ATL: IRMA - Models

[AutoPenalti]

Remember, this is only one model run of the EURO.

Well...it's actually five runs of the Euro now.

The spreads of those runs is 200 or so miles, relative agreement for something so far out in the future.

[RL3AO]

The spreads of those runs is 200 or so miles, relative agreement for something so far out in the future.

Plus those weren't at the same time. I was taking the 240 hour forecast of each run.

[northjaxpro]

I meant to say this is just the 12Z run of today RL3AO in particular in which we are discussing currently.

[AutoPenalti]

The spreads of those runs is 200 or so miles, relative agreement for something so far out in the future.

Plus those weren't at the same time. I was taking the 240 hour forecast of each run.

Which is concerning. I would love to see what GFS says after this. Next run comes out in an hour or so.

[KWT]

:eek:

Solid agreement with the ECM there!

By the way the ECM control run is IDENTICAL out to 168hrs to the main ECM, like other than it being weaker it could be the exact same track.

[HURRICANELONNY]

Just a run. I believe and it's just my opinion. That when a model shows a hurricane hitting me this far out it ends up 1000 miles away. Models will flip flop until there is a consensus. Always be prepared for the worst but hope for the best.

[Kingarabian]

:eek:

[img]https://s26.postimg.org/t842ormft/ukm2.2017090612.168.lant.troplant.prp.fcst.gentr.png[img]

Solid agreement with the ECM there!

By the way the ECM control run is IDENTICAL out to 168hrs to the main ECM, like other than it being weaker it could be the exact same track.

The EPS control is low-res. So when you see 980mb on it, usually means it's a major hurricane. So I would say their intensity and track is very similar.

[RL3AO]

FWIW, someone at GFDL told me on Twitter that the GFS replacement model is similar to the Euro. No images and it's a model thats two years from being operational, so don't go crazy with that info.

[ronjon]

FWIW, someone at GFDL told me on Twitter that the GFS replacement model is similar to the Euro. No images and it's a model thats two years from being operational, so don't go crazy with that info.

About time! Why they hadn't moved closer to the European code for so many years now was a mystery to me as its clearly been more accurate - especially at longer time scales.

[KWT]

:eek:

[img]https://s26.postimg.org/t842ormft/ukm2.2017090612.168.lant.troplant.prp.fcst.gentr.png[img]

Solid agreement with the ECM there!

By the way the ECM control run is IDENTICAL out to 168hrs to the main ECM, like other than it being weaker it could be the exact same track.

The EPS control is low-res. So when you see 980mb on it, usually means it's a major hurricane. So I would say their intensity and track is very similar.

I know, I just made that point as its the only real way you can tell the two apart at that point in time!!

Control ends up raking the Bahamas as it heads NW. Not seen beyond about 288hrs yet.

[RL3AO]

FWIW, someone at GFDL told me on Twitter that the GFS replacement model is similar to the Euro. No images and it's a model thats two years from being operational, so don't go crazy with that info.

About time! Why they hadn't moved closer to the European code for so many years now was a mystery to me as its clearly been more accurate - especially at longer time scales.

Sorry. Just to be clear. I meant the model run of Irma is closer to the Euro, not the model code/physics/ect. It has a hurricane in the Bahamas in 10 days.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/Weathernerds/status/902982775887863811

[ronjon]

FWIW, someone at GFDL told me on Twitter that the GFS replacement model is similar to the Euro. No images and it's a model thats two years from being operational, so don't go crazy with that info.

About time! Why they hadn't moved closer to the European code for so many years now was a mystery to me as its clearly been more accurate - especially at longer time scales.

Sorry. Just to be clear. I meant the model run of Irma is closer to the Euro, not the model code/physics/ect. It has a hurricane in the Bahamas in 10 days.

I got it but its still encouraging at least with this example that the experimental replacement is similar to the ECM.

[chaser1]

 https://twitter.com/Weathernerds/status/902982775887863811

Based on that, I'd say Miami is probably the safest place to be right now LOL. Oh, it may well be in the general neighborhood but.... think we'll see continuity this far out?? We all know how much shifting the models will go through.

[ronjon]

ECM ensemble runs show that the operational is smack dab in the middle at 240 hours so its not an outlier.

http://weathernerds.org/tc_guidance/storm.html?tcid=AL11

[Siker]

FWIW, the Euro control run (which was very similar to the OP Euro through 240hr as was discussed) sends a major into Cape Cod.

[Kingarabian]

932 is the lowest it'll go in my opinion, closer to the Euro. GFS always likes to show insane low pressures that end up being far too low.

[Hurricane Andrew]

FWIW, the Euro control run (which was very similar to the OP Euro through 240hr as was discussed) sends a major into Cape Cod.

That's close enough to scare me in SENY...yikes

[KWT]

ECM ensemble runs show that the operational is smack dab in the middle at 240 hours so its not an outlier.

http://weathernerds.org/tc_guidance/storm.html?tcid=AL11

Do you know what I'm also noticing is how many of the GFS ensembles take this near to 20-21N in the first 48hrs, this means the bend down doesn't get as far south and therefore makes it more likely this gets picked up.
ECM ensembles are nearly all more shallow in their curve towards the WNW.

[HurricaneEric]

Put me down at 924mb for lowest pressure with Irma. I'm drinking the model kool-aid on intensity.

As for the EPS members, that is one tight cluster (in the red circle) in the Central Bahamas for those being around hours 192-240. Not saying thats set in stone of course, but if that does verify, I don't think the Eastern CONUS is safe.

As it is, I'm really starting to worry about the northern Lesser Antilles, PR, Hispaniola, and the Bahamas.

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