ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[Normandy]

I really do hope that isn't the center, because if it is the NHC is going to look really bad, and its not really fair to them.

[lbvbl]

This time lapse pretty much speaks for itself. The vortex passes right over the radar site, which at most is about the height of Pico San Juan + maybe 100 feet for the tower...so it's looking at 3000-3500 feet up at most.

is it just me, or does it appear that it has REALLY sped up?

No it's not just you. Lets see what the 2am advisory says. But it looks like Fay woke the heck up and is running to the Florida Straits.

Yeah this is getting so interesting.. what direction do you guys thing this is going now? NNW? N?

[WxGuy1]

is it just me, or does it appear that it has REALLY sped up?

Nope. Once the convection found the circulation it was pedal to the metal.

Be a little cautious because there are many frames missing between 10:30 pm and ~1:15 am. It seems to have sped up regardless, but the "skippiness" that occurs after 10:30 pm is caused by an incomplete loop; the interval between frames changes. So, it hasn't accelerated quite as much as a first glance at that loop would indicate.

Anyone know what wavelength the Cuba radars operate at? S-band or C-band? I assume S-band, but it may be C-band. If it's C-band, be very aware that severe attenuation will be present in the data. Heck, even if the Cuban radars are S-band, there will be some attenuation given the very high precip rates likely.

/ Always be aware of the time stamps on images (especially if the interval between frames changes rapidly)
// Same goes for axes on graphs!

[AJC3]

Is rapid deepening possible?

Has to get to the straits first. We'll see what kind of shape it's in early tomorrow morning.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Yeah this is getting so interesting.. what direction do you guys thing this is going now? NNW? N?

Looks to be moving NW or NNW to me.

[Ground_Zero_92]

Looks to be moving NNW to me.

Agreed.

[HURAKAN]

[AdamFirst]

Be a little cautious because there are many frames missing between 10:30 pm and ~1:15 am. It seems to have sped up regardless, but the "skippiness" that occurs after 10:30 pm is caused by an incomplete loop; the interval between frames changes. So, it hasn't accelerated quite as much as a first glance at that loop would indicate.

/ Always be aware of the time stamps on images (especially if the interval between frames changes rapidly)
// Same goes for axes on graphs!

I know that.

The Key West long range supports the acceleration.

[hiflyer]

Sure hope the local tv stations down here don't pick up on this cuz I really enjoy those infomercials...

[sunnyday]

What millions of people may be surprised by this? One more question--when you say South Florida, exactly what do you mean--how far south and on which coast? Thank you..

[AJC3]

is it just me, or does it appear that it has REALLY sped up?

Nope. Once the convection found the circulation it was pedal to the metal.

Be a little cautious because there are many frames missing between 10:30 pm and ~1:15 am. It seems to have sped up regardless, but the "skippiness" that occurs after 10:30 pm is caused by an incomplete loop; the interval between frames changes. So, it hasn't accelerated quite as much as a first glance at that loop would indicate.

/ Always be aware of the time stamps on images (especially if the interval between frames changes rapidly)
// Same goes for axes on graphs!

D'oh! Yeah, I definitely should have mentioned that! The radar has updating erratically since about that time. Was more intent on showing the direction of movement rather than speed of forward motion...and indeed it gives the erroneous appearance of having sped up.

Thanks for pointing that out!

[CajunMama]

There's been talk about closings in the main fay thread that are getting buried. Let's put all the closings here so they don't get lost.

[Clipper96]

Seeing reds in the central cells again on Key West long-range. Fay is actually re-intensifying while over land.

Those colors may be due to Fay getting closer to the radar site, Key west.

Generally speaking this is true; however the convection we're discussing hasn't moved thatfar, and more intense returns were seen father away earlier.

My impression is that the mountain of Pico San Juan briefly disrupted the circulation, and that that disruption is now over. From here on, it's flat as a cookie-sheet to the coast.

[Ground_Zero_92]

2am advisory is late. I wonder if they are as shocked as we are?

[lbvbl]

[/quote]

is it just me, or does it appear that it has REALLY sped up?[/quote]

No it's not just you. Lets see what the 2am advisory says. But it looks like Fay woke the heck up and is running to the Florida Straits.[/quote]

Yeah this is getting so interesting.. what direction do you guys thing this is going now? NNW? N?[/quote]

oh okay, that makes a lot of sense. Why does it skip like that, though?

[AdamFirst]

In terms of public schools, I only know Miami-Dade, Monroe and Broward are closed.

[DESTRUCTION5]

2am advisory is late. I wonder if they are as shocked as we are?

one word...RECON

[Extremeweatherguy]

What millions of people may be surprised by this? One more question--when you say South Florida, exactly what do you mean--how far south and on which coast? Thank you..

If the current direction continued, then it would be either the southern tip of Florida or extreme SW Florida. However, small changes in direction could be huge from this point forward, so stay tuned.

[TexasSam]

a fewframes from the cuba radar are missing, so it seems to jump from time to time. but still way off track. going to be a bunch of wet & shocked people this morning...

[CajunMama]

Y'all been discussing school closings and i'm sure there will be other closings. Those posts are going to get buried in here so let's put them in

Florida Closures - Schools, Businesses etc.