Texas Winter 2017-2018

[ThunderSleetDreams]

When is the big time cold coming if it is at all? The euro definitely isn't nearly as cold as gfs. Beginning to wonder if it will get cold again this winter. Dry nw flow isn't exciting at all. I guess I'm really confused more than anything. I guess the cross polar flow isn't going to happen for us.

Cross Polar flow IS happening at this moment. Just because there is cross polar flow doesn’t mean places south of the Canadian border are going to get cold. It just means that our source regions are loaded for us.

With that said, one would think most of you would have learned your lesson by now following each model run to run outside of 3-5 days. Our coldest air has been modeled to be here between the 9th and 16th. The people who know the most on here are persistent it’s coming. What we don’t know is timing and severity.

When I look at the ingredients for the next 16 days, I’d make a heavy wager cold is coming. Precip won’t be talked about until 2/5.

Hell, if we don’t get an arctic front or two, I’ll change my avatar to that ugly burnt orange uterus symbol for a month...

I know ThunderSleetDreams to be a passionate fan of that school who proudly sings about farmers fighting and all that ... so for him to make this bet to change his avatar to honor our state's finest bovine symbol ... well folks, that's huge! LOL.

Gig'em Porta

[Haris]

I am just getting so confused over these models that are sooo crazy . I am doing something I have not done for a year . I won’t look at any model run until Sunday afternoon .

[wxman57]

Wow! The 12Z GFS run (just coming in) is amazing!

Made you look!

[Haris]

Wow! The 12Z GFS run (just coming in) is amazing!

Made you look!

LOL.

[Tireman4]

Wow! The 12Z GFS run (just coming in) is amazing!

Made you look!

Sir...sir....that is just not funny...we have folks here that live and die with each model...to make them have a heart stoppage each run...my goodness...what has this Winter done to our Wxman 57? The old, heat em, scorched earth Wxman 57? What a Winter? LOL

[Ralph's Weather]

Much less amplified pattern in the long range in the ensembles today. It will be interesting to watch how this all develops. Likely won't have a good idea until this weekend and we will not know about moisture until a day or two out from any potential system.

[stormlover2013]

lol and people were jumping the gun on monday because GFS show some wintry stuff lol, hopefully peeps will learn to not hug and just let it play out till about 2 days out.

[rearview]

Hell, if we don’t get an arctic front or two, I’ll change my avatar to that ugly burnt orange uterus symbol for a month...

Don't be crazy, now...

[stormlover2013]

GFS and CMC just blah!!! hope it stays like this crawfish season babyy!!!

[Yukon Cornelius]

Forecasted high of 80 today before the cool front comes through tonight. The rest of the week looks to be nice with highs in the 50s. If by this weekend there still really isn't any signs of extreme cold it looks to a good time to get the garden plowed, manure added and ready for onions.

[Ntxw]

lol and people were jumping the gun on monday because GFS show some wintry stuff lol, hopefully peeps will learn to not hug and just let it play out till about 2 days out.

With all due respect, discussion is not hugging anything.

How about providing us more thoughts, when do you think it may get cold again? Or will it all, what is your thoughts on the rest of the season? That adds more to this thread than persistent criticism of other poster's time and effort.

[Lagreeneyes03]

Pretty good agreement now between the GEFS and EPS with EPS being a bit warmer. The 00z EPS doesn't have any cold air in N. America at the end of the run with a huge western H dominating everything.

Yep, it's going to the biggest threat to end a pattern like this....The Bering Strait Ridge retrograding back towards Siberia instead of down into Alaska/NA. If there is some validity to the overnight runs, my concern would then shift to.... by the time the MJO gets over into Phase 1,2,3 - will there be enough cold air in NA to make this interesting ? That happened last year - by the time the MJO swung around into favorable phases for us, there was no cold to be found

Wasn't something like this one of the early thoughts for winter though? A short but very cold winter followed by an early spring?

[Ntxw]

Pretty good agreement now between the GEFS and EPS with EPS being a bit warmer. The 00z EPS doesn't have any cold air in N. America at the end of the run with a huge western H dominating everything.

Yep, it's going to the biggest threat to end a pattern like this....The Bering Strait Ridge retrograding back towards Siberia instead of down into Alaska/NA. If there is some validity to the overnight runs, my concern would then shift to.... by the time the MJO gets over into Phase 1,2,3 - will there be enough cold air in NA to make this interesting ? That happened last year - by the time the MJO swung around into favorable phases for us, there was no cold to be found

Wasn't something like this one of the early thoughts for winter though? A short but very cold winter followed by an early spring?

It can happen, it is actually Nina climo to be cold early and warm as winter goes on. Nino climo is the opposite. All things equal of course

[Brent]

Pretty good agreement now between the GEFS and EPS with EPS being a bit warmer. The 00z EPS doesn't have any cold air in N. America at the end of the run with a huge western H dominating everything.

