ATL: MARCO - Remnants - Discussion

[GCANE]

Anticyclone is making a quick move west.
Looks like its trying to get over the CoC.

[xironman]

The visibles are showing low level convergence and the start of banding. It has 36 hours to go before being impacted by the shear and dry air from the trough. I could see a strong TS in the Yucatan channel.

[Frank P]

Been moving just west of due north all afternoon, keeps it up it will shoot the Yucatán Straits and not hit any land...

[Aric Dunn]

its coming to a point to where it may get pulled north into the southern gulf..

it sure looks like it has got caught in the trough.. this throws a huge wrench in everything.

[GCANE]

Looking how current conditions are evolving and what some of the models are trending to, I am estimating a better than 50% chance the system will be under the influence of an Anticyclone Rossby Wave Break when it is in the west GoM.
Its a given that CAPE will be very high.
There may be a small chance of dry-air entrainment from the Mexican desert.

[xironman]

The models seem to show the trough lifting out, the more east it looks like the better the conditions.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1296904364938989568

[Kingarabian]

Since the track is a big question mark, all residents in states surrounding the GOM should be prepping. Harvey and Michael were good examples of the models initially showing weaker systems only to adjust to a extreme scenario.

[GCANE]

Rain rate over the CoC has been steadily increasing all afternoon.
No spectacular towers, just a steady brew.

[GCANE]

The two big loaded cannons for a system when its in the west GoM is the persistent high CAPE pool off the TX coast and the pullin of high TPW air thru the IoT.

[captainbarbossa19]

Since the track is a big question mark, all residents in states surrounding the GOM should be prepping. Harvey and Michael were good examples of the models initially showing weaker systems only to adjust to a extreme scenario.

I hope before this storm makes landfall, it does not resemble either one of those storms. I am hoping dry air and wind shear keeps this weaker.

[Frank P]

Convection continues to fire off on the eastern side close to the core of the system.. a couple of small hot towers developing.. still moving north... looks a lot better than Laura... albeit a very small core of a system... which as stated earlier, could be good for intensification .. more interesting to watch on sat than that mess of Laura.

[xironman]

The low levels are getting nice and circular. The mid level just needs to catch up.

[aspen]

The NHC is just as stumped as we are over why TD14 isn’t strengthening or producing significant convection despite an otherwise favorable environment.

[wxman22]

As expected track has shifted more west.

[shiny-pebble]

 https://twitter.com/JackSillin/status/1296905424315338752




 https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1296909693911289864

[GCANE]

SREF starts to blow apart the trof this time tomorrow into a cutoff low.
HREF is pointing to the same.
Makes sense to me given how it currently looks.

[xironman]

The NHC is just as stumped as we are over why TD14 isn’t strengthening or producing significant convection despite an otherwise favorable environment.

I am not sure what they were expecting, it was sitting in a pool of low level dry air that needed to be mixed out.

[Kingarabian]

As expected track has shifted more west.

https://i.ibb.co/PFJxBBv/204312-5day-cone-with-line-and-wind.png

Sorta odd intensity track IMO. I think if it manages to become a hurricane it lasts as a hurricane the whole way and not just for 12 hours.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

[wx98]

As expected track has shifted more west.

https://i.ibb.co/PFJxBBv/204312-5day-cone-with-line-and-wind.png

Sorta odd intensity track IMO. I think if it manages to become a hurricane it lasts as a hurricane the whole way and not just for 12 hours.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Probably dry air near the coast is the thinking.