ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[eastcoastFL]

Sooo. I am posting this here since it is relevant to the current situation. the HWRF has been very persistent with a second meso vort working to the surface and taking over within the next 12 hours( 4 runs ago it was 24 hours)... the fact that the LLC today has barely moved is interesting. This latest convective burst may have produced a meso vort above the surface that may hold together and move WSW like the HWRF keeps showing.

Have to watch the motion closely as the timing and strength of the trough and angle of approach are rather razor thin.

https://i.ibb.co/0Qf77sx/hwrf-z850-vort-09-L-fh0-12.gif

How might that effect the track? If it moves WSW does that slow down the track making it so the storm could miss the trough and sit over the gulf for a bit before tracking north?

it is possible.. hard to say as there are a lot of things that can change.

I can’t remember what storm it was but a few years back you noticed some short wave coming all the way down to Alabama that nobody saw and said it would play a role in the trajectory of the track and sure did down the road. Ever since then I’ve been looking for stuff like that and how it can come into play. I guess we’re in wait and see mode with this one.

[cycloneye]

Hello Ian on 00z Best Track.

AL, 09, 2022092400, , BEST, 0, 148N, 715W, 35, 1005, TS

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal092022.dat

[galaxy401]

Recon must have found TS winds in the system then. Officially our I storm! Be prepared!

[eastcoastFL]

This might be a TS sooner than expected

[stormhunter7]

Didnt GFS have the other day a center form on the southern side of the wave as it moves west across middle of the Caribbean? Wonder if that's what I'm seeing on Sat. Clearly an 850-700mb swirl on the SW side of the depression?

[eastcoastFL]

Hello Ian on 00z Best Track.

AL, 09, 2022092400, , BEST, 0, 148N, 715W, 35, 1005, TS

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal092022.dat

Pressure down to 1005mb and TS? I guess they got that recon data. I guess they’ll upgrade at 11pm?

[NAVAIDNICK]

Good for you. At least this is the slowest month of the year on the island as far as tourists goes, usually.

Our Wal-Mart is already out of gas AND water!

Gonna be a crazy week-end! Glad I'm not going anywhere....

I went to Publix in palm city an hour ago. I got the last 6 jugs of water, everything else was gone. But water has been in limited supply here for a while for some reason.

I went to the Publix in North Port and also got one of the last cases of the bottled water. They really only had the over priced "fu fu" water still left. Employee said that she didn't know when or if they would be getting more. I think because of the slow season, stores weren't expecting this and didn't increase their stock levels or sold through their early season supplies. I have to believe they are diverting stock to likely affected areas but with the forecast track so wide, I doubt much will make it to any individual store which is going to leave some people high and dry. A couple people I talked to didn't even realize there was a storm in the Caribbean much less one that was targeting FL. I do have one neighbor that started putting up his shutters but I would not be surprised if we see the news full of people who can't find bottled water.

[AdamFirst]

I stopped by a Publix in PSL and they were already out of cases of water. I got a few gallon jugs and a few small 8 pack bottles. I was going to wait for gas but the lines have already started, so I went and filled up.

[skyline385]

 https://twitter.com/ZachCoveyTV/status/1573405371636629513

[cycloneye]

https://twitter.com/ZachCoveyTV/status/1573405371636629513?s=20&t=Ds5DgLiqxKQyEu2mWmGPiQ

But what happened with this evenings mission that shortly after departing St Croix, the transmisión went out?

[Poonwalker]

I'm watching from St. Petersburg. Definitely a concern for Tampa Bay region. Glad that things were normal at Lowe's and grocery stores today. People in the lowest zones have to think about running from a Cat 3, even though we're well north of the NHC track center. I can't personally rule out anywhere from Crystal River to Everglades City right now. If there's three or four NHC forecasts shifting it away, then I start to relax.

Really interested in the trough position, development, timing. Wondering how similar this is to Charley 2004 setup.

With a northwest-ish approach, whatever part of Florida ends up right of the center will get slammed with surge and onshore wind. I worry for the Lower Keys and everybody at sea level up to the Panhandle. Being on the right side is the nightmare scenario for downtown Tampa and communities all around Tampa Bay.

It’s too far out to handle who will get the bad side. Cone of uncertainty is huge right now. Best guesstimate is Tampa will get some weather from this for sure but a direct hit can’t be predicted until the last day as evidenced by Charlie. That one changed course within a 12 hr window

[Javlin]

Didnt GFS have the other day a center form on the southern side of the wave as it moves west across middle of the Caribbean? Wonder if that's what I'm seeing on Sat. Clearly an 850-700mb swirl on the SW side of the depression?

I am seeing the same thing the tail is well removed from the NW part.Have to see how it plays out.

[NorthPalm-Rainman]

I stopped by a Publix in PSL and they were already out of cases of water. I got a few gallon jugs and a few small 8 pack bottles. I was going to wait for gas but the lines have already started, so I went and filled up.

Costco in West Palm has tons of cases of water. I stocked up yesterday and there was not much interest in water there. They had more than usual so maybe they are more prepared than other places?

[Iceresistance]

https://twitter.com/ZachCoveyTV/status/1573405371636629513?s=20&t=Ds5DgLiqxKQyEu2mWmGPiQ

But what happened with this evenings mission that shortly after departing St Croix, the transmisión went out?

https://i.imgur.com/fiyBVUv.png

I believe that they unintentionally turned off the transmission data for the public.

[skyline385]

https://twitter.com/ZachCoveyTV/status/1573405371636629513?s=20&t=Ds5DgLiqxKQyEu2mWmGPiQ

But what happened with this evenings mission that shortly after departing St Croix, the transmisión went out?

https://i.imgur.com/fiyBVUv.png

No clue tbh, cant find anything about it. Maybe its still on recon just not transmitting?

[skyline385]

I stopped by a Publix in PSL and they were already out of cases of water. I got a few gallon jugs and a few small 8 pack bottles. I was going to wait for gas but the lines have already started, so I went and filled up.

Costco in West Palm has tons of cases of water. I stocked up yesterday and there was not much interest in water there. They had more than usual so maybe they are more prepared than other places?

heh Costco in West Palm is where I found water during Dorian as well after the shelves were emptied everywhere else

[Gums]

Rats!
Some of us in the Panhandle had our hearts set on a Hermine II. Guess we settle for Ian /sarc

Hope it stays at low end of the scale.

Pays to have more than one propane tank for the BBQ and fill those used water bottles during the spring to avoid the pre-storm rush..... saves $$$ too

Gums sends

[Aric Dunn]

Some deep towers to fire to the WSW of the "original llc" under the canopy well away from the center.. could be that reformation. wish we had recon

[Jonny]

I stopped by a Publix in PSL and they were already out of cases of water. I got a few gallon jugs and a few small 8 pack bottles. I was going to wait for gas but the lines have already started, so I went and filled up.

I work at a Publix in the panhandle.

Aside from one elderly woman buying alcohol, no one mentioned TD9 today.

Didn't sell any large amounts of water, and a few people only mentioned that milk and creamer was scarce.

[sma10]

I stopped by a Publix in PSL and they were already out of cases of water. I got a few gallon jugs and a few small 8 pack bottles. I was going to wait for gas but the lines have already started, so I went and filled up.

Costco in West Palm has tons of cases of water. I stocked up yesterday and there was not much interest in water there. They had more than usual so maybe they are more prepared than other places?

heh Costco in West Palm is where I found water during Dorian as well after the shelves were emptied everywhere else

A good time to remind everyone that there's a great alternative in the event that stores run out of water: your sink. Prior to the storm fill up any and every jug in your house with the free stuff