ATL : INVEST 92L - DISCUSSION

[Thunder44]

NHC's definition is for closed surface circulation for an upgrade. And I still don't see any evidence of closed surface or LLC, on the visible loop. But I think there is a MLC near 14N 50W.

[bob rulz]

Whether or not it is or was a TD, it could still be upgraded in the postseason analysis.

I don't think whether it was declared or not is really that important except to give us something to talk about because it's clearly headed to its doom long before it reaches the Lesser Antilles. Even if it were a TD or even a TS then it was only for a very short amount of time.

[Nimbus]

Looks like another convective burst might be starting, they seem to be coming a little closer together now. Probably due to the warmer SST's.

[clfenwi]

Something to keep in mind regards "call/no call" is that at no point has either SSD or TPC rated the system above 1.5 in Dvorak classification. Only when there's been overwhelming evidence of a tropical depression/storm have they upgraded a system that's not a sustainable 2.0 +.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[bvigal]

Calls shouldn't be made (or not) for PR purposes though, they should be made on meteorological grounds only.

Absolutely correct, Cryomaniac! Hey, no doubt feds do some wierd stuff and it's all about how the 'spin' will help certain people or about payback of promises to others. The whole oil spill topic just breaks my heart. But, I don't see a reason to 'smell smoke' in the case of not classifying 92L. Have seen many of these kind of discussions occur in past years, when folks thought the NHC was refusing to call the'obvious'. Heck, I've been one of them, at certain times, lol!

(Hasn't been much love lost between NHC & 'the Penn Senators and their 'weather service' since RS proposed a bill to dissolve NWS a few years back - ok, not dissolve, but put data dissemination into private hands so we can pay for it! hey Rick, hey Arlen, enjoy your retirement from politics, !)

[Blown Away]

Calls shouldn't be made (or not) for PR purposes though, they should be made on meteorological grounds only.

Absolutely correct, Cryomaniac! Hey, no doubt feds do some wierd stuff and it's all about how the 'spin' will help certain people or about payback of promises to others. The whole oil spill topic just breaks my heart. But, I don't see a reason to 'smell smoke' in the case of not classifying 92L. Have seen many of these kind of discussions occur in past years, when folks thought the NHC was refusing to call the'obvious'. Heck, I've been one of them, at certain times, lol!

(Hasn't been much love lost between NHC & 'the Penn Senators and their 'weather service' since RS proposed a bill to dissolve NWS a few years back. hey Rick, hey Arlen, enjoy your retirement from politics, !)

Really, you don't think politics can influence a government program like the NHC? Yeah maybe 92L was temporarily a TD, the can upgrade it postseason if warranted.

[NDG]

NHC's definition is for closed surface circulation for an upgrade. And I still don't see any evidence of closed surface or LLC, on the visible loop. But I think there is a MLC near 14N 50W.

Here's where I see the now exposed LLC, it has left the mid level circulation behind now that it finally is encountering the stronger shear especially in the mid levels.

[Ivanhater]

If it continues to head westerly and take this path, it will be able to avoid most of the shear



96 hours

[Ivanhater]

New 12z GFS 54 HOURS

[hockeytim19]

I agree with some of the posts I've seen... and maybe this is better suited for a general discussion. Whether 92L was/is a tropical depression, it begs the question: when should the NHC classify a system as a tropical depression? In recent years, I can remember many times when the NHC would drag its feet time and time again in upgrading to a depression, or from a depression to a named storm.

If it's purely beacuse there is not enough sound meteorological evidence behind an upgrade, then fine. But if there's more going on in a government organization... after the 2005 season we had... after the oil spill in the gulf this year... then that's a completely different story. Unfortunately I think the bottom line is we have an instance of actual scientists working in a governmental organization trying to walk a fine line between science and PR... knowing full well that the media is salivating at the opportunity to jump all over a newly formed tropical system, whether its a lowly tropical depression being sheared apart... or a cat 5 hurricane bearing down on NOLA/Miami, etc.

While I do agree with JB to a point... it's a heck of a lot easier for AccuWeather to make a call on a system then it is for the NHC.

[cycloneye]

For the members that live in the Caribbean and still dont know,we have a thread for the Local Caribbean & Central-America Weather at U.S. & Caribbean Weather forum where you can post what is going on weatherwise in the islands,and it will be important for the next few days to know the observations from the different islands as 92L moves thru.Also,there are many web cams posted on the first post of the thread.

viewtopic.php?f=24&t=85676&p=1991635#p1991635

[Bocadude85]

If it continues to head westerly and take this path, it will be able to avoid most of the shear



96 hours

I am not sure how much of 92L will be left if it passes over the greater antilles

[Blown Away]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

IMO, the LLC looks intact but is in the process of losing the convection to the SE. I expect the LLC to be totally exposed in a few hours. The LLC seems to be moving a pretty good clip and maybe this will help keep the LLC intact when it encounters better conditions???

[TexasF6]

Not so fast my friend--the center may be undergoing a reformation to the SE under that burst which seems to have decent rotation. TC's often do this to protect themselves vs. shear.......

[tailgater]

Check out this five day loop out and draw your own conclusions, especially the last few frames in the eastern Caribbean.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real ... 1java.html

[Brent]

NHC still says NEXT!

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LOCATED ABOUT 625 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES ARE POORLY
ORGANIZED. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE
FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT... OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH.

[KWT]

Well this mornings convective burst was pretty interesting but as it has done nearly every day over the last few the convection is really weakening.

[tolakram]

It hit the wall and now the LLC is fully exposed.

[KWT]

Whilst I think most of us have said this at some point, I think this really could be it for 92L this time round, the shear is finally hitting the system, its done well to avoid it as long as it did.