ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[jlauderdal]

Extremely
Mesmerizing
Intriguing
LLC,
Yes?

I'm kinda' like many too in the "it's not over until..." camp. Not saying it will, but at this point I wouldn't be surprised by anything

If you had to put a number on the chances of regeneration, what number would you give it?

22.5%

[WilmingtonSandbar]

without model watching

Maybe out attention may be turned very soon to the other part of the world.

There's another part of the world?

[Rgv20]

I did not know the NWS was allowed to wishcast To be fair we are in a really bad drought so I will wishcast too! lol

NWS Brownsville Afternoon Discussion

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...500MB SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES SATURDAY WILL
DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TROUGHING IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTH WILL BEGIN TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST U.S. THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS WILL
ONLY REINFORCE THE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY
THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. THE ONLY POSSIBILITY OF ANY RAIN
CHANCES DEPENDS ON TROPICAL STORM EMILY WEAKENING AND MOVING
WESTWARD AS A WAVE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO BUT NONE OF THE LONG
RANGE MODELS HINT AT THIS SCENARIO FOR NOW. OTHERWISE...HOT AND
HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE LONG TERM.

[Jevo]

I'm with previous posters that have said it's not over till it's over. Not saying this will happen, by any means, but just wanted to remind people that at one point Andrew had no well defined center after becoming a named trop system....

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki?search=Hurricane+andrew

[Aric Dunn]

So I dont want to get everyone all riled up again.. But I do think I know what happened...

The circulation at least in the low level may be moving NW across the very western side if hispanola.. probably started moving early this morning. you can see it pop out of the convection moving NW. Guess it should be watched a little longer ... just not all night lol


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-rgb.html

[tolakram]

You know it's going to blow up tonight when we can't see anything, it always does.

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 041950
AF306 1205A EMILY HDOB 24 20110804
194030 1733N 07241W 7041 03107 0109 +090 +049 221024 025 015 000 03
194100 1732N 07239W 6947 03214 0113 +080 +044 220027 028 020 000 00
194130 1731N 07237W 6957 03198 0111 +079 +039 219027 028 021 000 03
194200 1731N 07234W 6973 03184 0109 +082 +037 220028 029 022 000 00
194230 1730N 07232W 6967 03189 0111 +080 +035 225027 028 017 000 00
194300 1729N 07230W 6967 03187 0114 +079 +033 224024 026 012 001 00
194330 1728N 07228W 6962 03196 0116 +076 +031 226023 024 011 000 00
194400 1727N 07225W 6970 03185 0116 +078 +030 225021 023 004 000 03
194430 1726N 07223W 6969 03189 0113 +080 +028 221022 022 007 000 00
194500 1725N 07221W 6967 03188 0118 +078 +027 219022 023 014 000 03
194530 1725N 07218W 6966 03191 0123 +075 +025 218024 024 017 000 03
194600 1725N 07218W 6966 03191 0121 +075 +025 218025 025 019 000 00
194630 1723N 07214W 6965 03192 0118 +076 +024 216024 025 016 000 00
194700 1722N 07211W 6966 03194 0118 +076 +024 213023 023 012 001 03
194730 1721N 07209W 6968 03189 0116 +080 +024 213021 022 018 000 03
194800 1720N 07207W 6968 03191 0115 +080 +024 213021 022 018 000 00
194830 1720N 07204W 6967 03188 0112 +081 +024 215025 028 014 000 00
194900 1719N 07202W 6966 03189 0110 +080 +024 214028 028 015 000 03
194930 1718N 07200W 6966 03190 0108 +084 +024 209029 031 009 000 00
195000 1717N 07158W 6968 03188 0104 +087 +022 207031 032 008 000 03
$$
;

[Aric Dunn]

Its better seen close up

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

[Canelaw99]

LOL Jevo

I know there are people on here who like a little research...It seems like there was a model or two that proposed this very thing (basically dying over Hisp then regenerating, or the circ jumping, or something). Someone feel like sifting through the model thread to see???

[SouthFloridawx]

The UKMET has nothing but hope for Emily...

[artist]

Its better seen close up

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

I tend to agree.

[Aric Dunn]

LOL Jevo

I know there are people on here who like a little research...It seems like there was a model or two that proposed this very thing (basically dying over Hisp then regenerating, or the circ jumping, or something). Someone feel like sifting through the model thread to see???

there were actually quite a few models that from time to time jumped back and forth with a solution like that..

[stormhunter7]

Does anyone see any west winds? I think this may be an open wave now... having a hard time finding any west winds

[jonj2040]

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[SouthFLTropics]

Extremely
Mesmerizing
Intriguing
LLC,
Yes?

I'm kinda' like many too in the "it's not over until..." camp. Not saying it will, but at this point I wouldn't be surprised by anything

If you had to put a number on the chances of regeneration, what number would you give it?

22.5%

So you're TELLING ME THERE'S A CHANCE! LOL



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[CrazyC83]

So the circulation may have reformed over Haiti?

[CrazyC83]

All bets are off now. The trough is no longer in play since there is no closed circulation, correct?

[Canelaw99]

LOL Jevo

I know there are people on here who like a little research...It seems like there was a model or two that proposed this very thing (basically dying over Hisp then regenerating, or the circ jumping, or something). Someone feel like sifting through the model thread to see???

there were actually quite a few models that from time to time jumped back and forth with a solution like that..

Thanks Aric! I was beginning to wonder if I'd dreamt it lol

[SapphireSea]

Does anyone see any west winds? I think this may be an open wave now... having a hard time finding any west winds

There are no discernable west winds. Best track data already labels this as a wave operationally. An official downgrade will.come at 5 most likely.

[Aric Dunn]

So the circulation may have reformed over Haiti?

not reformed.. and its not exactly at the surface.. but it looks like the low levels the circ moved onshore early this morning and is moving NW about to exit offshore in the next 8 to 12 hours..