ATL: SAM - Remnants - Discussion

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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#761 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Sep 25, 2021 1:23 pm

Image

Assuming W is .5 degrees embedded, T7.0.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#762 Postby Iceresistance » Sat Sep 25, 2021 1:24 pm

InfernoFlameCat wrote:I think right now Hugo is the best comparison to Sam.


Or Dorian
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#763 Postby zzh » Sat Sep 25, 2021 1:25 pm

AL, 18, 2021092518, , BEST, 0, 131N, 481W, 115, 948, HU,
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#764 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Sat Sep 25, 2021 1:26 pm

Iceresistance wrote:
InfernoFlameCat wrote:I think right now Hugo is the best comparison to Sam.


Or Dorian

Why Dorian? Dorian peaked over the Bahamas while Hugo hit CAT5 near where Sam is right now.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#765 Postby Iceresistance » Sat Sep 25, 2021 1:27 pm

InfernoFlameCat wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:
InfernoFlameCat wrote:I think right now Hugo is the best comparison to Sam.


Or Dorian

Why Dorian? Dorian peaked over the Bahamas while Hugo hit CAT5 near where Sam is right now.


Dorian had a similar structure compared to Sam, but Sam's structure now closer to Jose 2017 . . .
Last edited by Iceresistance on Sat Sep 25, 2021 1:27 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#766 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Sat Sep 25, 2021 1:27 pm

zzh wrote:
AL, 18, 2021092518, , BEST, 0, 131N, 481W, 115, 948, HU,

4 mb drop per hour since the last advisory.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#767 Postby WiscoWx02 » Sat Sep 25, 2021 1:28 pm

It's........so beautiful. A lot of lightning in it's core which I have heard means it's going ham. With a satellite presentation like the one Sam has, I don't think category 5 is too far out of reach.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#768 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Sep 25, 2021 1:29 pm

AL, 18, 202109251800, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1310N, 4810W, , 1, 115, 2, 948, 2, DVRK, , , , , , , , , , , , , , L, TAFB, AR, VI, 1, 6060 /////, , , GOES16, CSC, T,


Wtf TAFB. I know they do hourly analysis but they’re usually pretty liberal with thickness and pretty T7.0 happy.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#769 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Sat Sep 25, 2021 1:30 pm

My prediction that this would reach 140-150 knots looks good! I just figured it would take a little longer before Sam was getting close to that.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#770 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Sep 25, 2021 1:30 pm

Iceresistance wrote:
InfernoFlameCat wrote:I think right now Hugo is the best comparison to Sam.


Or Dorian


Dorian’s eye was much warmer and circular than Sam’s is or will likely ever be.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#771 Postby galaxy401 » Sat Sep 25, 2021 1:32 pm

Sam is making a go at it. I think it's a little stronger then 115 kts at the moment (I'm thinking 120-125). Big ACE maker for sure.
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Got my eyes on moving right into Hurricane Alley: Florida.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#772 Postby kevin » Sat Sep 25, 2021 1:32 pm

zzh wrote:
AL, 18, 2021092518, , BEST, 0, 131N, 481W, 115, 948, HU,


Second cat 4 of the season. Let's see if it can become a cat 5 as well one of these days. I'm interested to see what recon finds. Considering the rapid pace at which Sam is improving as well as the fact that it'll still take a while before recon arrives I'll be quite bullish and say 125 kt.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#773 Postby aspen » Sat Sep 25, 2021 1:35 pm

The NHC has frequently gone 5 kt above best track estimates in the following advisory. Based on this and how rapidly Sam is improving, I think they’ll go with 120 kt instead of 115 kt. It’s starting to look like a 130+ kt system, but I’m not convinced it’s there just yet.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#774 Postby Iceresistance » Sat Sep 25, 2021 1:36 pm

WMG has been officially detected . . . It's now a T7.0 based on that . . .


Image
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#775 Postby Highteeld » Sat Sep 25, 2021 1:37 pm

115 knots is too conservative
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Very useful information on the Dvorak Technique --

https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#776 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Sat Sep 25, 2021 1:38 pm

Highteeld wrote:115 knots is too conservative
Remember that the winds often lag behind Satellite presentation.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#777 Postby Ubuntwo » Sat Sep 25, 2021 1:45 pm

Highteeld wrote:115 knots is too conservative

Absolutely. We have seen this exact process many times over the past couple years. This structure produces amazing mixing to surface and those winds are probably >=130kt.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#778 Postby skyline385 » Sat Sep 25, 2021 1:46 pm

Iceresistance wrote:WMG has been officially detected . . . It's now a T7.0 based on that . . .


https://s9.gifyu.com/images/GOES16_1km_ir_202109251825_8.50_17.00_-53.75_-39.75_bd1_ltng16_hgwy_warn_latlon_weathernerds.png


Think you meant CMG?
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#779 Postby Iceresistance » Sat Sep 25, 2021 1:48 pm

skyline385 wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:WMG has been officially detected . . . It's now a T7.0 based on that . . .


https://s9.gifyu.com/images/GOES16_1km_ir_202109251825_8.50_17.00_-53.75_-39.75_bd1_ltng16_hgwy_warn_latlon_weathernerds.png


Think you meant CMG?


Warm Medium Gray at the Eye . . .
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Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#780 Postby skyline385 » Sat Sep 25, 2021 1:50 pm

Iceresistance wrote:
skyline385 wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:WMG has been officially detected . . . It's now a T7.0 based on that . . .


https://s9.gifyu.com/images/GOES16_1km_ir_202109251825_8.50_17.00_-53.75_-39.75_bd1_ltng16_hgwy_warn_latlon_weathernerds.png


Think you meant CMG?


Warm Medium Gray at the Eye . . .


ahh ok makes sense
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