess is the center is still offshore...with a tilted vortex due to weakening shear from the ULL to the west...

MW

2 questions Mike... what about Tampa Bay??? and will the Galveson Upper Tropispheric Trough (GUTT) have any impact??

[HURAKAN]

RECON almost there. Now over Golfo de Batabanó, south of Hanava.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I still can't get over how fast this seems to be flying across Cuba. I wouldn't be surprised to wake up to this already offshore by tomorrow morning heading NNW toward the Keys and S or SW Florida. It could wind up being a pretty crazy day!

http://radar.weather.gov/radar_lite.php ... Z&loop=yes

[orion]

One note...

Key West radar looking down there will be seeing the mid levels...not the low levels. My guess is the center is still offshore...with a tilted vortex due to weakening shear from the ULL to the west...

MW

Good point, Mike. Does anyone have the site that shows how high up in the atmosphere the radar is actually "seeing" based on tilt angle and distance from radar? I think I have seen it on S2K before but can't find it and no luck googling yet.

[hiflyer]

One note...

Key West radar looking down there will be seeing the mid levels...not the low levels. My guess is the center is still offshore...with a tilted vortex due to weakening shear from the ULL to the west...

MW

Mike! can't sleep?? grin GRlevel3 says looking at about 24 thousand feet down there...Topo maps suggest coming right around the higher elevations like water flowing around a rock in the stream....

Course can't be right as that is well east of the forecast points and the model consensus.....but then I don't recall if the G4 ever overflew Cuban airspace prior to now or just sampled from the N and S edges.....not that it would make a big difference...hmmm.