ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Through 6:17am EDT:

[caneman]

I hate to beat a dead horse and maybe my math isn't great but at 18 hours it will pass Clearwater and Indian rocks beach at about 150 miles west. T.S. winds in so far are expected out to 140 miles. I agree with RonJon I've lived on the very western part of Pinellas for a long time and I'd expect 35 to 45 sustained. Sadly, the nhc doesn't put up watches so the regular joe schmo won't know. Since weve had 12.inches of rain already, I'm expecting some fallen trees and coastal surge flooding.

[SouthDadeFish]

A convective burst has recently developed near/over the TC center and convection is slowly trying to expand to the NW:

[chris_fit]

I hate to beat a dead horse and maybe my math isn't great but at 18 hours it will pass Clearwater and Indian rocks beach at about 150 miles west. T.S. winds in so far are expected out to 140 miles.

Sounds like a good candidate for a TS 'Watch'

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Through 6:27am EDT:

[JKingTampa]

I hate to beat a dead horse and maybe my math isn't great but at 18 hours it will pass Clearwater and Indian rocks beach at about 150 miles west. T.S. winds in so far are expected out to 140 miles.

Sounds like a good candidate for a TS 'Watch'

The wording from the daily NWS forecast even says Tropical Storm Conditions possible with gusts up to 43 right now , ...iiiiiisn't that what a Tropical Storm Watch is? lol Silly NWS.

[tropicwatch]

Good grief I have a landfalling tropical system on my doorstep and the server for my tropicwatch website goes down for maintenance. At least I have my weather station

[NDG]

So based on the recon fixes during the past 4 hours, Hermine is almost moving on a NE heading, based on the calculations below with an average speed of 12.5 mph.

Code: Select all

Point 1:   
25 56 00N
 , 
087 04 00W
Point 2:   
26 40 00N
 , 
086 20 00W
Distance:   109.5 km (to 4 SF*)
Initial bearing:   041°42′50″
Final bearing:   042°02′20″

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Nws point forecast for redington beach shows tropical storm conditions with gusts to 46 mph, so 40 to 50 mph gusts are very reasonable for coastal Pinellas. Granted that pales in comparison to the gusts over 80 mph expected near the landfall point NW of here.

[caneman]

Well, if that holds true and continues thay way and my math is correct that would put it just over 100 miles off my coast line. Is NHC going to go ahead and play chicken?

[NDG]

Recon is finding plenty of strong TS force winds 100 miles east of the COC.

[chris_fit]

If we extrapolate current movement, Expect a Landfall at or just north of Cedar Key Area in Dixie County....

Is this thing supposed to wobble back to the west? it's alreadt at the same lat of it's 24 hours forecast point from 5pm yesterday.

[weathaguyry]

Are these legitimate wind readings, or is it rain contaminated or something like that? There were some hurricane force winds recorded earlier

[caneman]

Nws point forecast for redington beach shows tropical storm conditions with gusts to 46 mph, so 40 to 50 mph gusts are very reasonable for coastal Pinellas. Granted that pales in comparison to the gusts over 80 mph expected near the landfall point NW of here.

In my mind its more important that the NHC says it, it gets more attention. Maybe some work places would close etc.. its not going to take much wind to bring trees down with flooded.grounds. I doubt they will though, NHC can sometimes be stubborn and slow to react. Not a slam just an observation through the years. To be sure, I think they do a great job. Prolly just nitpicking a bit.

[Extratropical94]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/recon_NOAA3-1209A-HERMINE_zoom.png

Are these legitimate wind readings, or is it rain contaminated or something like that? There were some hurricane force winds recorded earlier

These are legitimate readings, but at an altitude of 1500m. Surface winds usually are ~30% lower.

[Extratropical94]

FL winds of 70 kts due east of the previous center pass, also closer to the center now.

[GCANE]

That buoy just SE of the CoC is really taking a dive.

[caneman]

That buoy just SE of the CoC is really taking a dive.

Whoa!!

[terrapintransit]

What does this suggest??

That buoy just SE of the CoC is really taking a dive.

[GCANE]

Higher tropopause to the east of the CoC.
Hermine's movement into it will allow the vortex to expand vertically and spin up.

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/abe ... sen_57.gif

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... g8vor1.GIF