CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[pwv001]

Here we go again. Research from the LSU ESL has indicated that dry air cores (ULLs or ULHs) can affect steering currents regarding tropical cyclones. I have predicted a large number of systems over the years with good accuracy. I was wrong with Katrina and Rita because they created their own environments. Further research is being done by Dr. Hsu at LSU regarding this matter. Science and reason rule, not supernatural nonsense. Thank you

What's your deal?

[soney]

Here we go again. Research from the LSU ESL has indicated that dry air cores (ULLs or ULHs) can affect steering currents regarding tropical cyclones. I have predicted a large number of systems over the years with good accuracy. I was wrong with Katrina and Rita because they created their own environments. Further research is being done by Dr. Hsu at LSU regarding this matter. Science and reason rule, not supernatural nonsense. Thank you

I am sorry but could you just give it up or take it to another not-so-busy board until after this mess is over?

I'm all for research but please, have a heart for those trying to read this board for information.

[Ivanhater]

[Coredesat]

Storm2K disclaimer: The following post is not an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

CTCC disclaimer: These products are unofficial and are not certified by any Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre, Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre, or any official forecasting agency and may be subject to large errors. Refer to their products for official updates.

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Intense Hurricane Dean (04L)
Tropical Cyclone Warning - Atlantic
Forecast #2 - 0600 UTC 18 August 2007

...Hurricane Dean in the Caribbean south of Puerto Rico...

Estimated Position: 15.0°N 67.1°W (confidence fair, extrapolated)
Maximum Sustained Winds: 130 knots (150 mph)
Minimum Central Pressure: 930 hPa
Movement: W at 15 knots

DISCUSSION

Forecasts have been nonexistent for the past 24 hours due to a power failure. During this time, Dean (04L) has intensified quickly into a dangerous Category 4 hurricane. The latest Air Force reconnaissance flight found a pressure of 930 hPa and maximum flight winds of 157 kt, though this value is suspect and has been discarded. Dean has an impressive symmetric central dense overcast with a large rainband wrapping outward to the north and east of the center. Convection is not as deep as it has been earlier, however. The system has a 13 nautical mile wide circular eye that has slowly been decreasing in size, and there are currently no indications of an impending eyewall replacement cycle. The system is over 30°C waters and is in a favorable upper air environment. Dvorak estimates were T6.0/6.0 from TAFB and SAB, but based on recon findings the intensity is estimated to be 130 kt.

The model guidance is divergent over where Dean will go in the next several days. At this point, most of the model guidance takes the system over the Yucatan Peninsula and then into the Bay of Campeche. However, two notable outliers are the interpolated GFDL and GFDT, which have Dean missing the Yucatan Peninsula entirely and moving into the Gulf of Mexico toward southeastern Texas. Of course, the GFDL also intensifies Dean to 169 kt, which makes this run suspect at this point.

For now none of the other guidance is suggesting such a track, but see no reason to discount the GFDI/GFTI completely, so will lean toward a westward track with a turn toward the west-northwest and toward the Yucatan Peninsula after 36 hours. Some strengthening is possible, and Dean could become a Category 5 hurricane in the next 12-24 hours. Land interaction should weaken the system after 48 hours or so.

The forecast track is slightly to the south of the official NHC forecast track.




FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

Init...15.0°N 67.1°W...130 kt
12 hr...15.2°N 69.7°W...135 kt
24 hr...15.6°N 72.1°W...140 kt
36 hr...16.2°N 74.6°W...140 kt
48 hr...16.9°N 77.1°W...125 kt
72 hr...18.5°N 82.0°W...135 kt

[wxmann_91]

18Z GFS Ensembles shifted WAY south...



http://wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/pan/track_ens.html

[hurricanefloyd5]

if any have or haven't notice most models are following the GFDL model ais the GFDL model picking up on a trough/front or and ULL???????

[artist]

Shot at 2007-08-17

[ExBailbonds]

all the models are saying dean should be heading just north of west but it is riding the 15 deg line as if it were a zip line and has been for quite a while now. I dont ever recall seeing a storm head on such a strait line before.