Yep, it's going to the biggest threat to end a pattern like this....The Bering Strait Ridge retrograding back towards Siberia instead of down into Alaska/NA. If there is some validity to the overnight runs, my concern would then shift to.... by the time the MJO gets over into Phase 1,2,3 - will there be enough cold air in NA to make this interesting ? That happened last year - by the time the MJO swung around into favorable phases for us, there was no cold to be found

Wasn't something like this one of the early thoughts for winter though? A short but very cold winter followed by an early spring?

That's what I remember too... a front-loaded winter

[Yukon Cornelius]

Yep, it's going to the biggest threat to end a pattern like this....The Bering Strait Ridge retrograding back towards Siberia instead of down into Alaska/NA. If there is some validity to the overnight runs, my concern would then shift to.... by the time the MJO gets over into Phase 1,2,3 - will there be enough cold air in NA to make this interesting ? That happened last year - by the time the MJO swung around into favorable phases for us, there was no cold to be found

Wasn't something like this one of the early thoughts for winter though? A short but very cold winter followed by an early spring?

That's what I remember too... a front-loaded winter

Same here

[orangeblood]

Yep, it's going to the biggest threat to end a pattern like this....The Bering Strait Ridge retrograding back towards Siberia instead of down into Alaska/NA. If there is some validity to the overnight runs, my concern would then shift to.... by the time the MJO gets over into Phase 1,2,3 - will there be enough cold air in NA to make this interesting ? That happened last year - by the time the MJO swung around into favorable phases for us, there was no cold to be found

Wasn't something like this one of the early thoughts for winter though? A short but very cold winter followed by an early spring?

That's what I remember too... a front-loaded winter

Looking at the numbers, not even sure you could consider this winter "loaded" at all. Maybe a 2 week stretch out of 8 weeks so far that could be considered winter-like. Dry-cold for DFW though

DFW Winter 2017-18 up to this point.....

Temperatures: Above Normal December, Normal January, ?
Precip: Above Normal December, Below Normal January, ?
Snow: Maybe a Snowflake or two. Now ranks as the longest measurable snow-less period in over 75 years

Unless the 2nd half of Feb can get it's act together....this is another pretty benign winter around this area of the southern plains. You could make an argument that these are the two worst back-back winters since 1998-1999, if Feb can't deliver. I believe Amarillo has the least amount of snowfall in recorded history up to this point in the season

[Brent]

Wasn't something like this one of the early thoughts for winter though? A short but very cold winter followed by an early spring?

That's what I remember too... a front-loaded winter

Looking at the numbers, not even sure you could consider this winter "loaded" at all. Maybe a 2 week stretch out of 8 weeks so far that could be considered winter-like. Dry-cold for DFW though

DFW Winter 2017-18 up to this point.....

Temperatures: Above Normal December, Normal January, ?
Precip: Above Normal December, Below Normal January, ?
Snow: Maybe a Snowflake or two. Now ranks as the longest measurable snow-less period in over 75 years

Unless the 2nd half of Feb can get it's act together....this is another pretty benign winter around this area of the southern plains. You could make an argument that these are the two worst back-back winters since 1998-1999, if Feb can't deliver. I believe Amarillo has the least amount of snowfall in recorded history up to this point in the season

3 back to back sad winters... this winter had cold, but man it was lacking in so many other areas. There are reportedly mountains in Colorado with no snow at the end of January

[Ntxw]

I-20 and north is snow starved, it is pretty bad and we all agree. It has been a tale of two winters in the state.


Side note:

That being said we do need to cut down on some of the banter and complaining about not getting our 1" in of snow in x location. We do not want to transition the Texas Winter threads to be like the heavily modded tropical season threads. Readers do not want to read about chat talk how it is the wimpiest, not a flake, etc in one's backyard for 5 pages. That is my two cents for the day. . State what you feel, add information if you can and move on. No one here can make it snow, at the mercy of nature

[dhweather]

On all of the evening news they were talking about a "four day storm" beginning Feb 10-11 and lasting through Valentine's day, and also made it clear to not pay attention to the social media posts about it, that they don't think it will happen a'la December/Christmas storm that came up Mid-Dec.

Grossly irresponsible of the broadcast media. As a whole, our society is now much more worried about being "first" that being correct, or close to correct.

When it doesn't happen like they are saying, meteorologists as a whole will take the blame, when its primarily broadcast media attention pigs frothing got hype and attention.

The when we have a PDS Tornado Watch this spring, people will blow it off, because of stuff like this.

Wonder what these broadcast types are thinking after reviewing the 12Z GFS?

[dhweather]

:uarrow: I-20 and north is snow starved, it is pretty bad and we all agree. It has been a tale of two winters in the state.


Side note:

That being said we do need to cut down on some of the banter and complaining about not getting our 1" in of snow in x location. We do not want to transition the Texas Winter threads to be like the heavily modded tropical season threads. Readers do not want to read about chat talk how it is the wimpiest, not a flake, etc in one's backyard for 5 pages. That is my two cents for the day. . State what you feel, add information if you can and move on. No one here can make it snow, at the mercy of nature

You say that, but we all know the bi-polar heat/cold miser has the controls for all of the weather in a black box by his desk. He mercilessly toys with us every season.