ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE - DISCUSSION

[tailgater]

Looks like a very wet nite for the VI. P.R. and Leeward isles, tons of rain already.

And probably a good bit more to come as the satellite is lighting up

Any major flooding reports yet Luis?

[Weatherfreak000]

Seeing as how the NAM is the model pushing this Westward into the GOM...and the NAM only...I guess it's safe to say ROCK owes Ivanhater an apology...that is....unless he thinks the EURO is right.

[cycloneye]

Any major flooding reports yet Luis?

Only today I have posted at the Caribbean thread (Link at signature below) over 25 flood warnings and I fear many more will be issued tonight thru tommorow.

[Ivanhater]

Seeing as how the NAM is the model pushing this Westward into the GOM...and the NAM only...I guess it's safe to say ROCK owes Ivanhater an apology...that is....unless he thinks the EURO is right.

No apology, Rock and I go back a few years and we take the Euro vs other models debate lightly. Others however seem to get out of hand with it.

As far as this goes, it looks to be coming along nicely.

[tailgater]

Hoping yall stay safe and I'm going to checkout the Caribbean thread.
storm total loop.
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... A&loop=yes

[Wx_Warrior]

Aren't all models pushing 97L west in the GOM?

[jaxfladude]

Thoughts and prayers to those that are being impacted by Invest 97L and in the future as well(whatever that ends up being).

[Weatherfreak000]

Aren't all models pushing 97L west in the GOM?

Well, since you like being technical.



the answer is no. not a single of these models shows 97L at any point of time moving directly due west.

[vbhoutex]

I'm not nearly as bullish as I was earlier today on development of 97L into a TD or TS within the next 24-36 hours. It appears to me to have lost what was thought to be the beginnings of an LLC and it still looks like it is fighting shear. Besides that it still has to fight shear to its West also which is forecast to increase some. I have no doubt that 97L will eventually become Bonnie, but I think it has to move more WNW away from the inhibiting factors now affecting it. I also think it has been stationary or meandering in loops all day. The longer it stays near Hispaniola and PR the more disruption from land it will see especially since it is not a developed system. No one should let their guard down on this one, but I will be surprised if it is called tomorrow as a TD or TC. JMHO

[Stormcenter]

Where? It still looks like one big disorganized mess IMO.
A lot of bark and very little bite right now.

Perhaps we are seeing the beginings of a LLC developing....

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/flash-avn.html

[Macrocane]

I have the same feeling, it's not going to develop as fast as I thought it would earlier today it's still struggling to form a LLC it even has two areas of max vorticity although I still think it could become Bonnie this is just my UNOFFICIAL opinion.

[Weatherfreak000]

Here come the flip floppers. 12 Hours from now they'll all be proclaiming it'll be a major.

That's how the tide of TD development swings though. At some point all invests look terrible. WILMA looked terrible one night as an invest.

[vbhoutex]

Weatherfreak000 I don't think he was trying to be "technical". And yes the models are almost all taking 97L or what it becomes West into the GOM. Also the last model runs did shift a bit further West.
Yes I know exactly what he said. My bet is what I stated is what he meant. He is welcome to correct me if I am putting words in his fingers that he didn't mean.

[lebron23]

IMO, next update from the TWO this will either be at 50-60 percent.

[latitude_20]

It still looks like one big disorganized mess IMO.
A lot of bark and very little bite right now.

A lot of us said the very same thing the night before the TD that became Alex formed.

Just sayin!

[Stormcenter]

I wasn't on the 97L bandwagon this afternoon and I'm still not based
on what I'm seeing.

Here come the flip floppers. 12 Hours from now they'll all be proclaiming it'll be a major.

That's how the tide of TD development swings though. At some point all invests look terrible. WILMA looked terrible one night as an invest.

[Wx_Warrior]

You're right VB....Just not going to go back in forth with some who think they are always right.

Having an opinion and being able to express that here is what makes this site work. Free to post as they feel.

Most on here knows I am a 100% EURO hugger & that my brother is a pro met here in beaumont. I'm in the media too, print, and am just as interested in weather as others are on here...I just get an inside track on a few things, but never claim to know more than others.

Some posts need to be questioned when they don't make since...and others need to get off people's back if they don't agree with their unedcuated guesstimates.

It's all good in my book.

[Wx_Warrior]

IMO, it looks messy. Will it stay that way? IDK

The same was said about the 2nd system earlier in the GOM and it came of nothing major.

[Weatherfreak000]

Latest GFS doesn't even think it makes it into the GOM. Oh how things change.

[mvtrucking]

if that is the case will that give the high enough time to build back in and keep this on a westerly track?

Way too early to know for sure, best bet would be to just follow along and see what the more experienced posters & pro mets
take on things are.