ATL: IRMA - Models

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

http://pparker.org/hurricanes/hurricane_history.htm

[Frank P]

Keys will take a direct hit

[Ken711]

H111 nw motion.. pressure 914...

Right over top of the Keys.

[Frank P]

H111 nw motion.. pressure down to 914...

Can't see the images yet, guessing a landfall north of the keys on the west coast??

this is the radio version...play by play

[Voltron]

Wow the GFS has taken the storm as a 895 mb right to NC now and up the middle. Has the storm changing course and up the east coast of FL. Very interesting chsnge if it verifies. gFS has done cery well sniffing out this storm like matthew

[jlauderdal]

With the GFS being to the right of almost every one of it's own ensembles, I don't see how you can take it as any type of "trend". If you're in Florida, a single run of the GFS should not be delaying your preparations.

If the euro starts coming east then maybe we have something...listen to rl3a0 and maintain preps

[GTStorm]

So what is the story on the HMON model...good? not so good? too new to really know?

[Frank P]

H117 pressure 919 landfall at the extreme tip of SW FL...

[RL3AO]

GFS Ensembles

[MrJames]

18z GFS ensembles


Clustered much tighter up the spine. You'd think it was for the 12z run.

[stormreader]

h102 south of FL pressure 913 still looks WNW

Sounds like its going to be further west than Euro. Believe you said the HWRF track did not dip as far south into Cuba, too, true????

The HWRF is going to end up with a similar track to the Euro..heading north with what will be a landfall in mainland Monroe county after hitting the keys..

And that, I think, is around where the NHC will keep their track focused, for now. Euro run tonight, of course, very important. But just my own guess, it won't swing back east any. West trends have been pretty firmly established over last several days. Guessing it will remain close to present location near keys or just above in Monroe county. Actually think, it might even tick a little further west in the next couple of runs, and their might not be as much south dip over Cuba on the way. Maybe a little further north on the Fl West Coast in the next couple of days. Think the HWRF might be on to something, here. As for GFS, think it might keep east for another run or so, before swinging back.

[Frank P]

looks about 1.5 degrees NE of previous run...

[MatthewsRevenge]

18z GEFS Ensembles slightly more clustered over the FL peninsula with 3 going east of FL.

The GFS ensembles take Irma up the spine of Florida..the GFS OP run is the east outlier...when in doubt go with the ensembles.

Makes sense, thanks. 18z GFS definitely was an outlier. No way this escapes Florida.

[Frank P]

moving north on the extreme SW coast of FL h123

[tolakram]

HWRF 18Z Florida landfall.

[Agua]

Sounds like its going to be further west than Euro. Believe you said the HWRF track did not dip as far south into Cuba, too, true????

The HWRF is going to end up with a similar track to the Euro..heading north with what will be a landfall in mainland Monroe county after hitting the keys..

And that, I think, is around where the NHC will keep their track focused, for now. Euro run tonight, of course, very important. But just my own guess, it won't swing back east any. West trends have been pretty firmly established over last several days. Guessing it will remain close to present location near keys or just above in Monroe county. Actually think, it might even tick a little further west in the next couple of runs, and their might not be as much south dip over Cuba on the way. Maybe a little further north on the Fl West Coast in the next couple of days. Think the HWRF might be on to something, here. As for GFS, think it might keep east for another run or so, before swinging back.

Realize we're still talking 5 days out.

[HurricaneFrances04]

The size of the eye and eyewall depicted on the HWRF in 120 hrs reminds me quite of Wilma (quite large).

[Frank P]

[Frank P]

[SouthFLTropics]

HWRF 18Z Florida landfall.

Ironically almost in the same location as Wilma almost 12 years ago.