Texas Winter 2015-2016

[SnowintheFalls]

The Wichita Falls area is often the forgotten child of North Texas! lol I believe most on here are from the bigger city areas in Texas and the only other user from this area that I've seen is Yukon Cornelius. We were unfortunately on the dividing line of the cold and warmth with the last system and we lost out. From what I understand, if the low pushes to the south then we should be included in the nasty wintry stuff. Our local mets seem to be all over the place on the placement of the low. I know it's still a good ways out meteorologically but I'd love to hear some other predictions or model possibilities for the Falls area.


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[gpsnowman]

Goodness aggiecutter, that was a serious storm. Looks like there will be some avid model, Storm2k watching this weekend. It is going to be interesting for sure. The weather dynamics across the state of Texas in the winter never cease to amaze me.

[Ntxw]

The Wichita Falls area is often the forgotten child of North Texas! lol I believe most on here are from the bigger city areas in Texas and the only other user from this area that I've seen is Yukon Cornelius. We were unfortunately on the dividing line of the cold and warmth with the last system and we lost out. From what I understand, if the low pushes to the south then we should be included in the nasty wintry stuff. Our local mets seem to be all over the place on the placement of the low. I know it's still a good ways out meteorologically but I'd love to hear some other predictions or model possibilities for the Falls area.


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Wichita Falls will probably see snow and blowing snow from this storm. And it may accumulate. Euro is conservative at an inch or two however Euro ENS means is anywhere from 3-5"

GFS is a foot+ in the falls

MAF, LBB, AMA, DYX, and SPS are all areas that will soon likely be in winter storm watches or blizzard watches imo

The storm is coming into within 100 hour range now, we can start looking at the NAM to add to the soup. And before all that there is a serious flooding threat of training cells in north and ne Texas where the 850mb front stalls somebody could see an 8-10+ rainfall total , alongside all of the potential severe weather to the south. Just a myriad of all kinds of weather, busy late weekend ahead.

[SnowintheFalls]

The Wichita Falls area is often the forgotten child of North Texas! lol I believe most on here are from the bigger city areas in Texas and the only other user from this area that I've seen is Yukon Cornelius. We were unfortunately on the dividing line of the cold and warmth with the last system and we lost out. From what I understand, if the low pushes to the south then we should be included in the nasty wintry stuff. Our local mets seem to be all over the place on the placement of the low. I know it's still a good ways out meteorologically but I'd love to hear some other predictions or model possibilities for the Falls area.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Wichita Falls will probably see snow and blowing snow from this storm. And it may accumulate. Euro is conservative at an inch or two however Euro ENS means is anywhere from 3-5"

GFS is a foot+ in the falls

MAF, LBB, AMA, DYX, and SPS are all areas that will soon likely be in winter storm watches or blizzard watches imo

The storm is coming into within 100 hour range now, we can start looking at the NAM to add to the soup. And before all that there is a serious flooding threat of training cells in north and ne Texas where the 850mb front stalls somebody could see an 8-10+ rainfall total , alongside all of the potential severe weather to the south. Just a myriad of all kinds of weather, busy late weekend ahead.

Thanks NTXW! There are so many variant weather possibilities with this system that I hope local area mets err on the side of caution and make sure the proper emphasis is put on the severity of all the potential dangers. Whether it be flooding rains or blizzard conditions, I just hope all are given enough time to prepare appropriately! I've seen some comparing this system to 2009 and that one caused plenty of chaos.

[SouthernMet]

Im gonna call it right now... Someone in NW tx is going to see some INSANE drifts from this. 3-4 ft is not out of the question, where the deformation bands set up.

[Ntxw]

The south and east shift of the ULL and surface has been so evident on the GFS. For example a few nights ago it was a shoo in for Amarillo to Dodge City KS to dig out of snow. Now Amarillo is on the northern end and Dodge City very little at all. 0Z GFS "Zone" is Midland to Wichita Falls

[TheProfessor]

It looks like Wichita Falls gets buried on the 0z GFS. Very sharp snow gradient on the eastern edge too.