[Acral]

Here we go again. Research from the LSU ESL has indicated that dry air cores (ULLs or ULHs) can affect steering currents regarding tropical cyclones. I have predicted a large number of systems over the years with good accuracy. I was wrong with Katrina and Rita because they created their own environments. Further research is being done by Dr. Hsu at LSU regarding this matter. Science and reason rule, not supernatural nonsense. Thank you

You are absolutely right, but have you read the studies of animals fleeing before an extreme weather situation? Not paranormal psychology, simply hard-wired programming to respond to air pressure and environment changes. Regardless of your research, for now, there are several islands in the path of an EXTREME storm. Has your research team planned methods of aid? Has your team reviewed the socio-economic impact of a secondary hit 14 days out? (Jamaica, Haiti, etc.)

While I personally think that a TX/LA tropical event is more than likely, I am watching the models as well and they tell me that a Mexico hit is getting increasingly unlikely.

Research and education is all well and good. Helping those you can is much better.

[windnrain]

Why do people keep saying it will be a TX/LA event? I live in LA, and would like nothing more than to go through a storm (yes, I respect the power of nature, and I love the thrill of a hurricane. Like it or not, thats just how I feel). The thing is, NONE of the models that I've seen even bring it CLOSE to LA.

[la wave]

Soney, what is your problem dude. This board is based on science. What I said in my post was science, and nothing else. What is your problem?

[mobilebay]

all the models are saying dean should be heading just north of west but it is riding the 15 deg line as if it were a zip line and has been for quite a while now. I dont ever recall seeing a storm head on such a strait line before.

I do. Huricane andrew did it for a couple of days when it leveled homestead. It stayed on that Latitude for a while.

[CajunMama]

Why do people keep saying it will be a TX/LA event? I live in LA, and would like nothing more than to go through a storm (yes, I respect the power of nature, and I love the thrill of a hurricane. Like it or not, thats just how I feel). The thing is, NONE of the models that I've seen even bring it CLOSE to LA.

There was earlier model that had it coming in just west of new orleans, up through new iberia and lafayette. Ya must have missed that one

[wxmann_91]

What does SFMR say?

[windnrain]

Really? There was a model that had it comming through Lafayette? The only thing I see is the Clipper5 model, but thats just straight up climatology. IS there any real reason it would head this way though?

[Stormcenter]

all the models are saying dean should be heading just north of west but it is riding the 15 deg line as if it were a zip line and has been for quite a while now. I dont ever recall seeing a storm head on such a strait line before.

I do. Huricane andrew did it for a couple of days when it leveled homestead. It stayed on that Latitude for a while.

It sure did and looked like a buzzsaw when it crossed the Florida coastline.

[jhamps10]

Really? There was a model that had it comming through Lafayette? The only thing I see is the Clipper5 model, but thats just straight up climatology. IS there any real reason it would head this way though?

yeah one of the earlier GFDL runs had it going to Lafayette,

[windnrain]

It has obviously stabalized its course back down towards south Texas though. I hardly see one outlier rogue model as a concern to even suggest the track is going to be through Louisiana. It seems like the models are all in pretty good agreement of a south texas landfall. I dont see models this close to agreement very often.

[ExBailbonds]

all the models are saying dean should be heading just north of west but it is riding the 15 deg line as if it were a zip line and has been for quite a while now. I dont ever recall seeing a storm head on such a strait line before.

I do. Huricane andrew did it for a couple of days when it leveled homestead. It stayed on that Latitude for a while.

Well ya that was a fairly straight track thru the bahamas. I should have remebered that one since i was right smack in the eye of it and lost 3/4 of my roof over my head.

[vaffie]

In regard to Houston/Galveston, the latest model data gives one a little bit of confidence, since the models are now converging on the border region. The GFDL has moved south, the aviation ensemble has moved south so that half of them go north of the border and half go south, the GFS has moved north to near the border, the Canadian, the NOGAPS, the BAMs have all moved north too--indicating that the pattern has changed from a few hours ago. On the surface this seems like sort of good news for HGX, but in reality I don't think it's good at all. First of all it could be the start of a northward/eastward moving trend with each run, as we saw with Katrina, with Rita, and countless other storms, second of all, the upper level lows involved could end up ultimately being stronger than any of the models currently think, and third of all, the more north the storm ends up the more "northerly variables" enter the picture--ridge weaknesses, etc. So in a sense, what is more important than the GFDL, UKMET and Aviation ensemble models moving south is that the other globals are steadily moving north. Anyway, just some idle conjecture on my part.