Texas Winter 2014-2015

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SouthernMet
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#7501 Postby SouthernMet » Tue Mar 03, 2015 9:55 am

While we wait on 12z guidance, SREF/GFS trended alot wetter this morning.

At the same time 12z nam continues the trend of warmer lows thursday morning, imo, atm, looks like 30-32 for austin thursday morning which would simply not be could enough for a high impact event. 12z nam is alot wetter though.
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#7502 Postby hriverajr » Tue Mar 03, 2015 9:56 am

http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/satellite/displaySat.php?region=US&itype=wv&size=large&endDate=20150303&endTime=-1&duration=12

Quite a low
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#7503 Postby SouthernMet » Tue Mar 03, 2015 9:58 am



It's about that time to start watching current dynamics. Where's orangeblood & srainhoutx?? :wink:
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#7504 Postby Stormcenter » Tue Mar 03, 2015 9:59 am

How does the strength of the low affect the upcoming even, is it positive or negative for those seeking the wintry stuff?

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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#7505 Postby Ntxw » Tue Mar 03, 2015 10:02 am



Yeah it's has the tropical connection quite well even further back.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/tpac/wv-l.jpg
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#7506 Postby downsouthman1 » Tue Mar 03, 2015 10:05 am


Agreed. The dry air that it is carrying with it is such a big blob. Amazing actually. I guess this will be a convective low. http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/geo/index ... thod=flash
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#7507 Postby hriverajr » Tue Mar 03, 2015 10:16 am

Stormcenter wrote:How does the strength of the low affect the upcoming even, is it positive or negative for those seeking the wintry stuff?




Too early to tell
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#7508 Postby SouthernMet » Tue Mar 03, 2015 10:25 am

12z** RGEM definitely is cold enough for Austin...

RGEM shows intense convective thundersleet & thundersnow from 9pm-midnight in west & central texas.

Looks plausible imo.
Last edited by SouthernMet on Tue Mar 03, 2015 10:49 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#7509 Postby stormlover2013 » Tue Mar 03, 2015 10:47 am

12 GFS is really wet!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#7510 Postby downsouthman1 » Tue Mar 03, 2015 10:55 am

stormlover2013 wrote:12 GFS is really wet!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Yeah but still looks to me like it's trying to shut precip down as the CAA strengthens.
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#7511 Postby stormlover2013 » Tue Mar 03, 2015 10:56 am

well yesterday runs were little drier and today runs are wetter so we shall see
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#7512 Postby Brent » Tue Mar 03, 2015 11:00 am

Definitely wetter:

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#7513 Postby Portastorm » Tue Mar 03, 2015 11:06 am

SouthernMet wrote:12z** RGEM definitely is cold enough for Austin...

RGEM shows intense convective thundersleet & thundersnow from 9pm-midnight in west & central texas.

Looks plausible imo.


Just saw that run ... be still my beating heart ... thundersleet in Austin? I haven't seen that since the early 2000s (2002 or 2003, can't remember exactly).
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#7514 Postby downsouthman1 » Tue Mar 03, 2015 11:07 am


Impressive. Considering that's an accumulated snow map.
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#7515 Postby downsouthman1 » Tue Mar 03, 2015 11:08 am

SouthernMet wrote:12z** RGEM definitely is cold enough for Austin...

RGEM shows intense convective thundersleet & thundersnow from 9pm-midnight in west & central texas.

Looks plausible imo.

Fits my thoughts of this being a convection producing low.
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#7516 Postby gpsnowman » Tue Mar 03, 2015 11:12 am

Have not had time to look, is the cold front moving down the plains quicker? Love for this to be an all snow event. Thanks.
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#7517 Postby stormlover2013 » Tue Mar 03, 2015 11:13 am

why aren't images showing up
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#7518 Postby Kelarie » Tue Mar 03, 2015 11:16 am

If someone can give a wee bit of input for the Tyler/Longview area. I think what I have seen ranges from beautiful weather to ice storm of death. Thoughts?
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Re:

#7519 Postby Ralph's Weather » Tue Mar 03, 2015 11:19 am

Kelarie wrote:If someone can give a wee bit of input for the Tyler/Longview area. I think what I have seen ranges from beautiful weather to ice storm of death. Thoughts?

It is still a tricky forecast, but my best call would be something similar to last Monday. 1" rain then .1" ice then .5" sleet then maybe a bit of snow.
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Re:

#7520 Postby Brent » Tue Mar 03, 2015 11:20 am

gpsnowman wrote:Have not had time to look, is the cold front moving down the plains quicker? Love for this to be an all snow event. Thanks.


Certainly up here in DFW it definitely seems to be more sleet/snow and maybe a good ending as snow but I still don't completely trust these models yet.

Although having the RGEM on the wet side and now seeing other models go wet is very noteworthy.

and yeah that accumulated snow map didn't have anything in Texas basically last night...

Here's the other view of that:

Image
Last edited by Brent on Tue Mar 03, 2015 11:23 am, edited 2 times in total.
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