[Ntxw]

It looks like Wichita Falls gets buried on the 0z GFS. Very sharp snow gradient on the eastern edge too.

Screams of 09 in terms of model shifting "Panhandle to KS". Abilene-Wichita Falls-OKC line

[Brent]

Come on... just a little more southeast.

Check out the 15 inch or so gradient over Wise County...

[TheProfessor]

I found this website that shows the counties with the snow and the GFS has an inch all the way to the eastern half of Denton using that site's conversion. If the models are misjudging the timing or how cold the shallow air is then this will be a nightmare to forecast because the timing of the below freezing air could be a difference of snow flurries to DFW being shut down due to heavy snow. Very sharp gradient due too sharp temp gradients. http://www.americanwx.com/testboard2/mo ... n_hour=126

[TheProfessor]

The Meteogram for that website shows 8.4 inches of snow for Decatur, I'm not sure how accurate their conversions are.

[Ntxw]

I found this website that shows the counties with the snow and the GFS has an inch all the way to the eastern half of Denton using that site's conversion. If the models are misjudging the timing or how cold the shallow air is then this will be a nightmare to forecast because the timing of the below freezing air could be a difference of snow flurries to DFW being shut down due to heavy snow. Very sharp gradient due too sharp temp gradients. http://www.americanwx.com/testboard2/mo ... n_hour=126

Forecast nightmare repeated. 1. Areas that were not depicted to get snow (further south and east). 2. Areas the NWS has been thinking to get snow may end up with much less further north

[TheProfessor]

I found this website that shows the counties with the snow and the GFS has an inch all the way to the eastern half of Denton using that site's conversion. If the models are misjudging the timing or how cold the shallow air is then this will be a nightmare to forecast because the timing of the below freezing air could be a difference of snow flurries to DFW being shut down due to heavy snow. Very sharp gradient due too sharp temp gradients. http://www.americanwx.com/testboard2/mo ... n_hour=126

Forecast nightmare repeated. 1. Areas that were not depicted to get snow (further south and east). 2. Areas the NWS has been thinking to get snow may end up with much less further north

Would the track of the low of the 0z GFS be better for forming a Costal Low?

[Ntxw]

Would the track of the low of the 0z GFS be better for forming a Costal Low?

Yes, it would also prevent the "NW" movement of the ULL feature as the two tries to stack. In fact this run of the GFS is essentially a coastal low moving North/NE out of coastal TX

We still have a lot of watching to do for the low movement. At this rate Austin may just get lots of freezing drizzle

[Ntxw]

The Canadian is still the furthest south and almost ideal

[Yukon Cornelius]

Oh wow. The 00z GFS buries Wichita and Clay county. That would be absolutely insane if that actually verified.

[SouthernMet]

Latest GFS has a bullseye of 32" snow accumulation near Wichita Falls.
Guidance has consistently showed an area getting incredible amounts over 2 feet, but we won't know where exactly until it happens.

As we all know, every dynamic has to come in to place. Where that gradient sets up, locations west of it will get hammered, east will get rain. Wouldn't be surprised at all to see some areas get 6-8" with just a county east getting little to nothing.

[Ntxw]

Latest GFS has a bullseye of 32" snow accumulation near Wichita Falls.
Guidance has consistently showed an area getting incredible amounts over 2 feet, but we won't know where exactly until it happens.

The further east/south the snow shifts, the more incredible some of the snow amounts will be because of richer moisture and closer to the coastal low.

[TheProfessor]

The CMC on that website has 3 inches of snow for Denton and most of Collin County

[TheProfessor]

Latest GFS has a bullseye of 32" snow accumulation near Wichita Falls.
Guidance has consistently showed an area getting incredible amounts over 2 feet, but we won't know where exactly until it happens.

The further east/south the snow shifts, the more incredible some of the snow amounts will be because of richer moisture and closer to the coastal low.

So you're saying that if it were to go far enough south and east (in an ideal situation, which probably isn't likely) there could be outrageous snowfall amounts in or just west of the Metroplex?