Florida Weather

[TheStormExpert]

It looks like the pattern that meteorologist predicted for the winter of '12-'13 is finally trying to setup, of course it took until the very end of winter to finally try and maybe setup! Im just not buying any real cold temperature predictions until we closer to the end of this upcoming week.

[northjaxpro]

Just received a wind gust of 44 mph with a squall line moving through my region in north Jax. Pretty heavy rain falling at the current time.

[Sanibel]

Sea fog, balmy warm 73*. Calm. Warm in the upstairs of the house.

[FireRat]

I gotta admit I'm really surprised to see such a prolonged stretch of cold March weather being forecast. Just looked at accuweather's long range for South Florida (Fort Lauderdale) and saw highs of about 67-69 and lows from 49-52 for the first 10 days of the month averaged out.

This may not seem like much but remember, Ft. Lauderdale is a coastal city in the borderline-tropical sector of the peninsula...and this is a month not usually associated with winter down here! Areas inland might see lows near 40 if the above plays out! A little cooler trend, and the interior parts of South Florida may see frost in March...just when we thought winter was dead.

well, only time will tell I suppose

[northjaxpro]

Measured just over a 1/2 inch of rain as the frontal system finally limped through the Jax area late night.

That front will stall out just to our south today across north-central peninsula and that may pose a problem today down in Daytona for the big race. Looks like off and on rain will be occuring in that area through tonight.

More rain will develop late tonight and Monday across the panhandle, Big Bend and northern peninsula as the stalled front moves back north as a warm front in response to the strong storm system which will be moving northeast through the Plains on Monday. Heavy rainfall will be possible again in these areas, especially from the Tallahassee area west to Pensacola.

As for the major cooldown for late this week and into the weekend, models still in very good agreement with the deep trough locking in place across the Eastern U.S. It is also possible that the negative NAO reference in my post above may be around for awhile to keep temps below normal for the first 10 days or so in March for the peninsula. For now, it appears the strong northwest flow aloft with this upcoming pattern will likely favor the Euro runs with the drier solution compared against previous GFS runs from the past 24-36 hours. However, the GFS runs continue to trend colder for the event observing its run this morning. It will be interesting to see if the Euro will fall in line with the GFS in trending colder as the week progresses with its runs. If the Euro trends with the GFS, there will definitely be a high likelihood of seeing freezing temps across North Florida and potentially down into portions of North-Central Florida next weekend. Stay tuned!

[NDG]

Yeah, I noticed since yesterday that the Euro during the last couple of days has been showing for the trough to be a little positive tilted towards TX, that would keep the coldest temps towards the MS River valley and not towards FL, at least through next weekend. Keeping my fingers crossed the Euro is right versus the GFS.

[NDG]

Just picked up the most rain in a 30 min time frame so far this winter, half an inch in a nice heavy shower. Just what we needed to wash away some of the pollen

[gsytch]

Its been raining here for two hours, mostly light rain although it has just picked up some. Of course, it could not come on MOnday when I am back at work? No! Oh well, rain is usually good. I just keep watching the forecasts for next weekend and hoping it is not al that cold at my place. After all, this has been a warm winter so I hope it is not spoiled by a late cold snap.

[NDG]

The good news this morning is that the GFS has been trending a little bit towards the euro, in that the trough will be digging by the end of the week into the weekend with a positive tilt. Good news for overnight lows in which they will be higher but because of a positive tilt of the trough it could bring some cloud cover keeping daytime highs fairly low for this time of the year.
I have been seen around the net posts from wx forecasters saying that the citrus crop in central FL is in danger this weekend. Definitely not per the latest Euro and now GFS.

[northjaxpro]

The warm front is currently parked right along I-10 corridor and we are getting hammered with heavy rain and thunderstorms since about 4 a.m. this morning. Just took a quick measurement and already we have received over an inch and still raining heavy at this hour. This is a great thing because we needed this rain badly and we are getting it now. More rain into Tuesday as well as the cold front will push into North Florida during the day, and we may see possible severe weather as well during the day tomorrow across the region.

