ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[GoneBabyGone]

Note: The 8pm Sunday forecast is 135 kt which is NOT a Cat 5. Weather Underground is wrong.

In the grand scheme of things, is this forecast better or worse for NO than the previous forecast?

That's not the new forecast

It says 11 PM 8/30...

I don't know jack about forecasts or hurricanes, but I thought the timestamp indicated it was the new update.

[soonertwister]

Full Gustav update should be out soon. We'll see if that apparently long-anticipated right turn to the track occurs.

[gtalum]

Note: The 8pm Sunday forecast is 135 kt which is NOT a Cat 5. Weather Underground is wrong.

135 kts is 155.25 mph. Cat 5 is 155 mph and up.

[senorpepr]

It says 11 PM 8/30...

I don't know jack about forecasts or hurricanes, but I thought the timestamp indicated it was the new update.

When I posted, the 8pm track was present. It may have been a cache problem on my end.

[cpdaman]

ummm are you SURE that is not looking like that because it is getting out of the radar RANGE on sw side Cmon

If anything the suspect region that seems to have "dried up" on radar is closer to the radar site now than it was 1 1/2 hours ago.

fair enough tallywx i assumed you were using key west radar, if not then i was wrong

[Johnny]

The weather channel (i know, i know) just mentioned that Houston/Galveston may have to be inluded in the hurricane watch area because of a possible turn to the west. Are any of you seeing anything like that? From what I've heard all day, everyone's thinking the westward turn (if it happens) will be well after landfall...

Earliar on I think this could of been a possibility but Gus is now booking it pretty quickly so I don't see a dramatic westward hook at landfall. If their is a westward hook into Texas, I think it will be well after landfall. Just my 2 cents.

[senorpepr]

Note: The 8pm Sunday forecast is 135 kt which is NOT a Cat 5. Weather Underground is wrong.

135 kts is 155.25 mph. Cat 5 is 155 mph and up.

If the advisory has 135KT / 155 mph, NHC will call it category four.

If the advisory has 140KT / 160 mph, NHC will call it category five.

[cycloneye]

[cpdaman]

TWC keeps hinting they see "signs" hanna may go further WEST on tropic update last two hours

[jeff]

I was listening to a met being interviewed on a New Orleans radio station earlier this afternoon. She said that if/when gustav becomes a cat 5 he could actually erode the northwestern edge of the high which would lead to a little further easterly landfall. Reasoning was because the high is weaker and Gustav a much stronger low pressure system that is spinning counter-clockwise. Any fact to this. Not heard of this before.

Hey Jeff, have you heard of this before?

Sometimes intense hurricanes can bump ridges...but really not erode them. Regardless...we are within about 36-48 hours of landfall...the final solution is very clear...SC LA between Vermillion Bay over toward Houma...impacts will be the same...no more real need to watch every model run...NHC track as been very consisent for since Friday 400pm.

Time now to get the heck out of those surge zones.

[seeker6542]

deleted

[soonertwister]

It does look like the track was revised toward the east by around 10-20 miles...

[jeff]

The weather channel (i know, i know) just mentioned that Houston/Galveston may have to be inluded in the hurricane watch area because of a possible turn to the west. Are any of you seeing anything like that? From what I've heard all day, everyone's thinking the westward turn (if it happens) will be well after landfall...

Earliar on I think this could of been a possibility but Gus is now booking it pretty quickly so I don't see a dramatic westward hook at landfall. If their is a westward hook into Texas, I think it will be well after landfall. Just my 2 cents.

Yes Johnny...if at all...latest runs show more N motion after landfall with the ECMWF...may not be much a W hook...but just more of a slow down.

[Galvestongirl]

I am glad that we dont have to face this monster here...I am so sorry that NO has to go through this again...If I had my way..this cane would have already dried up.

[GoneBabyGone]

10-20 miles sure makes it look much worse. Sheesh.

Can anyone overlay the new track with a google map so I can see how close this track takes it to Baton Rouge?

[mawolf3]

Thank God I live in Tampa where we are protected from hurricanes or so it seems. Semi-sorta kidding. We are lucky

[MisUndrstd]

I was listening to a met being interviewed on a New Orleans radio station earlier this afternoon. She said that if/when gustav becomes a cat 5 he could actually erode the northwestern edge of the high which would lead to a little further easterly landfall. Reasoning was because the high is weaker and Gustav a much stronger low pressure system that is spinning counter-clockwise. Any fact to this. Not heard of this before.

I hope this is not true! Because Mississippian's would be stuck. The evacuees from New Orleans and surrounding parishes have clogged our roadways out of here. It would be a dooms day scenerio for many in South Mississippi if this thing decides to make a hard Eastern turn. We couldn't get out. You should see 1-10 going East it is horrifying and our other routes I-55 and 59 are backed up for miles. I don't wish it on Louisiana but at least they are getting out of the path of it.

[jinftl]

Interesting that the hurricane watch extends to areas not even in the 'cone'. But due to the expanse of hurricane force winds, it is not at all impossible that hurricane conditions could extend that far east if there is a landfall towards the right side of the cone.

On a side note, what poor placement of the legend box on the advisory...covers up areas under watches in the panhandle of fl.

[RL3AO]

Note: The 8pm Sunday forecast is 135 kt which is NOT a Cat 5. Weather Underground is wrong.

135 kts is 155.25 mph. Cat 5 is 155 mph and up.

Cat 5 is 136 kt (156 mph) and up.

[soonertwister]

10-20 miles sure makes it look much worse. Sheesh.

Can anyone overlay the new track with a google map so I can see how close this track takes it to Baton Rouge?

It's too close for anyone in that area to not be prepared to face winds well in excess of 100 mph, included sustained at 125 or more. Just way too close to stay around if you aren't prepared for that and gusts that might be 30 mph higher.

I hate Gustav already, dirty rotten *******.