NDG, that is good news in that the GFS has for now stopped its trend of bringing the real coldest air to the peninsula as of this morning's run. However, we still have to keep watching this situation closely as the models can still swing back to a colder trend as the week progresses, especially considering how anomalous and deep the 500 mb trough across the Eastern U.S. is projected to become during this upcoming weekend.

[gsytch]

No worries on the Citrus. That is well past. But I have also been seeing the lows come up, too. Whatever, it will be nasty out and for an extended period. I just want winter over with!

[AdamFirst]

Summertime pattern over the southern peninsula...sea breeze collisions are causing thunderstorms to develop over the interior and push toward the coast

[gsytch]

..and by the weekend winter comes back! It is muggy out today.

Summertime pattern over the southern peninsula...sea breeze collisions are causing thunderstorms to develop over the interior and push toward the coast

[SFLcane]

..and by the weekend winter comes back! It is muggy out today.

Summertime pattern over the southern peninsula...sea breeze collisions are causing thunderstorms to develop over the interior and push toward the coast

In a big way state wide.

[northjaxpro]

It has been a remarkable day here in the Jax area. The frontal boundary never lifted north of the I-10 corridor. The front has been stationary all day long and all of North Florida has been receiving heavy rainfall. I just measured just under 3 inches of rain, which is by far the most rainfall measured here in a single day since last September 2012. Convergence set up real nice across the region, which training rainbands through the region all day. Also had some hail reports on Jax westside earlier this afternoon. Still raining moderately at this hour at my locale.

More rain will continue overnight as the frontal boundary should move north of the region by sunrise Tuesday as the Plains winter storm moves northeast toward the Ohio Valley region. A cold front extending from the storm system will move through the North Florida area during the day tomorrow. There is a good chance that a squall line may develop just ahead of the front and may bring a bout of severe weather to the region. Will watch that carefully tomorrow.

No major changes with the models with regards to the deep trough forecast to develop this weekend across the entire Eastern U.S. The positive height anomalies I am seeing the models showing over Greenland going out seven days really is making me inclined to believe that considering the time of year, some impressive cold is coming down the pike this weekend. The negative NAO looks to be finally evolving after taking all winter to come to fruition. Go figure.

[Macrocane]

Hi there! Here in Central America we're watching closely the same event, we could have the coldest March temperatures in years this weekend into early next week. Let's see how it evolves it will be very interesting.

[northjaxpro]

The pre-frontal squall line has already developed, which is currently across the Big Bend area and moving east. This will be watched closely for the potential for severe weather today across the northern peninsula. Tornado watch already in effect for that area of the state early this morning and I am sure SPC will likely shift those watches eastward as the day progresses. Also under Flood watch here in Jax area. I received right at 3.25 inches yesterday, and we are expecting an additional 1-2 inches today across the area.

The models are beginning to latch onto an interesting feature with regards to this weekend's cold snap. As I mentioned in my post on the top of this page, any time we have such a anomalous and extremely deep 500 mb upper trough to take shape, there are certain to be spokes of energy diving down through the base of the trough. Models often initially struggle with the timing and strength of these vort maxes until they get closer to the event. Now, looking at this morning's runs, a very potent cold core upper Low will be diving down southeast from the Plains late Thursday and move deep into the Southeast U.S. This will not only serve to sharpen the 500 mb trough Eastern US trough further, but this feature will bring sufficient mid level moisture into the region. So, look for clouds to increase during the day Friday and to hang around into Saturday across the northern peninsula. The air appears to be too dry at the lower levels for significant precip, but the clouds will likely keep us above freezing in north Florida at least for Saturday morning. The problem will be Sunday and Monday mornings as the skies clear and the High Pressure axis gets closer to the peninsula. That is when we could see freezing temps across North Florida. Overall, temperature averages will be at least 10-15 degrees below normal statewide by the end of this weekend.

As I was finishing this post, SPC has now issued Tornado watches for virtually all of Northeast Florida and much of the central peninsula up through until the mid afternoon. Stay alert today folks.

[Hurricane Alexis]

We had a low of 76 today. It literally feels like June outside

[Sanibel]

Woke up to a blustery 75* and humid. Very unusual night-time low.

[AdamFirst]

Squall line appears to be healthy as it enters in from the Gulf. Everyone across Central Florida should see a bit of rain from this.